Models of the Earth’s plasmapause position

正The plasmasphere is a region of relatively dense(~10–10000 cm~(–3))plasma,surrounding the Earth and extending to distances of about five Earth radii(R_E).It is filled with large amount of cold(~1 e V)plasma originated from the Earth’s ionosphere and co-rotating with the Earth due to the large scale co-rotation electric field.The outermost     

鲁豫交界地区深井水位持续大幅度下降原因分析

鲁豫交界地区豫01、11井和鲁27井等3口地震观测深井的水位于2006年后出现了准同步的异常下降变化,下降幅度3 ～12m不等.经调查落实,发现该地区近年来地热开采活动日益增强,开采量逐年增大,并且开采层与异常井水位观测层同属于奥陶系热储层.为此,本文依据聊城-兰考断裂带附近区域的水文地质构造特征,建立了三维地下水流动模型,基于周边地热开采量数据和相关含水层参数,运用有限差分方法计算了地热开采所引起的区域水位降落漏斗,并分析了水位下降异常的时间演化和空间分布特征.结果显示,聊城-兰考断裂带附近区域自1995年开始地热开采活动以来,其逐年增加的地热开采量与地震观测井水位的下降幅度之间存在较好的对应关系,分析认为鲁豫交界地区3口深井水位的准同步异常下降与周边地热开采活动有关.     

Review of the Kalman-type hydrological data assimilation

ABSTRACT

There is great potential in Data Assimilation (DA) for the purposes of uncertainty identification, reduction and real-time correction of hydrological models. This paper reviews the latest developments in Kalman filters (KFs), particularly the Extended KF (EKF) and the Ensemble KF (EnKF) in hydrological DA. The hydrological DA targets, methodologies and their applicability are examined. The recent applications of the EKF and EnKF in hydrological DA are summarized and assessed critically. Furthermore, this review highlights the existing challenges in the implementation of the EKF and EnKF, especially error determination and joint parameter estimation. A detailed review of these issues would benefit not only the Kalman-type DA but also provide an important reference to other hydrological DA types.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F. Pappenberger     

Assessment of surface water resources and evapotranspiration in the Haihe River basin of China using SWAT model

Quantitative assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) and evapotranspiration (ET) is essential and significant for reasonably planning and managing water resources in the Haihe River basin which is facing severe water shortage. In this study, a distributed hydrological model of the Haihe River basin was constructed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, well considering the reservoirs and agricultural management practices for reasonable simulation. The crop parameters were independently calibrated with the observed crop data at six experimental stations. Then, sensitivity ranks of hydrological parameters were analysed, which suggested the important parameters used for calibration. The model was successfully calibrated using the monthly observed data of discharge in around 1970–1991 and actual ET (ET_a) in 2002–2004 for the mountainous area and Haihe plain, respectively. Meanwhile, good agreements between the simulated and statistical crop yields in 1985–2005 further verified the model's appropriateness. Finally, the calibrated model was used to assess SWRs and ET_a in time and space during 1961–2005. Results showed that the average annual natural SWRs and the ET_a were about 17.5 billion cubic metre and 542 mm, respectively, both with a slight downward trend. The spatial distributions of both SWRs and ET_a were significantly impacted by variations of precipitation and land use. Moreover, the reservoir in operation was the main factor for the noticeable decline of actual SWRs. In the Haihe plain, the ET_a with irrigation was increased by 46% compared with that under rainfed conditions. In addition, this study identified the regions with potential to improve the irrigation effects on water use. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future changes in daily snowfall events over China based on CMIP6 models

China has been frequently affected by severe snowstorms in recent years that have particularly large economic and human impacts. It is thus of great importance to increase our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of and future changes in snowfall occurrences over China. In this study, the effects of anthropogenic influences on snowfall and the associated future changes are explored using new simulations from CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models. Observational evidence reveals a decrease in the annual total snowfall days and an increase in intense snowfall days over the snowfall-dominated regions in China during recent decades. Fingerprints of anthropogenic influences on these changes are detectable, especially the impacts of increased greenhouse gas emissions. During the winter seasons, low temperatures still cover the regions of northern China, and the associated precipitation days show an increase due to anthropogenic warming, which substantially benefits the occurrence of snowfall over these regions, particularly for intense snowfall events. This is also true in the future, despite rapid warming being projected. By the end of this century, approximately 23% of grids centered over northern China are projected to still experience an increase in daily intense snowfall events in winters. Additionally, the length of the snowfall season is projected to narrow by nearly 41 days compared to the current climate. Thus, in the future, regions of China, especially northern China, are likely to experience more intense snowfall days over a more concentrated period of time during the winter seasons.摘要近年来, 中国部分地区频繁遭遇极端降雪事件袭击, 造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡. 因此, 亟需深入理解中国地区极端降雪变化的物理机制及其未来演变趋势, 为国家防灾减灾及气候变化应对措施制定提供科学依据. 本文基于CMIP6模式结果, 深入开展人类活动对中国地区降雪变化的影响及其未来演变趋势预估研究. 观测显示, 过去几十年在中国降雪频发区, 其年降雪日数呈现减少趋势但强降雪日数增加; 在这些变化中能够检测到人类活动的痕迹, 尤其是温室气体排放的影响. 对于冬季, 全球变暖背景下中国北方地区降水日数明显增加, 但北方地区仍为低温控制, 这有利于降雪尤其是强降雪事件的发生; 到了本世纪末, 中国仍有约23%的区域 (主要集中在北方地区) 其冬季强降雪日数呈现增加趋势. 此外, 中国地区降雪季长度相比当前气候减少了约41天. 因此, 在未来持续变暖背景下, 中国北方部分地区冬季将经历更多更为集中的强降雪事件.     

青藏高原东北部共和盆地风成沉积地球化学特征及其揭示的气候变化

通过对共和盆地东部风成沉积的地球化学分析,并结合14C和OSL年代,重建了区域末次盛冰期以来气候变化过程。21 ka BP之前气候寒冷偏湿,21～15.82 ka BP为末次盛冰期(LastGlacial Maximum,LGM),气候极为寒冷干燥;15.82～9.5 ka BP气候转暖且偏干,其中14.5～13.6ka BP和11.9～9.5 ka BP气候明显冷干,分别为老仙女木时期(Oldest Dryas,OD)和新仙女木时期(Younger Dryas,YD),而15.82～14.5 ka BP和13.6～11.9 ka BP(BФlling-AllerФd暖期,B/A)相对温暖;9.5～7.2 ka BP暖湿程度明显提高,7.2～5.1 ka BP气候波动频繁,相对冷干和相对暖湿多次更替。5.1～2.7 ka BP暖湿程度基本稳定,之后气候趋于寒冷但湿度明显较大。这些气候变化过程与青藏高原大量的古气候信息记录具有良好的一致性,表明共和盆地气候变化与青藏高原气候变化的高度一致性。     

Dissolution of sandstone powders in deionised water over the range 50–350 °C

Sandstone dissolution is a common water–rock reaction in the Earth’s crust, but a thorough understanding of this phenomenon is constrained by poorly determined kinetic data. To this end, kinetic data were determined for the dissolution of arkosic sandstone powders in deionised water (pH was about 7.0–7.3 and electrical conductivity was between 0.95 and 1.00 μS/cm). Release rates of dissolved elements were determined over the range 50–350 °C at 20, 15, and 10 MPa using a column flow-through pressure vessel reactor. The conductivity of the outlet solution, measured at room temperature, is dependent on the charge of major cations such as Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ at these conditions. The conductivity of the outlet solution was used to determine the steady state of the dissolution of sandstone powders. The pH values of the outlet solutions at the steady state, measured ex situ at room temperature, were about 7.7, 8.3, 8.4, 8.4 and 7.6 at 75, 100, 150, 200 and 250 °C, respectively, at 10 MPa. Silicon, Na, K, Ca, Al and Mg are the major ions found in the solution at low temperatures, but Si is the only major ion retained at higher temperatures (>150 °C). Compared with static experiments, the flowing dissolution experiments occurred at conditions far from equilibrium. The relationship between temperature and dissolution rates of arkosic sandstone powders was described as log R = 0.005469t − 10.50 where R is the dissolution rates of sandstone powders in kg/(m² s), t is temperature in °C which ranged from 100 to 350 °C at 20 and 15 MPa, and the dissolution rates of sandstone powders were measured only for the major dissolved elements without oxygen in the outlet solutions.     

Correlations between 11B NMR parameters and structural characters in borate and borosilicate minerals investigated by high-resolution MAS NMR and ab initio calculations

Borates consisting of diverse fundamental building blocks (FBB) formed from complex polymerization of planar triangular [Bϕ₃] groups and tetrahedral [Bϕ₄] groups, where ϕ = O and OH, provide an excellent opportunity for investigation of correlations between the NMR parameters and local structures. However, previous studies suggested that the ¹¹B NMR parameters in borates are insensitive to local structural environments other than the B coordination number, in contrast to those documented for ²⁹Si, ²³Na and ²⁷Al in silicates, and no correlation between ¹¹B chemical shifts and the sum of bond valences has been established for borate minerals with hydroxyl groups or molecular water in the structures. In this study, high-resolution NMR spectra have been acquired at the ultra high field of 21 T as well as at 14 T for selected borate and borosilicate minerals, and have been used to extract high-precision NMR parameters by using combined ab initio theoretical calculations and spectral simulations. These new NMR parameters reveal subtle correlations with various structural characters, especially the effects of the ¹¹B chemical shifts from the bridging oxygen atom(s), site symmetry, symmetry of FBB, the sum of bond valences, as well as the next-nearest-neighbor cations and hydrogen bonding. Also, these results provide new insights into the shielding mechanism for ¹¹B in borate and borosilicate minerals. In particular, this study demonstrates that the small variation in ¹¹B chemical shifts can still be used to probe the local structural environments and that the established correlations can be used to investigate the structural details in borates and amorphous materials.