Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution

Beginning in the mid-1990s, re-eutrophication has reemerged as severe problems in Lake Erie. Controlling non-point source (NPS) nutrient pollution from cropland, especially dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), is the key to restore water quality in Lake Erie. To address NPS pollution, previous studies have analyzed the effectiveness of alternative spatially optimal land use and management strategies (represented as agricultural conservation practices (CPs)). However, few studies considered both strategies and have analyzed and compared their sensitivity to expected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we evaluated impacts of climatic change on the economic efficiency of these strategies for DRP abatement, using an integrated modeling approach that includes a watershed model, an economic valuation component, and a spatial optimization model. A series of climate projections representing relatively high greenhouse gas emission scenarios was developed for the western Lake Erie basin to drive the watershed model. We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (>?71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~?78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate.     

Evaluation of a Movie Theater Advertisement Campaign to Promote Behaviors that Prevent Spread of Aquatic Invasive Species

One of the primary causes of the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS) is boaters and anglers who move between bodies of water. Engaging with recreational boaters and anglers to encourage preventative behaviors is crucial for managing the spread of AIS. The use of cinema advertising for disseminating pro-environmental messages is a relatively novel and understudied outreach strategy. To explore this approach, an AIS-related public service announcement was placed in the preshow advertising at a movie theater in north central Wisconsin. Movie patrons were surveyed as they left the theater to determine demographic, AIS awareness, advertising exposure, and recall information. The results of this study suggest movie theater advertising is a potentially efficacious medium for pro-environmental outreach efforts.     

Decentralized and coordinate-free computation of critical points and surface networks in a discretized scalar field

This article provides a decentralized and coordinate-free algorithm, called decentralized gradient field (DGraF), to identify critical points (peaks, pits, and passes) and the topological structure of the surface network connecting those critical points. Algorithms that can operate in the network without centralized control and without coordinates are important in emerging resource-constrained spatial computing environments, in particular geosensor networks. Our approach accounts for the discrepancies between finite granularity sensor data and the underlying continuous field, ignored by previous work. Empirical evaluation shows that our DGraF algorithm can improve the accuracy of critical points identification when compared with the current state-of-the-art decentralized algorithm and matches the accuracy of a centralized algorithm for peaks and pits. The DGraF algorithm is efficient, requiring O(n) overall communication complexity, where n is the number of nodes in the geosensor network. Further, empirical investigations of our algorithm across a range of simulations demonstrate improved load balance of DGraF when compared with an existing decentralized algorithm. Our investigation highlights a number of important issues for future research on the detection of holes and the monitoring of dynamic events in a field.     

Spatio-temporal Variability in Larval-Stage Feeding and Nutritional Sources as Factors Influencing Striped Bass (Morone saxatilis) Recruitment Success

Prey availability and feeding success affect survival of larval striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in Chesapeake Bay and contribute to the >30-fold interannual recruitment variability. Gut contents and stable isotope analyses (δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C) were conducted on striped bass larvae to evaluate sources of nutrition in 2007 and 2008, years of high and poor recruitment, respectively. Ichthyoplankton and zooplankton were surveyed in the upper Chesapeake Bay, in proximity to the estuarine turbidity maximum and associated salt front. Feeding incidence and numbers of prey per gut were similar in both years and varied in relation to the salt front. The primary prey in each year was the estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis. Substantial consumption of the freshwater cladoceran Bosmina spp. also occurred, especially up-estuary of the salt front in 2007, demonstrating that secondary prey are important to larval diets in some years. Stable isotope analysis of yolk sac and feeding-stage larvae of striped bass revealed an ontogenetic shift from maternal stable isotope signatures to those indicative of prey source. Feeding-stage larvae from up-estuary locations had the most negative δ¹³C values, indicating a relatively high terrestrial carbon source in prey. Spatio-temporal variability in δ¹⁵N signatures of larvae followed similar trends of δ¹⁵N variability in zooplankton prey with the highest δ¹⁵N values up-estuary of the salt front and estuarine turbidity maximum. A stable isotope analysis on archived striped bass larvae collected in 1998 and 2003, years of moderate and high recruitment, respectively, expanded the documented range of isotope signatures but did not clearly distinguish effects of nutritional sources on recruitment.     

Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor

An analysis and evaluation has been performed of global datasets on column-integrated water vapor (precipitable water). For years before 1996, the Ross and Elliott radiosonde dataset is used for validation of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses ERA-40. Only the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) dataset from remote sensing systems (RSS) has credible means, variability and trends for the oceans, but it is available only for the post-1988 period. Major problems are found in the means, variability and trends from 1988 to 2001 for both reanalyses from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the ERA-40 reanalysis over the oceans, and for the NASA water vapor project (NVAP) dataset more generally. NCEP and ERA-40 values are reasonable over land where constrained by radiosondes. Accordingly, users of these data should take great care in accepting results as real. The problems highlight the need for reprocessing of data, as has been done by RSS, and reanalyses that adequately take account of the changing observing system. Precipitable water variability for 1988–2001 is dominated by the evolution of ENSO and especially the structures that occurred during and following the 1997–98 El Niño event. The evidence from SSM/I for the global ocean suggests that recent trends in precipitable water are generally positive and, for 1988 through 2003, average 0.40±0.09 mm per decade or 1.3±0.3% per decade for the ocean as a whole, where the error bars are 95% confidence intervals. Over the oceans, the precipitable water variability relates very strongly to changes in SSTs, both in terms of spatial structure of trends and temporal variability (with a regression coefficient for 30°N–30°S of 7.8% K^?1) and is consistent with the assumption of fairly constant relative humidity. In the tropics, the trends are also influenced by changes in rainfall which, in turn, are closely associated with the mean flow and convergence of moisture by the trade winds. The main region where positive trends are not very evident is over Europe, in spite of large and positive trends over the North Atlantic since 1988. A much longer time series is probably required to obtain stable patterns of trends over the oceans, although the main variability could probably be deduced from past SST and associated precipitation variations.     

Determination of Selenium and Tellurium in Basalt Rock Reference Materials by Isotope Dilution Hydride Generation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ID-HG-ICP-MS)

Promising methods have been developed recently for the determination of selenium (Se) and tellurium (Te) in geological materials at ng g⁻¹ and lower levels, using hydride generation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Here we report on a new isotope dilution-hydride generation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ID-HG-ICP-MS) method for the simultaneous determination of Se and Te, which is applied to basalts, and modified compared to previous work. The basalts were attacked and dissolved with hydrofluoric and nitric acid, spiked with enriched isotopes, and passed through a cation exchange column (AG 50-X8 100–200 mesh) to separate the major cations that interfere with Se and Te detection (e.g., Fe). The detection limits of this method were 0.010 ng g⁻¹ for Se and 0.0030 ng g⁻¹ for Te, well below the concentrations of Se and Te expected in basalts. The precision of the method for Se was 12.2 to 15.1% and for Te was 4.6 to 7.2% RSD from replicate analyses of basalt reference samples. The accuracy for Se determinations was 61 to 94% and for Te 28 to 100% of values previously reported in the literature for selected USGS reference materials.     

Controls on Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca in scleractinian corals: The effects of Ca-ATPase and transcellular Ca channels on skeletal chemistry

The Sr/Ca of aragonitic coral skeletons is a commonly used palaeothermometer. However skeletal Sr/Ca is typically dominated by weekly-monthly oscillations which do not reflect temperature or seawater composition and the origins of which are currently unknown. To test the impact of transcellular Ca²⁺ transport processes on skeletal Sr/Ca, colonies of the branching coral, Pocillopora damicornis, were cultured in the presence of inhibitors of Ca-ATPase (ruthenium red) and Ca channels (verapamil hydrochloride). The photosynthesis, respiration and calcification rates of the colonies were monitored throughout the experiment. The skeleton deposited in the presence of the inhibitors was identified (by ⁴²Ca spike) and analysed for Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca by secondary ion mass spectrometry. The Sr/Ca of the aragonite deposited in the presence of either of the inhibitors was not significantly different from that of the solvent (dimethyl sulfoxide) control, although the coral calcification rate was reduced by up to 66% and 73% in the ruthenium red and verapamil treatments, respectively. The typical precision (95% confidence limits) of mean Sr/Ca determinations within any treatment was <±1% and differences in skeletal Sr/Ca between treatments were correspondingly small. Either Ca-ATPase and Ca channels transport Sr²⁺ and Ca²⁺ in virtually the same ratio in which they are present in seawater or transcellular processes contribute little Ca²⁺ to the skeleton and most Ca is derived from seawater transported directly to the calcification site. Variations in the activities of Ca-ATPase and Ca-channels are not responsible for the weekly-monthly Sr/Ca oscillations observed in skeletal chronologies, assuming that the specificities of Ca transcellular transport processes are similar between coral genera.