Structure of a Large low-Latitude Coronal Hole

Coronal holes on the Sun are the source of high-speed solar wind streams that produce magnetic disturbances at the Earth. A series of multi-wavelength, multi-instrument observations obtained during the 1996 Whole Sun Month campaign examined a large coronal hole in greater detail than ever before. It appeared on the Sun in August, and extended from the north pole to a large active region in the southern hemisphere. Its physical and magnetic structure and subsequent evolution are described.     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

Climate stability and the development of agricultural societies

Although Modern Man had developed long before the migration from Africa began ～ 55,000 years ago no agricultural societies developed until about ～ 10,000 years ago. In the next 5,000 years agricultures developed independently in at least six regions of the world. It is virtually certain that it was not a chance occurrence that so many new agricultures appeared in the same 5,000 years. What inhibited agriculture world wide for 44,000 years and what changed ～ 10,000 years ago? Here we suggest that a major factor influencing the development of agricultural societies was climate stability. From the experience of four cultures we estimate that the development of agriculture needed ～ 2,000 years of climate free from significant climate variations on time scales of a few centuries. Using the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique specifically designed to exhibit the time history of the amplitude of variations in non-stationary time series such as climate proxy records, we find that between 50,000 years ago and the termination of the Younger Dryas ～ 11,600 years ago there was probably no time span as long as 2,000 years that was free of relatively large century scale variations. Furthermore variations on these time scales appear to have been relatively small since the Younger Dryas (YD) ended, supporting our proposition concerning the importance of climate stability in the history of human culture.     

Waterspouts of the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea and their meteorological environment

The synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with waterspout occurrence in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea are examined in an attempt to quantitatively assess the meteorological environment favourable to the development of waterspouts. For this study, synoptic circulation patterns have been examined for 28 waterspout events in the central-eastern Mediterranean. The waterspouts were reported within the summer and fall of 2002, from July to November, a period of unusually high whirlwind activity. The Adriatic was most active during July, August and September and the Ionian and Aegean during September, October and November. Of the examined waterspout cases, 13 out of the total of 28 were found to be fair-weather waterspouts, while 15 represent tornadic events. For waterspout days, the frequency and distribution of four basic synoptic types, namely, south-west flow (SW), long-wave trough (LW), closed low (CLOSED) and short-wave trough (SWT), were investigated. The particular synoptic features that contributed to the development of waterspout activity were examined, based on five selected waterspout case studies. The mesoscale environment was explored using thermodynamic indices, moisture and wind parameters as derived by operational soundings from the nearest sites (preferably upwind) and closest in time to the waterspout occurrences. The results present an analysis of waterspout types in conjunction to thermodynamic and wind parameters for the purpose of determining synoptic patterns and mesoscale conditions most relevant to waterspout occurrences in these sea areas of the Mediterranean.     

Oceanography of Glacier Bay,Alaska: Implications for biological patterns in a glacial fjord estuary

Alaska, U.S.A, is one of the few remaining locations in the world that has fjords that contain temperate idewater glaciers. Studying such estuarine systems provides vital information on how deglaciation affects oceanographic onditions of fjords and surrounding coastal waters. The oceanographic system of Glacier Bay, Alaska, is of particular interest ue to the rapid deglaciation of the Bay and the resulting changes in the estuarine environment, the relatively high oncentrations of marine mammals, seabirds, fishes, and invertebrates, and the Bay’s status as a national park, where ommercial fisheries are being phased out. We describe the first comprehensive broad-scale analysis of physical and iological oceanographic conditions within Glacier Bay based on CTD measurements at 24 stations from 1993 to 2002. easonal patterns of near-surface salinity, temperature, stratification, turbidity, and euphotic depth suggest that freshwater nput was highest in summer, emphasizing the critical role of glacier and snowmelt to this system. Strong and persistent tratification of surface waters driven by freshwater input occurred from spring through fall. After accounting for seasonal nd spatial variation, several of the external physical factors (i.e., air temperature, precipitation, day length) explained a large mount of variation in the physical properties of the surface waters. Spatial patterns of phytoplankton biomass varied hroughout the year and were related to stratification levels, euphotic depth, and day length. We observed hydrographic atterns indicative of strong competing forces influencing water column stability within Glacier Bay: high levels of freshwater ischarge promoted stratification in the upper fjord, while strong tidal currents over the Bay’s shallow entrance sill enhanced ertical mixing. Where these two processes met in the central deep basins there were optimal conditions of intermediate tratification, higher light levels, and potential nutrient renewal. These conditions were associated with high and sustained hlorophylla levels observed from spring through fall in these zones of the Bay and provide a framework for understanding he abundance patterns of higher trophic levels within this estuarine system.     

Properties and depositional environment of the Neogene Elhovo Lignite, Bulgaria

Several Mio-Pliocene aged lignite seams occur as part of a non-marine transgressive sequence in the Elhovo graben in south-eastern Bulgaria. The present study is focused on 45 samples collected from three boreholes in the eastern part of the basin. Petrographic data along with ash and sulphur contents were used in order to determine the lateral and vertical variations of the coal facies and depositional environment of the Elhovo lignite.The lignite seams accumulated in a rheotrophic, low-lying mire with high pH value and are characterized by high ash yields and sulphur contents. Despite of the neutral to weakly alkaline environment the bacterial activity was limited and the tissue preservation and gelification were mainly controlled by the redox conditions.Vegetation rich in decay resistant conifers dominated in the Elhovo basin together with mesophytic angiosperm species. The absence of algal remains and sapropelic coal indicated that open water areas were not present during peat accumulation. The latter processed in an environment, characterized by low subsidence rate, in which prior to the burial the woods were subjected to severe mechanical destruction. According to our interpretation, the enhanced impregnation of the tissues bacteria and fungi played only a secondary role in the process of humification. The lignite from borehole 122 and partly from BH 145 deposited in an environment characterized by relatively low (ground)water table, whereas to the south an area dominated by a flooded forest swamp (BH 104) formed. This is suggested by the better tissue preservation and gelification of the organic matter in BH 104. The vertical variation of the maceral composition in the studied lignite is interpreted as a consequence of vegetational changes, rather than to changes in the depositional environment. The low contents of inertinite macerals indicate that despite of the low water level the environment was relatively wet and the thermal and oxidative destruction of the tissues was limited.Peat accumulation was terminated by a major flooding event and a short term establishment of a lake. In contrast to the West Maritsa basin, no seam formed in the Elhovo basin during the filling stage of the lake.     

Validation of climate model output using Bayesian statistical methods

The growing interest in and emphasis on high spatial resolution estimates of future climate has demonstrated the need to apply regional climate models (RCMs) to that problem. As a consequence, the need for validation of these models, an assessment of how well an RCM reproduces a known climate, has also grown. Validation is often performed by comparing RCM output to gridded climate datasets and/or station data. The primary disadvantage of using gridded climate datasets is that the spatial resolution is almost always different and generally coarser than climate model output. We have used a Bayesian statistical model derived from observational data to validate RCM output. We used surface air temperature (SAT) data from 109 observational stations in California, all with records of approximately 50 years in length, and created a statistical model based on this data. The statistical model takes into account the elevation of the station, distance from coastline, and the NOAA climate region in which the station resides. Analysis indicates that the statistical model provides reliable estimates of the mean monthly SAT at any given station. In our method, the uncertainty in the estimates produced by the statistical model are directly determined by obtaining probability density functions for predicted SATs. This statistical model is then used to estimate average SATs corresponding to each of the climate model grid cells. These estimates are compared to the output of the RCM to assess how well the RCM matches the observed climate as defined by the statistical model. Overall, the match between the RCM output and the statistical model is good, with some deficiencies likely due in part to the representation of topography in the RCM.     

Detection of iodine monoxide radicals in the marine boundary layer using laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy

A Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) instrument has been developed to detect iodine monoxide (IO) radicals in the atmosphere. An all solid-state Nd:YAG pumped Ti:Sapphire laser operating at approximately 445 nm was used to excite the (2,0) band of the IO A²Π_3/2 ← X²Π_3/2 electronic transition, with off-resonance fluorescence in the (2,5) band detected at 521 nm. The sensitivity of the instrument was determined by calibration. IO (between 10 and 150 pptV) was generated following the 184.9 nm photolysis of N₂O/CF₃I/N₂ mixtures with O₃ actinometry used to determine the photolysis flux. The detection limit was determined to be 0.3 pptV for a 300 s integration period, with an uncertainty of 23% (1σ). The instrument was deployed in August/September 2006 during the RHaMBLe (Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer) campaign in Roscoff, France. Located on a small jetty, a few metres from the water’s edge at high tide, the instrument measured significant levels of IO on 11 days, with a maximum of 27.6 ± 3.2 pptV observed on one day (averaged over 10 s) representing the highest IO mixing ratio recorded in the marine boundary layer to date. IO displayed a clear diurnal profile with a maximum at low tide during the daytime. These results represent the first point measurements of IO in the atmosphere by LIF.     

Alternative Validation of a LC-MS/MS-Multi-Method for Pesticides in Drinking Water

The development of instrumental analytics such as the LC-MS/MS has made it possible to quickly determine many component concentrations in a single chromatogram. However, the validation of such multi-methods needs new strategies for robustness and optimization. Statistical execution of analytical tests is one tool that can be utilized to meet this requirement. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was utilized for the validation of an LC-MS/MS multi-method for 84 analytes. The experimental design includes six design variables and two non-design variables (response variables). Concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time, gradient, flow (of eluent), and spraying/curtain gas (continuous design variables) were varied on five different levels; the whole design encompassed 91 runs. To investigate the robustness of a LC-MS/MS method both peak sensitivity and chromatographic separation had to be verified. Therefore, two non-design variables were necessary. The distribution of the peaks over analysis time was applied to describe the quality of the chromatographic separation. The sensitivity was described with the signal to noise ratio (S/N). The evaluation of the measured data was accomplished with the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Three main effects (concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time) and no significant interaction effect were found for the response variable “S/N”. The variables of concentration, ionization temperature, and dwell time had no significant effects for the response variable “S/N”. The ANOVA of the response variable chromatographic separation abandoned no significant effects as well. Therefore, robustness of the method can be guaranteed for all non significant design variables.