SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Application of Grain Size Analysis to Study Sedimentary Environment of Sand Dune in the Vicinity of Tumen River

The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment …     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

CCD联合平差方法及其初步实例检验

在常规照相天体测量工作中 ,对暗天体的定位是采用逐级定标星过渡的方法实现的。由于星表系统差和局部差的存在 ,最终定位结果可能包含难以把握的误差积累。在CCD小视场观测情况下时常难以找到足够数量的定标星。鉴于此 ,推导了CCD观测联合平差方法的严格矢量表达式 ,以期通过共同星的过渡 ,实现大天区统一平差。原理上此方法可实现相对于河外天体的定位 ,以削弱星表系统差和局部差对定位结果的影响。讨论了CCD联合平差方法实现中的问题 ,包括底片常数模型选择、切点位置改正、共同星的较差改正和法方程解算方法等 ,并分析了具体的处理措施。用实例初步检验了CCD联合平差方法的效果 ,表明通过对多张CCD观测的联合平差 ,可以削弱单张CCD观测参考星数目过少、单张CCD观测参考星分布不均、个别参考星存在位置偏差和局部区域参考星存在系统性位置偏差等不利因素对归算结果的影响 ,进而达到扩大视场和提高归算精度的目的     

卫星星座与编队飞行问题综述

卫星应用的日益发展需要由多颗卫星组成的卫星系统(形成各种类型的星座)来替代单颗卫星，这就给卫星轨道力学的应用增加了一些新内容。重点阐述了卫星星座整体结构的演化、卫星星座编队飞行中的星-星相对几何构形及其保持问题，以及星座卫星定轨所涉及的测控方式和天地基网联合定轨问题。这些内容都是卫星星座轨道力学中的重要组成部分。     

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.     

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NDVI PROFILE AND THE GROWING STATUS OF CROPS

Daily and ten-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of crops were retrieved from meteorological statellite NOAA AVHRR images ,The temporal variations of the NDVI were analyzed during the whole growing season,and thus the principle of the interaction between NDIV profile and the growing status of crops was discussed,As a case in point,the relationship between integral NDVI and winter wheat yield of Henan Province in 1999 had been analyzed.By putting integral NDVI values of 60 sample counties into the winter wheat yield-integral NDVI coordination,scattering map was plotted. It demonstrated that integral NDVI had a close relation with winter wheat yield.These relation could be described with linear,cubic polynomial ,and exponential regression,and the cubic polynomial regression was the best way,In general ,NDVI reflects growing status of green vegetation ,so crop monitoring and crop yield estimation could be realized by using remote sensing technique on the basis of time serial NDVI data together with agriculture calendars.     

Geological environment conflicts of Kunming Basin and its urban sustainable development

Kunming Basin locates middle of Yunnan altiplano and has a particularity in geography,topographic and geological environment.With the urban dilation quickly,add the reason of the unreasonable city layout,conflicts between environment and urban resources consumption become shrill increasingly.It is human being activities that lead to vulnerability and depravation of geological environment in local.Take a few examples on geological environment to expatiate relationship between urban construction and geological environment carrying capacity,and find a way how to make a better plan for urban sustainable development to achieve new balance between man and nature in local.     

论社会共同价值观

社会共同价值观是社会共同体之所以能存在和发展的凝聚力、它指导社会共同体及其成员的前进方向、它还规范和约束社会共同体成员的思想和行动以形成社会共同体的合力。社会共同价值观是在一定历史时期的特定社会共同体中各社会阶层的社会成员普遍认同并持有的价值观。社会共同价值观具有普遍性、结构性、稳定性等特征 ,具有凝聚功能、导向功能和规约功能。社会共同价值观具有理论体系的形式、文化形式、社会心理的形式等存在形式     

物探方法在江西省茅排金矿的应用效果

茅排金矿床属中－低温硫化物金矿床，矿体的分布严格受断裂构造控制．通过应用不同的物探方法来寻找控矿断裂，从而达到间接地寻找矿体分布的目的，取得了较好的效果。