A hybrid genetic algorithm with local optimiser improves calibration of a vegetation change cellular automata model

Cellular automata (CA) models are commonly used to model vegetation dynamics, with the genetic algorithm (GA) being one method of calibration. This article investigates different GA settings, as well as the combination of a GA with a local optimiser to improve the calibration effort. The case study is a pattern-calibrated CA to model vegetation regrowth in central Victoria, Australia. We tested 16 GA models, varying population size, mutation rate, and level of allowable mutation. We also investigated the effect of applying a local optimiser, the Nelder?Mead Downhill Simplex (NMDS) at GA convergence. We found that using a decreasing mutation rate can reduce computational cost while avoiding premature GA convergence, while increasing population size does not make the GA more efficient. The hybrid GA-NMDS can also reduce computational cost compared to a GA alone, while also improving the calibration metric. We conclude that careful consideration of GA settings, including population size and mutation rate, and in particular the addition of a local optimiser, can positively impact the efficiency and success of the GA algorithm, which can in turn lead to improved simulations using a well-calibrated CA model.     

Milking the Plains: movement of large dairy operations into southwestern Kansas

Western Kansas has an historical identification with cattle, with a focus on cattle ranching and more specifically since the 1950s, beef-cattle feedlots. Since the mid-1990s large dairy operations have moved into southwestern Kansas. Today more than twenty large dairies house more than 70,000 milk cows. These operate as confined feeding operations similar to beef-cattle feedlots. Regional advantages for the dairy industry include affordable land with wide-open space, local residents' cattle- and dairy-friendly attitudes, and other factors. Regional promoters have actively recruited dairies, and a dairy-business support system has emerged. The prospects for continued expansion of dairies in southwestern Kansas are unclear; despite the locational advantages and the possibility that the industry may continue to relocate here, as did the cattle-feeding industry several decades ago, further moves into the area may depend on continued resources availability and additional infrastructure development.     

Effectiveness of Conservation Reserve Programs and Land ‘Slippage’ in Southwestern Kansas

Historically land reserve programs have been used to reduce soil erosion. Slippage, which occurs when the number of acres enrolled in a reserve program is not met by an equivalent reduction of acreage in production, has limited reserve success, however. This study addresses the effect of slippage on conservation reserves in southwestern Kansas from 1988–1994. Slippage has varied considerably on both spatial and temporal bases. At one extreme the programs were 100% successful in removing land from production, but at the other extreme, slippage rendered reserve programs nearly useless. Overall, slippage in the study area has greatly reduced conservation reserve effectiveness.     

Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

In the western United States, more than 79 000 km² has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land–atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) – RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM – to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (− 1.4 to − 3.1 °C) and maximum (− 2.9 to − 6.1 °C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest.     

Climatic and topographic limits to the abundance of bog pools

On patterned peatlands, open water pools develop within a matrix of terrestrial vegetation (‘ridges’). Regional patterns in the distribution of ridge–pool complexes suggest that the relative cover of these two surface types is controlled in part by climate wetness, but landscape topography must also be an important controlling factor. In this paper, a functional model that relates relative cover of ridges and pools to climate and surface gradient was developed and tested. The model was formulated in terms of a water budget, based on the differential effects of ridges and pools on losses by evapotranspiration and subsurface flow. It predicts a positive relationship between surface gradient and ridge proportion, with a linear effect related to water supply and ridge hydraulic conductivity, modified at high ridge proportion by differences in evapotranspiration between ridges and pools. The limit to patterned peatland distribution occurs where the surface is completely covered by ridges. The model may be sensitive or insensitive to climate differences between localities, depending on whether hydraulic characteristics of ridge peat co‐vary with water supply. To distinguish between these alternative hypotheses, surface gradient and ridge proportion were surveyed along 20 transects in each of three localities in Scotland that differ threefold in net precipitation to pools. The results of the field survey served to reject the climate‐sensitive hypothesis, but were consistent with the climate‐insensitive hypothesis. Analysis of the residuals suggested that variation within localities was related more to topographic control of water supply than to ridge hydraulic conductivity or developmental stage. Hence, within this maritime climate region, the distribution of ridge–pool complexes and the relative abundance of pools are controlled mainly by topographic variables. Field surveys across both maritime and continental regions are required to confirm a subtle climatic effect that allows pools to occur on higher gradients in drier climates than in wetter climates. Further development and testing of the functional model will provide a stronger basis for assessing potential feedback between climate change, peatland surface structure and methane emission from pools. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polyorogenic reworking of ore‐controlling shear zones at the South Range of the Sudbury impact structure: A telltale story from in situ U–Pb titanite geochronology

The post‐impact orogenic evolution of the world class Ni–Cu–PGE Sudbury mining camp in Ontario remains poorly understood. New temporal constraints from ore‐controlling, epidote–amphibolite facies shear zones in the heavily mineralised Creighton Mine (Sudbury, South Range) illuminate the complex orogenic history of the Sudbury structure. In situ U–Pb dating of shear‐hosted titanite grains by LA‐ICP‐MS reveals new evidence for shear zone reworking during the Yavapai (ca. 1.77–1.7 Ga), Mazatzalian–Labradorian (1.7–1.6 Ga) and Chieflakian–Pinwarian (1.5–1.4 Ga) accretionary events. The new age data show that the effects of the Penokean orogeny (1.9–1.8 Ga) on the structural architecture of the Sudbury structure have been overestimated. At a regional scale, the new titanite age populations corroborate that the Southern Province of the Canadian Shield documents the same tectonothermal episodes that are recorded along orogenic strike within the accretionary provinces of the Southwestern United States.     

DFTopoSim: Modeling Topographically-Controlled Deposition of Subseismic Scale Sandstone Packages Within a Mass Transport Dominated Deep-Water Channel Belt

Facies bodies in geostatistical models of deep-water depositional environments generally represent channel-levee-overbank-lobe morphologies. Such models adequately capture one set of the erosional and depositional processes resulting from turbidity currents traveling downslope to the ocean basin floor. However, depositional morphologies diverge from the straight forward channel-levee-overbank-lobe paradigm when the topography of the slope or the shape of the basin impacts the timing and magnitude of turbidity current deposition. Subaqueous mass-transport-deposits (MTDs) present the need for an exception to the channel-levee-overbank-lobe archetype. Irregular surface topography of subaqueous MTDs can play a primary role in controlling sand deposition from turbidity currents. MTD topography creates mini-basins in which sand accumulates in irregularly-shaped deposits. These accumulations are difficult to laterally correlate using well-log data due to their variable and unpredictable shape and size. Prediction is further complicated because sandstone bodies typical of this setting are difficult to resolve in seismic-reflection data. An event-based model is presented, called DFTopoSim, which simulates debris flows and turbidity currents. The accommodation space on top of and between debris flow lobes is filled in by sand from turbidity currents. When applied to a subsurface case in the Molasse Basin of Upper Austria, DFTopoSim predicts sand packages consistent with observations from core, well, and seismic data and the interpretation of the sedimentologic processes. DFTopoSim expands the set of available geostatistical deep-water depositional models beyond the standard channel-levee-overbank-lobe model.     

Ontogenetic patterns of concentration indicate lagoon nurseries are essential to common grunts stocks in a Puerto Rican bay

Estimates of abundance and size of three commercially exploited grunt species indicate ontogenetic changes in habitat utilization concentrate their juveniles within the lagoon of the Bay of La Parguera, Puerto Rico. Eleven biotopes, defined by four benthic structures (reef, mangrove, vegetation beds and unconsolidated sediments) and three geographic zones (inner lagoon, outer lagoon and bank shelf) were sampled randomly by visual surveys. French, bluestriped and white grunt (Haemulon flavolineatum, Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon plumeri) were common in the bay and appeared to exhibit similar life history patterns of cross-shelf migration and habitat selection. Recently settled grunts were dispersed over vegetated and unconsolidated soft-bottom sediments of the bay. The juvenile stage occurred in highest densities in shallow lagoon biotopes among the submerged prop-roots of mangrove stands and on inshore reefs. Length data indicates that grunts migrate offshore to adult habitat via increasingly deep reefs. Indices of biotope nursery function based on standing stock estimates of juveniles identified three biotopes, all within the inner lagoon as essential habitat for juveniles of 5–10 cm length interval. This concentration of juveniles within biotopes of the lagoon could represent a bottleneck to recruitment for grunt stocks. Evidence that quantity and quality of lagoon nurseries may limit recruitment indicates that these areas represent a key component of a marine protected area designed to restore fisheries within the bay.