A numerical investigation of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation

Abstract

In this study, the development of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation that occurred during 12–14 February 1993 is examined using a high‐resolution version of the Canadian Regional Finite‐element (RFE) model with more realistic physical representations. It is shown that the improved RFE model predicts well the coastal cyclogenesis events and also the distribution and intensity of heavy mixed precipitation (rain and snow) associated with the storm. It is found that the cyclogenesis takes place in response to the low‐level inshore advection of high‐θ_e air from the maritime boundary layer, and the approach of a mid‐level shortwave trough with a warm pool above that is previously associated with a decaying cyclone upstream. More rapid deepening of the cyclone ensues as intense precipitation falls along the warm and cold fronts near the cyclone centre.

Diagnosis of the control and sensitivity simulations reveals that the low‐level inshore warm advection and the propagation of the stratospheric warm pool contribute more significantly to the surface pressure falls during the incipient stage, whereas the mid‐level shortwave trough plays an important role in the cyclogenesis at later stages. Overall, latent heat release accounts for about 50% of the cyclone's total deepening, in agreement with the presence of a moderate baroclinic environment and the generation of intense precipitation.

The diabatic and kinematic structures near the rain‐snow boundary are examined to gain insight into the influence of melting snow on the cyclogenesis. It is shown that the improved RFE model reproduces well the rain‐snow boundary structures as previously observed. Moreover, a thermally indirect circulation (perturbation) can be seen in the vicinity of the rain‐snow boundary. It is found, however, that melting of snow tends to produce a weak negative or negligible impact on the cyclogenesis, as opposed to previous hypotheses.     

两类中太平洋El Nio特征的对比分析

利用1979—2012年逐月Hadley中心海表温度、欧洲中期天气预报中心次表层海温、NCEP/NCAR风场再分析资料,对两类中太平洋(CP)El Nio及耦合的大气环流特征进行分析。结果表明,第一类CP El Nio(CP-ⅠEl Nio)增暖中心位于Nio4区且关于赤道对称;第二类CP El Nio(CP-ⅡEl Nio)的Nio4区与热带东北太平洋区域(NEP,130~110°W、15~25°N)同位相变化,冬季成熟后形成关于赤道非对称的带状增暖结构。进一步的研究表明,两类CP El Nio次表层结构存在差异:CP-ⅠEl Nio冬季次表层海温异常(SOTA)在中东太平洋与西太平洋呈显著偶极分布;CP-ⅡEl Nio在中、西太平洋位相相反但东太平洋异常较弱,且经向异常主要在赤道及其以北。两类CP El Nio耦合的大气环流特征不同:CP-ⅠEl Nio冬季异常Walker环流上升中心位于赤道上空,经向风向赤道辐合,低纬地区Hadley环流加强;CP-ⅡEl Nio冬季低层向北越赤道气流加强,Walker环流上升中心移到赤道以北,低纬地区Hadley环流减弱。     

Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity. A continuous δ¹⁸O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years, are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.     

甘肃北山牛圈子地区志留纪骆驼圈西岩体的岩石成因及构造意义

北山牛圈子地区的骆驼圈西埃达克岩为过铝质钙碱性岩浆系列,具有高的SiO_2(57.94%)、Al_2O_3(16.66%)和低的MgO(4.32%)含量,较高的Na_2O/K_2O比值(3.13),显示富钠的特征;而在微量元素上,高Sr(589×10~(-6)~1170×10~(-6)),低Y(4.60×10~(-6)~13.90×10~(-6))和Yb(0.43×10~(-6)~1.32×10~(-6));轻重稀土分异明显(La/Dy)N=4.60~13.87、(La/Yb)N=7.17~20.58,Eu异常不明显(Eu/Eu*=0.85~1.32);富集轻稀土和大离子亲石元素,而亏损高场强元素Nb,Ta,Ti和重稀土HREE,与世界上典型的俯冲洋壳熔融形成的埃达克岩特征相似。结合区域上埃达克岩的研究成果和岀露的构造位置,以及与牛圈子蛇绿岩的关系,认为骆驼圈西埃达克岩是志留纪(U-Pb年龄为428.9 Ma)时期热的洋壳向公婆泉—东七一山早古生代活动陆缘带俯冲过程中部分熔融的产物。对该岩体的研究,为进一步研究北山造山带早古生代北山洋盆闭合和晚古生代北山洋盆重新裂开提供新的依据。     

江淮气旋发生发展和暴雨过程及有关预报问题的研究

本文就一次典型过程作为例子,分析了江淮气旋发生发展和暴雨过程的特点,指出有利于江淮气旋发生发展的高空天气形势,地面一些中尺度低压和暴雨核的演变与气旋发展的互相联系。发现气旋区内可存在若干个中尺度低压,这些中尺度低压可先于或后于暴雨核生成而出现,并可增强、减弱或合并。文中计算了潜热释放的加热对涡度制造的贡献,指出潜热加热对气旋发展起着极为重要的作用。作者对于影响气旋发展的因子进行了讨论,并对如何根据湿度场、流场和降水分布(或卫星云图)特征来预报江淮气旋提出建议。     

三亚三美湾和鹿回头湾人工沙滩设计

通过分析三亚三美湾和鹿回头湾不同的海岸地貌、沉积物类型、水动力条件和岸线形态,结合岸滩演变和水动力数值模型,因地制宜提出不同的人工沙滩设计方法、平面布置方案,选取了粒径合适的回填沙,确定了合理的防波(潜)堤修筑位置和高程。人工沙滩工程完成后滩面形态、岸线走向和景观稳定,达到了改善海岸环境的预期效果。     

珠江口盆地番禺4洼文昌组基于层序地层格架约束下的优质烃源岩预测

珠江口盆地番禺4洼“小而肥”,目前的探明石油地质储量已超出早期估算的地质资源量,早期对烃源岩的认识不足可能是其主要原因,尤其是对优质烃源岩的分布范围仍缺少精确刻画,在很大程度上限制了对该洼陷勘探潜力的认知。以该难点问题为切入点,利用最新钻井和地震资料,采取层序地层学开展了番禺4洼烃源岩的预测工作。通过地震资料上识别的各种反射特征,结合区内已有钻井资料识别的旋回特征,将番禺4洼文昌组划分5个三级层序,进而建立了等时地层格架。在此基础上,综合运用地震沉积学最新技术手段,精细揭示了番禺4洼文昌组文三段优质烃源岩的分布范围。研究结果表明,番禺4洼优质烃源岩分布面积较为广泛,尤其在北次洼和西次洼,优质源岩面积均超过了以往预期。这一研究成果对本区和珠江口盆地油气勘探具有一定指导意义。     

江西省“三农”服务专项建设现状与思考

通过对江西省24个"三农"服务专项建设实施地的"两个体系"建设情况开展实地调查,分析了江西省"三农"服务专项建设在提高气象为农服务现代化、促进气象工作政府化、惠民利民等三方面取得的成效,总结了各地的建设内容、成功经验、工作亮点和特色,梳理了存在的问题,并结合建设现状和有关要求,对今后江西省"三农"服务专项建设提出了六个方面的具体建议。     

地震地貌学研究的现状及展望

地震地貌学是通过三维地震资料平面及空间特征,结合地震地层学理论,来解读和还原古地貌、古沉积和其他地质信息的一门综合性学科,其核心技术是通过快速浏览三维地震资料主测线、联络测线及时间切片等来识别"特殊地质体"。该学科的建立,在真正意义上实现了地震解释从二维到三维的跨越,已在指导勘探和储层预测上发挥了巨大作用。从层位解释、平行解释层位切片或地层切片、振幅属性提取和分析、地震信号体素追踪、特殊属性数据体分析以及多数据体属性叠加显示等六大方面介绍了地震地貌学分析技术的应用实例。地震地貌学还处在起步阶段,未来的发展趋势将会主要集中于:(1)海相和陆相背景下碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩沉积演化研究;(2)基于地震资料的生储盖层及源岩岩性的精确预测,如深水沉积环境下河道砂体精细追踪及河道内部沉积结构划分等;(3)层序地层学理论与模式的改进与发展;(4)储层物性定量化研究、储层非均质性研究以及更加先进的分析技术手段等。