The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Geochronology, geochemistry and tectonic implications of Xiongshan diabasic dike swarm, northern Fujian

Sm/Nd isotopic age determination showed that Xiongshan dike swarm was at 585.7 Ma ± 30 Ma. The trace element geochemistry and Sr/Nd/Pb isotope gemhemistry studies indicate that the dike swarm was products of back-arc basin spreading ridge and the magma originated from the depleted mantle region which was metasomatized by LILE-rich liquids/melts derived from subduction slab. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Magnetostratigraphy and palaeoclimate of Red Clay sequences from Chinese Loess Plateau

Two Red Clay profiles near Xi’an and Xifeng were investigated in an attempt to determine magnetostratigraphic and palaeoclimatic records. The results show that aeolian dust accumulation and the related East Asia palaeomonsoon system had begun by 6.5 Ma, and it is deduced that the Tibetan Plateau had reached a significant elevation at that time. The late Tertiary palaeoclimatic history of the Red Clay as reflected by magnetic susceptibility is reconstructed during the period of 6.5–2.5 Ma. Stepwise increase in susceptibility of aeolian dust accumulation appears to have a close correlation to the uplift processes of the Tibetan Plateau. The remarkable increase of aeolian dust accumulation at 3.2 Ma appears to be due to the influence of global ice volume on the East Asia monsoon. Palaeomonsoon variation during the late Tertiary as recorded in the Red Clay sequences from the Chinese Loess Plateau can be regarded as the product of a number of interacting factors, such as uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, solar radiation, global ice volume, etc. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Foundation of Xi’an Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Evolution model and formation mechanism of bio-thermocatalytic transitional zone gas

As a new genetic type of natural gas exploration area, the bio-thermocatalytic transitional zone gas (BTTZG) has been highly stressed by geologists both at home and abroad. Systematic study on the generation mechanism of hydrocarbon at the transitional zone is presented. Based on simulating experiments and geochemistry analysis of the source rock with lower evolution, a hydrocarbon-forming model at the transitional zone has been established. The mechanism is proposed that under the condition of low temperature and pressure combining with extremely active structural stress and clay mineral catalysis, BTTZG is formed by de-group of soluble organic matter and polarized compositions through orthocarbon ion as well as by condensation polymerization of aromatic ring-rich insoluble organic matter. This mechanism controls the formation of BTTZG, and furthermore, BTTZG is the product of superimposition and interaction of all the factors mentioned above.     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

都江堰ML4.4地震前兆异常特征及预报概况

介绍了１９９３年１２月３０日都江堰ＭＬ４．４地震的前兆异常特征及震前预报概况。震前异常主要有空区、ｂ值、波速比、电磁波等     

1995年日本阪神地震近场强地面运动的特征

分析了１９９５年日本阪神地震（Ｍ７．２）近场强地面运动特征．结果表明，震中附近地区水平加速度峰值达６００～８００ｇａｌ，竖向加速度峰值达３００ｇａｌ，强地面运动持续时间为１０～１５ｓ，加速度时程的卓越周期为０．２～２ｓ．谱分析的结果还表明，在较宽的频带范围内该次地震的近场地震动的强度都比较大．     

线性度方法在前兆观测数据分析处理中的应用

利用空间线性度方法，对前兆场中不同台站，不同学科的前兆观测数据从总体形态上进行综合分析，得到关于描述前兆场的新的特征量ａ（空间线性度）本文给出了空间线性度的具体计算方法，并以华北地区为例，分析处理了区内１９７０～１９９４年部分地电阻率和地下水位观测资料，所得结果表明，新的前兆特征量ａ在中强地震之前一年左右时间内有异常显示。     

静海地震台地磁短周期变化及其在地震短临预报中的应用

近年来的一些研究表明，由于地震前孕震区地下介质的电性结构的变化，将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。通过对地震前后的地磁短周期转换函数的参数的计算、分析和研究，有可能提取出可靠的地震短临前兆异常（曾小苹等，１９９０）。为了进一步开展对该方法研究工作并使其在我区地震预测预报研究中得到应用，我们使用了静海台的地磁记录资料，分析计算了该台地磁短周期转换函数在地震前后的变化情况，确立了该方法应用天津地区地震预报的短临异常特征及指标，取得了较好的效果。