Probabilistic landslide susceptibility mapping in the Lai Chau province of Vietnam: focus on the relationship between tectonic fractures and landslides

This study evaluates the susceptibility of landslides in the Lai Chau province of Vietnam using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing data to focus on the relationship between tectonic fractures and landslides. Landslide locations were identified from aerial photographs and field surveys. Topographic, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS data and image-processing techniques. A scheme of the tectonic fracturing of crust in the Lai Chau region was established. Lai Chau was identified as a region with many crustal fractures, where the grade of tectonic fracture is closely related to landslide occurrence. The influencing factors of landslide occurrence were: distance from a tectonic fracture, slope, aspect, curvature, soil, and vegetative land cover. Landslide prone areas were analyzed and mapped using the landslide occurrence factors employing the probability–frequency ratio model. The results of the analysis were verified using landslide location data and showed 83.47% prediction accuracy. That emphasized a strong relationship between the susceptibility map and the existing landslide location data. The results of this study can form a basis stable development and land use planning for the region.     

Sr/Sr and Sr/Ca in speleothems for paleoclimate reconstruction in Central China between 70 and 280 kyr ago

Limestone cave deposits (speleothems) provide archives for past changes in regional climates over a range of timescales. While δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in speleothem calcite have been commonly used for reconstruction of paleoclimates, we report here further efforts in the use of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Sr/Ca signals in speleothem calcite to deduce paleomonsoon variability near the Loess Plateau of central China. A two end-member mass-balance model of concentration and isotopic composition of strontium in a cave system is used to estimate variation of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio in sediments overlying a limestone cave. We show that this ratio reflects climate-driven variations in the provenance and the extent of chemical weathering of the epikarstic sediments. The measurements of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr made on a well-dated stalagmite, SFL, from Buddha Cave (33^o40N′ 109^o05′E) show ratios of 0.71092 to 0.71133 (±0.00001 as 2σ) during relatively cold periods (e.g., Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5b, 5d, and 8), lower than ratios of 0.71133 to 0.71194 during relatively warm periods (e.g., MIS 5a, 5c, 5e, and 7). As changes in the Sr/Ca ratio may affect speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, we show that the direct use of speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr is less ideal than our modeled ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr for the exogenic Sr source above the cave as a paleomonsoon proxy. Using the δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, Sr/Ca, and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr records of the stalagmite, we reconstruct the variability of the East Asian monsoon for the time period between 70 and 280 kyr ago. The results show that summer monsoons were more intense during interglacial periods than during glacial periods.     

北冰洋海冰和海水变异对海洋生态系统的潜在影响

最近30年来,北冰洋海冰和海水发生了急剧变化:海冰覆盖面积减少、冰层变薄、水温升高、淡水输入增加、污染加剧,正威胁着现有与海冰关系密切的生态系统。预期随着变化的持续,与海冰相关的食物链将在部分海域消失并被较低纬度的海洋物种所取代、总初级生产力有望增加并为人类带来更多的渔获量、而北极熊和海象等以海冰作为栖息和捕食场所的大型哺乳动物的生存前景堪忧。今后人类将更为重视对北冰洋生态环境变化规律的认识并加以运用、关注北冰洋特有物种的命运并加以力所能及的保护、评估北冰洋生态系统的变化对人类社会经济的影响以期及早采取应对措施。数据积累是目前制约北极研究的最大障碍,但随着 SEARCH 等大型国际研究计划的实施,对北冰洋生态系统的监测和研究将更为系统和全面。     

中国南极软科学研究的意义、现状与展望

本文指出中国的南极研究大多集中在自然科学,而软科学研究相对薄弱,存在着研究领域较少和研究深度不够等不足,这会制约我国在国际南极事务中的话语权、应有权益和国际地位。为了提高中国在国际南极政治和南极事务中的地位,应重视和加强南极软科学研究。文章分析了南极软科学的研究现状和存在的问题,对今后的研究方向和课题进行了展望和讨论,可供极地软科学研究者和管理层参考。     

北方农牧交错带退耕还林还草经济政策优化调控

退耕还林还草作为北方农牧交错带生态重建的切入点,在实际操作中也不可避免地存在一定的问题。文章对当前退耕还林还草的社会经济特征、政策安排、协调机制及制约因素进行了分析。提出:区域粮食适度自给定位、部门协调机制创新、产权制度改革、区域产业专业化分工、适度生态移民及建立生态补偿机制为进行政策优化调控的主要途径。     

青藏高原腹地植物碳同位素组成对环境条件的响应

现代植物碳同位素组成是特定环境影响的结果,通过对植物碳同位素组成的研究可以揭示植物生长期环境信息。针对青藏高原腹地高寒草甸~高寒草原过渡区植被碳同位素组成进行研究;该区高山嵩草样δ13C值在-25.63‰~-27.95‰间,平均值-26.63‰;高寒草原区混合样δ13C值于-26.29‰~-27.73‰间,平均值-27.04‰。高山嵩草样δ13C值总体呈现由南东往北西方向正偏趋势,研究区北部高寒草原区混合植物样也呈现出由南向北富重碳同位素趋势。这些变化规律被认为是主要受降水环境影响的结果,而区域内降水条件的展布规律则是受高原夏季风运移方式的控制。对植物δ13C值与地理位置的回归分析表明,该区植被碳同位素组成与地理位置相关,高山嵩草样(r=0.44603,n=29,p<0.05)和混合样(r=0.8112,n=5,p<0.1)均表现出对区域降水环境条件的良好响应。据此,以该区植物δ13C值为背景,进行合理推算,拟定了研究区内干旱区和湿润区界限的位置。     

Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland

Natural Hazards - Hurricane Isabel (2003) generated record flooding around Chesapeake Bay and caused extensive damage in rural Eastern Shore of Maryland and metropolitan cities like Baltimore....     

Fracture mechanics analysis of multiple cracks in anisotropic media

This paper presents a single‐domain boundary element method (BEM) for linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis in the two‐dimensional anisotropic material. In this formulation, the displacement integral equation is collocated on the un‐cracked boundary only, and the traction integral equation is collocated on one side of the crack surface only. A special crack‐tip element was introduced to capture exactly the crack‐tip behavior. A computer program with the FORTRAN language has been developed to effectively calculate the stress intensity factors of an anisotropic material. This BEM program has been verified having a good accuracy with the previous researches. Furthermore, by analyzing the different anisotropic degree cracks in a finite plate, we found that the stress intensity factors of crack tips had apparent influence by the geometry forms of cracks and media with different anisotropic degrees. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

A real-time inertial-aided cycle slip detection method based on ARIMA-GARCH model for inaccurate lever arm conditions

GPS Solutions - The GPS satellite transmitter antenna phase center offsets (PCOs) can be estimated in a global adjustment by constraining the ground station coordinates to the current International...