Using computational intelligence techniques to model subglacial water systems

Measurements of water pressure beneath Trapridge Glacier, Yukon Territory, Canada show that the basal water system is highly heterogeneous. Three types of behaviour were recorded: pressure records which are strongly correlated, records which are strongly anticorrelated, and records which alternate between strong correlation and strong anticorrelation. We take the pressure in bore-holes that are connected to the evacuation route for basal water as the forcing, and the other pressures as the response to this forcing. Previous work (Murray and Clarke 1995) has shown that these relationships can be modelled using low-order nonlinear differential equations optimized by inversion. However, despite optimizing the model parameters we cannot be sure that the final model forms are themselves optimal. Computational intelligence techniques provide alternative methods for fitting models and are robust to missing or noisy data, applicable to non-smooth models, and attempt to derive optimal model forms as well as optimal model parameters. Four computational intelligence techniques have been used and the results compared with the more conventional mathematical model. These methods were genetic programming, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and self-organizing maps. We compare each technique and offer an evaluation of their suitability for modelling the pressure data. The evaluation criteria are threefold: (1) goodness of fit and an ability to predict subsequent data under different surface weather conditions; (2) interpretability, and the extent and significance of any new insights offered into the physics of the glacier; (3) computation time. The results suggest that the suitability of the computational intelligence techniques to model these data increases with the complexity of the system to be modelled.     

Preparation and Measurement of Cassiterite for Sn Isotope Analysis

Increased interest in the fractionation of Sn isotopes has led to the development of several techniques for preparing cassiterite (SnO₂, the primary ore of Sn) for isotopic analysis. Two distinct methods have been applied in recent isotopic studies of cassiterite: (a) reduction to tin metal with potassium cyanide (KCN) at high temperature (800 °C), with subsequent dissolution in HCl, and (b) reduction to a Sn solution with hydriodic acid (HI) at low temperature (100 °C). This study compares the effectiveness and accuracy of these two methods and contributes additional methodological details. The KCN method consistently yielded more Sn (> 70% in comparison with < 5%), does not appear to fractionate Sn isotopes at high temperatures over a 2‐hour period and produced consistent Sn isotope values at flux mass ratios of ≥ 4:1 (flux to mineral) with a minimum reduction time of 40 min. By means of a distillation experiment, it was demonstrated that HI could volatilise Sn, explaining the consistently low yields by this method. Furthermore, the distillation generated Sn vapour, which is up to 0.38‰ per mass unit different from the starting material, the largest induced Sn fractionation reported to date. Accordingly, the HI method is not recommended for cassiterite preparation for Sn isotopic analysis.     

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Matching solute breakthrough with deterministic and stochastic aquifer models

Two different deterministic and two alternative stochastic (i.e., geostatistical) approaches to modeling the distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) in a nonuniform (sigma2ln(K)) = 0.29) glacial sand aquifer were used to explore the influence of conceptual model selection on simulations of three-dimensional tracer movement. The deterministic K models employed included a homogeneous effective K and a perfectly stratified 14 layer model. Stochastic K models were constructed using sequential Gaussian simulation and sequential i ndicator simulation conditioned to available K values estimated from measured grain size distributions. Standard simulation software packages MODFLOW, MT3DMS, and MODPATH were used to model three-dimensional ground water flow and transport in a field tracer test, where a pulse of bromide was injected through an array of three fully screened wells and extracted through a single fully screened well approximately 8 m away. Agreement between observed and simulated transport behavior was assessed through direct comparison of breakthrough curves (BTCs) and selected breakthrough metrics at the extraction well and at 26 individual multilevel sample ports distributed irregularly between the injection and extraction wells. Results indicate that conceptual models incorporating formation variability are better able to capture observed breakthrough behavior. Root mean square (RMS) error of the deterministic models bracketed the ensemble mean RMS error of stochastic models for simulated concentration vs. time series, but not for individual BTC characteristic metrics. The spatial variability models evaluated here may be better suited to simulating breakthrough behavior measured in wells screened over large intervals than at arbitrarily distributed observation points within a nonuniform aquifer domain.     

Soil sorption of caesium modelled by the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm equations

The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherm equations were used to model Cs sorption in 6 Welsh soils. The pH (in water), of the soils ranged from 3.5 to 6.5, and the estimated organic matter (determined by loss-on-ignition) ranged from 4.8% to 46%. According to the Langmuir adsorption isotherm, highest sorption maxima,b, were displayed by the loams at 102–204 mg kg⁻¹, compared with organic soils at 37–86 mg kg⁻¹. Subsoil horizons (15–30 cm depth) did not always display higher sorption maxima than their topsoil (0–15 cm depth) counterparts. Where an improved fit to the Freundlich model was found over the Langmuir model, it was assumed that either concurrent desorption of other species, or bond-energy heterogeneity in the substrate, were significant for these soils.     

Late Quaternary deformation on the island on Pantelleria: New constraints for the recent tectonic evolution of the Sicily Channel Rift (southern Italy)

Structural observations carried out on the volcanic Island of Pantelleria show that the tectonic setting is dominated by NNE trending normal faults and by NW-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults with normal component of motion controlled by a ≈N 100°E oriented extension. This mode of deformation also controls the development of the eruptive fissures, dykes and eruptive centres along NNE–SSW belts that may thus represent the surface response to crustal cracking with associated magma intrusions. Magmatic intrusions are also responsible for the impressive vertical deformations that affect during the Late Quaternary the south-eastern segment of the island and producing a large dome within the Pantelleria caldera complex. The results of the structural analysis carried out on the Island of Pantelleria also improves the general knowledge on the Late Quaternary tectonics of the entire Sicily Channel. ESE–WNW directed extension, responsible for both the tectonic and volcano-tectonic features of the Pantelleria Island, also characterizes, at a greater scale, the entire channel as shown by available geodetic and seismological data. This mode of extension reactivates the older NW–SE trending fault segments bounding the tectonic troughs of the Channel as right-lateral strike-slip faults and produces new NNE trending pure extensional features (normal faulting and cracking) that preferentially develop at the tip of the major strike-slip fault zones. We thus relate the Late Quaternary volcanism of the Pelagian Block magmatism to dilatational strain on the NNE-striking extensional features that develop on the pre-existing stretched area and propagate throughout the entire continental crust linking the already up-welled mantle with the surface.     

Molecular identification of bloom-forming species Phaeocystis globosa(Prymnesiophyta)and its dispersal based on rDNA ITS sequence analysis

Abstract-The colony-forming Phaeocystis species are causative agents of dense bloom occurrences incoastal waters worldwide. It is difficult to separate them because of the different morphologies associatedwith their colonial stages. In this study we applied molecular approaches to analyze the genetic variationof Phaeocystis globosa and Phaeocystis pouchetii from several geogrtaphic regions, and to assist in tracingthe dispersal of bloom-forming Phaeocystis species in coastal waters of China. The Sequences of the inter-nal transcribed sacers (ITS1 and ITS2) of rDNA and the 5.8S ribosomal RNA gene of Phaeocystisstrains were determined. Sequence comparison shows that P.globosa was the most divergent toP. pouchetii, exhibiting sequence divergence higher than 0.08. However, lower genetic divergences ex-isted between strains of P.globosa. The sequence comparison of the Phaeocystis rDNA ITS clearlyshows that the species isolated from the southeast coast of China is identified as P. globosa rather thanP. cf. po     

Stratigraphy of the Triassic?Jurassic Boundary Successions of the Southern Margin of the Junggar Basin, Northwestern China

The Triassic?Jurassic (Tr?J) boundary marks a major extinction event, which (~200 Ma) resulted in global extinctions of fauna and flora both in the marine and terrestrial realms. There prevail great challenges in determining the exact location of the terrestrial Tr?J boundary, because of endemism of taxa and the scarcity of fossils in terrestrial settings leading to difficulties in linking marine and terrestrial sedimentary successions. Investigation based on palynology and bivalves has been carried out over a 1113 m thick section, which is subdivided into 132 beds, along the Haojiagou valley on the southern margin of the Junggar Basin of the northern Xinjiang, northwestern China. The terrestrial Lower Jurassic is conformably resting on the Upper Triassic strata. The Upper Triassic covers the Huangshanjie Formation overlaid by the Haojiagou Formation, while the Lower Jurassic comprises the Badaowan Formation followed by the Sangonghe Formation. Fifty six pollen and spore taxa and one algal taxon were identified from the sediments. Based on the key-species and abundance of spores and pollen, three zones were erected: the Late Triassic (Rhaetian) Aratrisporites?Alisporites Assemblage, the Early Jurassic (Hettangian) Perinopollenites?Pinuspollenites Assemblage, and the Sinemurian Perinopollenites?Cycadopites Assemblage. The Tr?J boundary is placed between bed 44 and 45 coincident with the boundary between the Haojiagou and Badaowan formations. Beds with Ferganoconcha (?), Unio?Ferganoconcha and Waagenoperna?Yananoconcha bivalve assemblages are recognized. The Ferganoconcha (?) bed is limited to the upper Haojiagou Formation, Unio?Ferganoconcha and Waagenoperna?Yananoconcha assemblages are present in the middle and upper members of the Badaowan Formation. The sedimentary succession is interpreted as terrestrial with two mainly lake deposit intervals within Haojiagou and Badaowan formations, yielding fresh water algae and bivalves. However, the presence of brackish water algae Tasmanites and the marine?littoral facies bivalve Waagenoperna from the Badaowan Formation indicate that the Junggar Basin was influenced by sea water caused by transgressions from the northern Tethys, during the Sinemurian.