基于地面气象要素的延伸期相似预报方法初步研究

依据基于地面气象要素的相似预报方法,利用环渤海地区1960~2010年57个地面测站的降水和风速气象资料,探讨了相似预报法进行延伸期预报的可行性。2000~2010年预报效果表明:该方法对夏季降水日数有一定的预报能力,除去8月第27~30 d的预报外,其预报准确率均高于气候概率。6~7月中雨预报准确率在8%~10%之间,整体超过了气候概率值;夏季大雨和暴雨的延伸期预报准确率大多较气候概率值高,预报结果可信。对于0~2级风速预报而言,各季节存在明显差异,预报准确率最高值出现在夏季,高达85%,最低值出现在春季,为50%左右;对于3~4级风速预报,一年中有8个月的预报准确率维持在10%左右;在2~4月日均风速≥5级的预报准确率为7%~10%,而日最大风速≥5级的预报准确率明显高于日均风速的预报准确率,最低预报准确率为18.5%,最高可达39.1%。风速的预报结果与同类研究对比发现,基于地面气象要素的相似预报方法在延伸期风速预报中具有一定的应用价值。     

基于ArcIMS的空间影像数据库的设计和实现

利用ArcIMS作为WebGIS的空间服务器,建立了空间影像数据库,并结合GIS和网络的优势,来为国家973项目《中国陆地生态系统碳循环及其驱动机制研究》这个课题提供服务。用户可以方便的浏览所需要的数据,并可以实现GIS的查询,漫游,放大,缩小等功能,提高了工作效率,得到了比较好的效果。     

西天山白垩纪隆升-剥露的裂变径迹证据

白垩纪的隆升-剥露事件在新疆不同构造单元广泛发育。本文主要是通过磷灰石裂变径迹测年技术,结合温度-时间热模拟反演的研究,探讨西天山北段和中段白垩纪的隆升-剥露过程。17个样品分别采自西天山北段的博罗科鲁山、依连哈比尔尕山以及西天山中段的独库公路附近的花岗岩体。裂变径迹测试结果显示,样品的径迹年龄介于45.4±3.2~81.6±4.9 Ma,平均径迹长度介于12.62±0.17~13.53±0.14μm之间。进一步根据温度-时间的模拟结果推断,西天山北段和中段在晚白垩世都经历了快速隆升-剥露过程。在时间上,西天山北段样品记录的快速隆升的时间主要集中在50~70 Ma之间,西天山中段样品记录的快速隆升时间集中在70~90Ma之间。结合相应的地质证据,认为从晚白垩世开始,西天山地区开始出现差异性的隆升剥露过程,伊犁盆地从早中白垩世隆升剥蚀状态转变为晚白垩世接受沉积,其两侧山脉继续处于快速隆升剥蚀的状态。导致这种隆升-剥露事件的动力学机制是受多因素综合控制的,印亚碰撞的远程效应可能是该期事件的主要动力来源,但天山不同地段的热-流变性质的差异性及不同块体之间的相互作用是导致差异性隆升-剥蚀的主要因素。     

Liquefaction behavior of dredged silty-fine sands under cyclic loading for land reclamation: laboratory experiment and numerical simulation

Medium-coarse sands (CS) were dredged and exhausted in land reclamation. However, the remaining silty-fine sands (FS) were wasted. The liquefaction behavior of dredged silty-FS and the possibility of utilizing the remaining silty-FS as dredger fill source for land reclamation should be investigated. Cyclic consolidation-undrained triaxial tests were performed to investigate the liquefaction resistance of dredged silty-FS under different influencing factors. The cyclic stress ratio (CSR) of dredged silty-FS increased with the increase in initial relative density and consolidation stress ratio and decreased with the increase in silt content and consolidation stress. The CSR first decreased with the increase in clay content up to a threshold value and increased with the increase in clay content. A regression model was created to estimate the relationship between CSR and silt content, clay content, initial relative density, consolidation stress, consolidation stress ratio, and cyclic resistance ratio. Response surface methodology (RSM) was employed to investigate the mutual influence among the five independent variables. On the basis of cyclic triaxial tests, particle flow code models were introduced to investigate the microscopic internal fabric changes of dredged silty-FS and the influence of extended factors on liquefaction. The average microscopic contact force and coordination number between particles controlled the macroscopic mechanical behavior of sands. Sand liquefaction was due to the cumulative loss of coordination number under cyclic loading. The average contact force between particles was linearly decreased to 0 and the coordination number sharply decreased when the sample reached initial liquefaction. On the basis of numerical tests, CSR increased with the increase in D₅₀ and vibration frequency. The influence of vibration frequency was relatively small. In addition, the CS–FS and CS–FS–CS combination layers showed greater liquefaction resistance than the FS layer. In the filling process, the interbed of FS and CS improved the liquefaction resistance of dredged silty-FS to a certain extent.     

南亚高压与西太平洋副热带高压对我国西南地区夏季降水异常的影响

利用1961～2010年全国台站观测资料中逐日平均降水资料,及同期NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,通过统计方法,研究分析了南亚高压东脊点和西太平洋副热带高压西脊点对我国西南地区夏季区域降水的影响。分析得到：对于1961～2010年我国西南地区夏季降水异常,南亚高压与西太平洋副热带高压其东西脊点之间的经距,在31候、36～37候以及45～46候,体现出明显异常特征。特别是涝年和旱年对比中,在这3个时段上存在明显差异。并且发现,31候时南亚高压东脊点与西太平洋副热带高压西脊点之间经距,与前一年的差距越大,我国西南地区该年夏季降水偏多,特别是中部与东部,效果更为显著。     

Basic Principles of Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) Accounting

Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is the gross value of all ecosystem products and services provided by ecosystems for human society. In practice, GEP measures the ecosystems' contributions to human well-being and constitutes one of the core issues in the construction of ecological civilization systems. Currently, GEP accounting faces a series of problems, such as the inconsistency of accounting subjects and a lack of accounting standards, the result of which is the non-reproducibility and weak applicability of accounting results. In this paper, mainstream models for ecosystem service valuation are summarized in a systematic manner. On this basis, eight basic principles are established for screening accounting indicators: biological productivity, human benefits, production territoriality, current increment, actual effectiveness, physical metrizability, data availability, and harmlessness. Next, a series of ecosystem service subjects are identified that need to be excluded from accounting, and the detailed reasons for their exclusion are presented. Finally, three ideas for improving GEP accounting are offered from the perspectives of the relationship between biological production and human production, the circulation-transport relationship and spatial differences, and harms to the ecosystem carrying capacity. The purpose is to provide positive considerations aimed at promoting the socio-economic applications of accounting and to contribute to the scientific quantification of the values of ecological products.     

地震孕育状态的地面物理测度--兼论研究方法问题

论述了地震孕育状态的地面物理测度问题，举出了两个地面物理测度的例子：地震活动性，微破裂导致的介质的各向异性；论述了实验在震源物理研究中的地位等问题。     

地震前长周期事件的研究——历史与现状

自20世纪60年代以来,已经积累了许多地震前长周期事件的观测资料。这些长周期事件可以被很多不同的观测系统记录到,如跨断层形变、超低频电磁异常、次声波异常、井下低频导波、井水水位等。理论上对地震前长周期事件已给出了许多论证,例如,震前的断层蠕动、静地震与慢地震、断层的断裂预扩展和地震成核等。解决震前长周期事件的地面可测性,对突破“震前平静”带来的短临预测的困惑会起到举足轻重的作用。目前的主要问题是缺乏网络化的系统观测和对物理机制的研究。     

Multi-scale geotechnical features of dredger fills and subsidence risk evaluation in reclaimed land using BN

Abstract

Shanghai has the largest newly reclaimed area in China’s coastal regions, and dredger fills are universally distributed in reclaimed lands there. Multi-scale geotechnical properties of dredger fills in region-scale (>1?km²), site-scale (1?m²–1?km²), mesoscale (1?cm²–1 m²), and microscale (1?µm²–1?cm²) were studied mainly through cone penetration investigation, borehole investigation, and microscopic inspections. Dredger impact craters, soil structures, and soil textures were investigated qualitatively and quantitatively to identify the dredger fills. Ultimate land subsidence since 1 July 2018 and land subsidence velocity characterized by the land subsidence from 1 July 2018 to 1 January 2019 were evaluated in Shanghai’s typical reclaimed regions. Afterwards, Bayesian network including sixteen variables was proposed for land subsidence risk assessment. Surface subsidence, land subsidence velocity, and comprehensive land subsidence were the most sensitive to data point location and average initial void ratio of underlying strata. These three risk variables were also highly correlated to the thickness of the dredger fill layer and the reclamation time. This finding indicates that variances of the four independent variables (i.e., data point location, average initial void of underlying strata, land reclamation time, and thickness of dredger fill layer) significantly decide variances of the three risk levels.     

Super-Enrichment of Dispersed Elements and Associated Ore Deposits

TheeightelementsGe ,Ga ,In ,Tl,Re,Cd ,Se ,andTeareusuallyreferredtoasdispersedelements.Therehasbeennostrictdefinitionpertainingtodispersedelements,andthedispersedele mentsrefertothoseelementswhichhavealoweraverageabundanceinthecrust (usuallyontheor derof 10 -6-10 -9) ,sosomescholarsholdthatthosedispersedelementscouldnotformindepen dentoredeposits.TheGrandEncyclopedia (thevolumeofgeology ,1993 ) presentssuchadescrip tionas:“Dispersedelementscannotformindependentoredepositsandtheyarepresent…