The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.     

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.     

δB, Sr, Mg and B in a modern Porites coral: the relationship between calcification site pH and skeletal chemistry

Sr/Ca, B/Ca, Mg/Ca and δ¹¹B were determined at high spatial resolution across ∼1 year of a modern Hawaiian Porites lobata coral by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). We observe significant variations in B/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and δ¹¹B over short skeletal distances (nominally equivalent to periods of <20 days). This heterogeneity probably reflects variations in the composition of the extracellular calcifying fluid (ECF) from which the skeleton precipitates. Calcification site pH (total scale) was estimated from skeletal δ¹¹B and ranged from 8.3 to 8.8 (± ∼0.1) with a mean of ∼8.6. Sr/Ca and B/Ca heterogeneity is not simply correlated with calcification site pH, as might be expected if Ca-ATPase activity increases the pH and decreases the Sr/Ca and B(OH)₄⁻/CO₃²⁻ ratios of the ECF. We produced a simple model of the ECF composition and the skeleton deposited from it, over a range of calcium transport and carbonate scenarios, which can account for these observed geochemical variations. The relationship between the pH and Sr/Ca of the ECF is dependent on the concentration of DIC at the calcification site. At higher DIC concentrations the ECF has a high capacity to buffer the [H⁺] changes induced by Ca-ATPase pumping. Conversely, at low DIC concentrations, this buffering capacity is reduced and ECF pH changes more rapidly in response to Ca-ATPase pumping. The absence of a simple correlation between ECF pH and skeletal Sr/Ca implies that calcification occurred under a range of DIC concentrations, reflecting variations in the respiration and photosynthesis of the coral and symbiotic zooxanthellate in the overlying coral tissues. Our observations have important implications for the use of coral skeletons as indicators of palaeo-ocean pH.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions.     

Seasonal variation of hepatic mixed function oxidases in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus)

Indices of hepatic mixed function oxidase (MFO) activity in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) were measured at approximately monthly intervals from November 1983 to October 1985. Benzo[a]pyrene hydroxylase and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activities and cytochromes P450 and b₅ were generally, but not significantly, higher in males than in females. The MFO activity varied seasonally, reaching a maximum during or shortly after spawning. Variation in MFO enzyme activity between sexes was never greater than 2-fold at any time, and within sex, no greater than 6-fold during the seasonal cycle. This variability is less than that caused by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of some pollutants; measurements of MFO activity in this species might therefore be used to indicate environmental contamination.     

Marine vs. terrigenous organic matter in Louisiana coastal sediments: The uses of bromine:organic carbon ratios

Recent data on the sources of organic carbon buried in the ocean have emphasized the probable importance of terrigenous organic matter in burial budgets of deltaic depocenters. The many markers used to assess relative importance of marine vs. terrestrial sources each have ambiguities. We use the ratio of bromine to organic carbon (Br:OC) as a source indicator for organic matter in the Mississippi delta. Progressive increases in bromine concentrations from the river to the slope indicate increasing content of marine-derived organic matter. Quantitative estimates of marine vs. terrigenous organic matter using Br:OC ratios in a two-endmember mixing model are consistent with recent estimates using a combination of three other source markers [Gordon, E.S., Goñi, M.A. 2003. Sources and distribution of terrigenous organic matter delivered by the Atchafalaya River to sediments in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 67:2359–2375]. The Br:OC vs. δ¹³C relationship indicates seaward increase in δ¹³C without proportionate incorporation of marine organic matter, consistent with recent arguments that isotopically depleted terrestrial detritus derived from C3 plants is separated from C4-derived terrigenous organic matter during transport. Decreasing Br:OC ratios downcore at many sites that have significant amounts of marine organic matter indicate that the marine organic matter is preferentially lost during burial diagenesis. This preferential loss constrains the contribution of organic matter burial in deltaic environments to global removal of Br.     

Regional geologic environs and natural resources of Badia Sector, Jordan

 This paper summarizes the information on the geology and natural resources of the Jordan Badia Research and Development Programme. The research focused on the issue of the environment in arid lands as an aid to provide practical options for sustainable development. This paper presents results of field studies in the following areas related to the sustainable development of the Safawi area in the northern Jordan Badia; geomorphology, including landform, soil, lands, processes and hazards, geology and physical resources and surface water hydrology. Tertiary-Quaternary continental basalt flows and tuffs cover approximately 11 000 km², the majority of the Safawi area. In addition to extensive basalt lava flows, the programme area includes a variety of geological outcrops and potential sources of economic products that include the following: Tuff/Scoria, Zeolite/Olivine, Porcellanite, potential sources of aggregate/construction materials, ornamental stone, building stone, basalt for manufacturing of rock wool, and materials suitable for producing lightweight aggregate. The whole of the eastern Badia exhibits major fault systems, many of which were identified from Landsat TM images. The system of wadis which drains the Badia is extensive, with the general flow from the north to the south and south-west. A noticeable geomorphic surficial deposit occuring throughout much of the Badia is fine-grained, water-lain sediments that vary in size and character. The local designation for the fine sediment deposits is Qaa. An MSS scene for the area under consideration has been studied. Twelve major geomorphic subdivisions or zones can be identified. Individual land system units have been identified by traversing the programme area. Key sites have been visited based on Landsat TM image interpretation. To a large extent, key areas were subdivided after their initial identification on the Landsat scene and corroboration in the field. The surface drainage of the Badia region can be broadly divided into wadi systems, areas of distinct channelized flow, and Qaa, predominantly fine-grained sedimentary basins of low relief. Spatial variability in infiltration rates across the wadi-Qaa system were determined from field experiments. Infiltration rates were found to be medium-high in the wadi channels but decrease rapidly for the Qaa materials. Apparently runoff from wadi side slopes will be high, and water storage occurs along the wadi channels while ponding occurs in the Qaa areas. Received: 13 March 1997 · Accepted: 13 January 1998     

Becoming Reading Group: reflections on assembling a collegiate,caring collective

ABSTRACT

In neoliberalising universities, collegial and collective practices such as reading groups are often positioned by students, staff and managers as less important than meeting individual KPIs (such as producing research publications, seeking research grants, or meeting the increasing demands of producing quality teaching outcomes.) However, reading groups can be vital for cultivating caring collectives and spaces of collegiality. In this paper we use assemblage thinking to explore 25 years of a Geography reading group at the University of Newcastle. The paper addresses two questions: what does reading together do and make possible; and how might we think about the labours of reading together as a way of building caring collectives. The paper draws on reflections from 24 past and present members of reading group to explore how these kinds of academic practices nourish our working lives.     

The Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database: A New Classification Scheme and Statistics on Arctic Permafrost Coastlines

Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447?km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5?m? year^?1 with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.     

Simultaneous and sequential approaches to joint optimization of well placement and control

Determining optimal well placement and control is essential to maximizing production from an oil field. Most academic literature to date has treated optimal placement and control as two separate problems; well placement problems, in particular, are often solved assuming some fixed flow rate or bottom-hole pressure at injection and production wells. Optimal placement of wells, however, does depend on the control strategy being employed. Determining a truly optimal configuration of wells thus requires that the control parameters be allowed to vary as well. This presents a challenging optimization problem, since well location and control parameters have different properties from one another. In this paper, we address the placement and control optimization problem jointly using approaches that combine a global search strategy (particle swarm optimization, or PSO) with a local generalized pattern search (GPS) strategy. Using PSO promotes a full, semi-random exploration of the search space, while GPS allows us to locally optimize parameters in a systematic way. We focus primarily on two approaches combining these two algorithms. The first is to hybridize them into a single algorithm that acts on all variables simultaneously, while the second is to apply them sequentially to decoupled well placement and well control problems. We find that although the best method for a given problem is context-specific, decoupling the problem may provide benefits over a fully simultaneous approach.