Uncertainties in modelling future hydrological change over West Africa

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the impact of increasing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations on the West African monsoon. For this purpose, coupled and time-slice simulations are used. A global measure of the monsoon changes is defined in order to avoid regional biases and to try and obtain significant results. The position and width of the monsoon in latitude are the main focuses. There is almost no agreement between the Coupled General Circulation models from the Coupled models Inter-Comparison project—Phase II in regard to the impact of climate change on the monsoon. Moreover, very simple discriminations between the models seem inappropriate to get a better signal. The role of the different forcings in time-slice simulations is then investigated. The sea surface temperature (SST) and particularly the pattern of the SST are shown to be the most important forcing. This accounts for the diversity of the results either from the coupled or the forced simulations with different SST changes. With a fixed SST, but of a smaller magnitude in AMJ, there are still uncertainties, coming first from the Atmospheric General Circulation models and the way they balance greenhouse gas and global SST increase. Finally the uncertainty due to the Land Surface models (LSMs) is not negligible. The greenhouse gas and the LSMs are shown to have more impact in August, when the monsoon is at its highest latitude on the continent.     

甘肃酒泉荒漠戈壁灌木群落优势物种生态位特征

了解物种利用资源和占据生态空间的能力,对维持完善和科学保育荒漠戈壁植物群落的多样性具有重要意义。在综合反映各生态因子作用的群落类型和海拔梯度组合而成的两条资源轴上,测度分析了甘肃酒泉荒漠戈壁灌木群落主要优势种的生态位特征。结果表明：(1)在群落类型和海拔梯度两条资源轴上,红砂（Reaumuria songarica）、泡泡刺（Nitraria sphaerocarpa）和合头草（Sympegma regelii）的重要值和生态位宽度均较大,说明这些物种适应能力强,能够较好地利用环境资源,分布范围大,作为荒漠戈壁灌木群落中的广域种具有重要的生态地位和作用。(2)荒漠戈壁优势物种间的生态位重叠值多数较小,在群落类型和海拔梯度资源轴上生态位重叠值小于0.5的分别占总种对的62.63%和77.89%。生态位宽度大的物种之间一般生态位重叠值较高,物种利用资源能力强且存在竞争关系;然而,生态位宽度较小的物种与其他物种之间的生态位重叠程度较低,不同物种在环境资源的需求上产生互补,可以和谐共存;生态位宽度小的物种之间生态位重叠值仍较高,物种分布呈斑块现象;因此,生态位重叠与生态位宽度之间无显著相关性。(3)荒漠戈壁优势物种间总体表现为不显著的正关联,表明该植被群落结构及其物种之间处于稳定共存的状态。     

国外脆弱性理论模型与评估框架研究评述

目前,脆弱性研究作为一种新的研究范式已经在多学科领域中得到了广泛应用,并取得了丰硕成果.但随着研究的深入,学者们发现,由于学科背景及研究视角的差异性,不同研究领域之间存在着结论不兼容和工作重复等问题,迫切需要一个可行的理论模型与评估框架来整合其理论和实践的研究.在对脆弱性概念内涵的发展演变过程分析的基础上,对国外多学科领域中的脆弱性理论模型及评估框架进行了对比研究和评述.研究发现:脆弱性概念的泛化是制约通用脆弱性理论模型与评估框架的关键因素,结合未来脆弱性研究的发展方向,对整合的脆弱性理论模型与评估框架提出了4个方面的要求,即多时空尺度特征、多重扰动特征、耦合系统特征和人文特征.     

基于重磁数据梯度比值的深度学习技术实现场源位置反演方法

场源中心位置的计算是重磁数据反演的主要任务之一,现主要通过异常与场源位置之间的数学物理方程来估算地质体的位置.为了快速、准确获得地质体的位置信息,提出基于重磁梯度比值的深度学习技术实现场源位置的获取;其利用深度学习技术所建立的重磁梯度比值水平分布与地质体埋深、构造指数的关系,快速实现异常场源位置计算,且提出利用多个值的...     

新疆普鲁一带下古生界地层岩石组合及构造环境

西昆仑地块是西昆仑造山带的重要组成部分，南北边界分别为康西瓦—苏巴什华力西期缝合带和库地—其曼于特加里东期缝合带。新疆普鲁一带下古生界地层，分布于西昆仑地块东部，主要由一套海相火山岩和浅海陆棚相细碎屑岩组成，并遭受了绿片岩相的变质作用。通过1：25万《于田一伯力克幅)区调工作，将新疆普鲁一带下古生界地层厘定为下古生界奥陶—志留系，认为形成的大地构造环境为大陆活动边缘。     

Time-Varying Multifractal Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Loaded Coal Electromagnetic Radiation

Dynamic collapses of deeply mined coal rocks are severe threats to miners. To predict the collapses more accurately using electromagnetic radiation (EMR), we investigate the time-varying multifractal characteristics and formation mechanism of EMR induced by underground coal mining. A series of uniaxial compression and multi-stage loading experiments with coal samples of different mechanical properties were carried out. The EMR signals during their damage evolution were monitored in real-time; the inherent law of EMR time series was analyzed by fractal theory. The results show that the time-varying multifractal characteristics of EMR are determined by damage evolutions process, the dissipated energy caused by damage evolutions such as crack propagation, fractal sliding and shearing can be regard as the fingerprint of various EMR micro-mechanics. Based on the Irreversible thermodynamics and damage mechanics, we introduced the damage internal variable, constructed the dissipative potential function and established the coupled model of the EMR and the dissipative energy, which revealed the nature of dynamic nonlinear characteristics of EMR. Dynamic multifractal spectrum is the objective response of EMR signals, thus it can be used to evaluate the coal deformation and fracture process.     

黄河上游云凝结核观测研究

分析了2001、2001年8月在黄河上游的玛曲－河南县利用美国Mee公司的130型云凝结核计数器观测的资料，讨论了凝结核的谱型，浓度随饱和度、天气状况及一些气象要素变化的关系，通过与其它地方观测结果的比较，可以看出在地表植被较好的黄河上游牧区，人类活动、污染较少，其自然凝结核少，浓度与青岛的测值相近，与海洋过饱和核谱型接近。     

口服免疫药物后中国对虾某些血淋巴因子的测定及方法研究

于１９９１年４－９月，以海捕中国对虾亲虾及养殖中国对虾为材料，运用单向免疫扩散（ＳＲＩＤ）方法测定对虾血淋巴免疫因子，并采用经改进后的Ｈｏｒｏｗｉｔｚ等人的方法测定对虾体内的酚氧化酶（ＰＯ）活性，目的在于运用该两种方法对口服不同免疫药物的养殖对虾的血淋巴免疫因子及ＰＯ活力进行测定。对亲虾和养殖对虾口服不同免疫药物前后的测定结果表明，几种情况下的对虾血淋巴中均存在类似ＩｇＭ的因子，血细胞中存在酚氧化     

地电场对青藏高原东北部季节冻土的响应特性

地电场的变化与台址环境的水文、气象及地质背景等相关,在青藏高原东北部季节冻土区,11个地电场台站处于较高的海拔,据台址下覆场地属性分为A类（黄土型）和B类（高原草场型）台站。通过对青藏高原季节冻土区域的地电场和大地电流场的计算和分析,联系区域构造活动和地质环境得出以下认识：青藏高原东北部季节冻土区地电场变化对水热环境响应明显,冬、夏两季测值可能发生跃变;长周期的地电场变化曲线可能与台址附近气温变化相关;台站大地电流矢量在冻土部分冻融交替过程中发生方向和幅度值的改变。A类和B类台址显示出不同的季节变化规律,地电场曲线上升和下降的时间节点各异,这种现象可应用于监测该区域冻土冻融情况和冻土的时空演变。     

关于建立学习型企业的思考

从企业管理发展趋势的需要,加入WTO后的迫切要求,增强企业竞争力重要手段等方面,阐述了在新世纪新形势下建立学习型企业的必要性。对建立学习型企业的前提、机制、学习方式、创新文化建设等基本途径进行了论述,并提出了建立学习型企业值得注意的问题。