On the vertical structure of temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic

The expansion of the temperature anomaly field in the North Atlantic is considered using natural orthogonal functions of depth. It is shown that the first few components of this expansion describe the field both at the surface and in the upper 1000 m layer accurately enough. The relation between the water temperature anomaly at some levels and the above components is estimated for various regions of the ocean.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Spectra of the Black-Sea tsunamis

We perform the analysis of the time spectra of four tsunamis generated in the Black Sea by the earthquakes of 26.07.1927, 11.09.1927, 26.12.1939, and 12.07.1966. For the analysis of the spectra, we used digitized marigrams obtained for 12 points of the Black-Sea coast. The obtained spectra are, as a rule, multimode and have 1–4 spectral maxima. One maximum corresponds to the periods typical of tsunami waves and the other maxima correspond to the oscillations of the sea level with lower frequencies. It seems likely that the events of tsunami are accompanied by low-frequency oscillations of the level caused by the atmospheric forcing, seiches, or other factors. In numerous cases, the oscillations from the predominant energy range lie outside the characteristic range of periods of the tsunami waves. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 21–30, September–October, 2007.     

Errors in recent ocean tide models: possible origin and cause

Recently, the TOPEX/POSEIDON Science Working Team has recommended the FES95.2.1 and CSR3.0 ocean tide models for reprocessing the TOPEX/POSEIDON Geophysical Data Records. Without doubt, the performance of these models, especially in the deep oceans, is excellent. However, from a comparison of these hydrodynamically consistent models with the purely empirical DW3.2 and DEOS96.1 models, it appears that FES95.2.1 and CSR3.0 are affected by basin boundary related errors which are caused by the basin-wise solution procedure of the FES ocean tide model series. In their turn, the empirical DW3.2 and DEOS96.1 models seem to suffer from significant errors in the Antarctic seas due to the seasonal growth and decay of Antarctic sea ice. Also, bathymetry-induced differences were found between the hydrodynamically consistent models and the empirical models. Concerning these differences, TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1 crossover statistics unfortunately do not provide conclusive results on which models are in error.     

Adaptive balance of global development processes

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.     

On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.     

Experimental research on the hydrophysical characteristics and dynamics of waters in the north-west Black Sea in the region of the main Black Sea current

The results of measurements of hydrophysical parameters in the upper layer of the sea at an observation site located south-west of the Crimea are reported. The current pattern, the distribution of the upwelling and downwelling zones at the observation site, and the location of the mesoscale fronts are discussed.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

The choice of a dynamico-stochastic model for ocean monitoring — A compromise between the accuracy and cost of computations

In this paper we compare, two dynamico-stochastic models (DSMs) with different hydrodynamic parts, designed to study a large-scale North Atlantic region. As a performance criterion, RMS errors (over the horizon) in density and velocity field reconstruction are used. It has been shown that in some cases it seems rational to use DSMs with simplified hydrodynamic parts. This helps to expedite the computations and to reduce the related costs without much detriment to the quality of hydrophysical field simulation.UDK 551.465.001.573(261.1).Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.