A Study of DMS Oxidation in the Tropics: Comparison of Christmas Island Field Observations of DMS, SO2, and DMSO with Model Simulations

This study reports comparisonsbetween model simulations, based on current sulfurmechanisms, with the DMS, SO₂ and DMSOobservational data reported by Bandy et al.(1996) in their 1994 Christmas Island field study. For both DMS and SO₂, the model results werefound to be in excellent agreement with theobservations when the observations were filtered so asto establish a common meteorological environment. Thisfiltered DMS and SO₂ data encompassedapproximately half of the total sampled days. Basedon these composite profiles, it was shown thatoxidation of DMS via OH was the dominant pathway withno more than 5 to 15% proceeding through Cl atoms andless than 3% through NO₃. This analysis wasbased on an estimated DMS sea-to-air flux of 3.4 ×10⁹ molecs cm^-2 s^-1. The dominant sourceof BL SO₂ was oxidation of DMS, the overallconversion efficiency being evaluated at 0.65 ± 0.15. The major loss of SO₂ was deposition to theocean's surface and scavenging by aerosol. Theresulting combined first order k value was estimated at 1.6 × 10^-5 s^-1. In contrast to the DMSand SO₂ simulations, the model under-predictedthe observed DMSO levels by nearly a factor of 50. Although DMSO instrument measurement problems can notbe totally ruled out, the possibility of DMSO sourcesother than gas phase oxidation of DMS must beseriously considered and should be explored in futurestudies.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.     

Soil creep: problems raised by a 23 year study in Australia

In October 1965 and February 1966, 55 Young-pits were installed in tropical Northern Territory (NT) and temperate New South Wales (NSW). Pits were monitored in 1968, 1971 and 1974; also, for the NT only, in 1988. In each region, half of the pits are on weathered granite, and half on sandstone. Local relief is 30m or less, and slopes are up to 20°. Annual rainfall is evenly distributed in the NSW sites (800 mm a⁻¹), but is confined to the five to six month wet season in NT (1200 mm a⁻¹). Six pits suffered external disturbance and so were not analysed. Analysis of 160 rods in 49 undisturbed pits shows: (1) vectorial movement generally not downslope parallel to the ground surface, but dominated by a vertically downward component; (2) significant uphill and vertically upward components of movement for many rods; (3) a weak correlation between total movement and sine of slope; (4) rapid movement during 1965-68, and slow movement thereafter; (5) significantly higher creep rates on the NT granites than on all other sites, perhaps because mound-building termites are especially active there. We conclude that our data do not support soil creep models which assume that all movement is downslope and slope-parallel. Repeated long-term measurements are essential to distinguish long-term creep rates from the short-term effects of disturbance. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A refined seismic analysis and design of buried pipeline for fault movement

Some lifelines, such as gas and oil transmission lines and water and sewer pipelines, have been damaged in recent earthquakes. The damages of these lifelines may cause major, catastrophic disruption of essential services for human needs. Large abrupt differential ground movements that result from an active fault present one of the most severe effects of an earthquake on a buried pipeline system. Although simplified analysis procedures for buried pipelines across strike-slip fault zones that cause tensile failure of the pipeline have been proposed, the results are not accurate enough because of several assumptions involved, such as the omission of flexural rigidity of the pipe, simplification of soil resistant characteristics, etc. Note that the omission of flexural rigidity cannot satisfy equilibrium conditions for pipelines across a ‘reverse’ strike-slip fault that causes compressions in the pipeline. This paper presents a refined analysis procedure for buried pipelines that is applicable to both strike-slip and reverse strikeslip faults after modifying some of the assumptions used previously. Based on the analytical results, this paper also discusses the design criteria for buried pipelines which are subjected to various fault movements. Parametric responses of buried pipeline for various fault movements, angles of crossing, buried depths and pipe diameters are presented.     

The behavior of magneto-acoustic-gravity waves near the cusp resonance in a lossless,compressible, isothermal,stratified, electrically conducting and uniformly magnetized atmosphere. II: The valve effect

Abstract

In the present paper the behavior of (internal) magneto-acoustic-gravity waves near the cusp resonance in a lossless, compressible, isothermal, stratified, electrically conducting atmosphere that is permeated by a uniform, nearly horizontal magnetic field is re-addressed (Kamp, 1989). The previously analyzed linear conversion of long acoustic-gravity waves into short magneto-acoustic waves that carry off the energy from the resonance region along the magnetic field, is re-analyzed with boundary layer techniques that are based on the smallness of the vertical component of the magnetic field. More specifically the existence of the so-called valve effect for the generated magneto-acoustic mode near the critical level is explicitly demonstrated and shown to be governed by two rivalling effects.     

The solar activity and the summer rainfall in the mediterranean

Summary This study deals with the influence of sunspots on the summer rainfall of 30 selected Stations of the Mediterranean, having records covering at least 4 cycles of sunspots. — It was found that the minimum of summer rainfall occurs near the maximum of sunspots and the maximum of rainfall in the beginning or at the end of sunspots cycle. — The variation of summer rainfall during the sunspots cycle presents four typesA: simple oscillation,B andC: double oscillation andD: triple oscillation.

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Résumé Cette étude s'occupe de l'influence des taches solaires sur la pluie estivale des 30 Stations de la Mediterranée, choisies parmi celles qui couvrent au moins 4 cycles des taches solaires. — On a trouvé que le minimum des pluies estivales a lieu près du maximum des taches solaires et que le maximum des pluies aussi a lieu au commencement ou à la fin du cycle de l'activité solaire. — La variation de la pluie durant le cercle des taches solaires presente 4 typesA: une oscillation simple,B etC une oscillation double etD une oscillation triple.

     

Late Quaternary stratigraphy and sedimentology of the inner part of southwest Joseph Bonaparte Gulf

Joseph Bonaparte Gulf is a large embayment on the northwestern continental margin of Australia. It is approximately 300 km east‐west and 120 km north‐south with a broad continental shelf to seaward. Maximum width from the southernmost shore of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf to the edge of the continental shelf is 560 km. Several large rivers enter the gulf along its shores. The climate is monsoonal, sub‐humid, and cyclone‐prone during the December‐March wet season. A bedrock high (Sahul Rise) rims the shelf margin. The sediments within the gulf are carbonates to seaward, grading into clastics inshore. A seaward‐thinning wedge of highstand muds dominates the sediments of the inner shelf of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. Mud banks up to 15m thick have developed inshore. Coarse‐grained sand ridges up to 15 m high are found off the mouth of the Ord River. These overlie an Upper Pleistocene transgressive lag of mixed carbonate and gravelly siliciclastic sand. Four drowned strandlines are present on the inner shelf at depths of 20, 25, 28 and 30 m below datum. These are interpreted as having formed during stillstands in the Late Pleistocene transgression. Older strandlines at great depths are inferred as having formed during the fall in sea‐level following the last highstand. For the most part the Upper Pleistocene‐Holocene marine sediments overlie an erosion surface cut into older Pleistocene sediments. Incised valleys cut into this erosion surface are up to 5 km wide and have a relief of at least 20 m. The largest valley is that cut by the Ord River. Upper Pleistocene sediments deposited in the incised valleys include interpreted lowstand fluvial gravels, early transgressive channel sands and floodplain silts, and late transgressive estuarine sands and gravels. Older Pleistocene sediments are inferred to have been deposited before and during the 120 ka highstand (isotope stage 5). They consist of sandy calcarenites deposited in high‐energy tide‐dominated shelf environments. Still older shelf and valley‐fill sediments underlie these. The contrast between the Holocene muddy clastic sediments and the sandy carbonates deposited by the 120 ka highstand suggests that either the climate was more arid in the past, with less fluvial transport, or that mud was more effectively trapped in estuaries, allowing development of carbonate depositional environments inshore.     

Long edge waves over a continental shelf

Summary The existence of long edge waves over a continental shelf is examined for a representative collection of shelf profiles. The frequencies of both trapped and leaky modes are found, when they exist, in terms of the shelf parameters. Certain theoretical trapped waves over a semi-infinite shelf are shown not to exist in the real ocean.A typical shelf profile on the east coast of Australia is modelled in four different ways from the above collection. The amplification of the leaky mode at the shoreline is found in terms of frequency for each model. Comparison of the results illustrates the severe errors introduced by crude approximations to the profile both at the shoreline and at the shelf cut-off region.

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Lange Randwellen über einem Festlandsockel

Zusammenfassung Die Existenz von langen Randwellen über einem Festlandsockel wird untersucht für eine repräsentative Sammlung von Schelfprofilen. Die Frequenzen sowohl der trapped (geführten) als auch der leaky (energieoder impulsabgebenden) Eigenfunktionsformen werden — wenn sie existieren — ermittelt, ausgedrückt in Schelf-Parametern. Es wird gezeigt, daß gewisse, trapped waves (geführte Wellen) über einem semi-unendlichen Schelf im wirklichen Ozean nicht existieren.Mit Hilfe der obigen Sammlung hat man ein typisches Schelfprofil von der Ostküste Australiens in vier verschiedenen Arten modelliert. Die Verstärkung des leaky mode an der Küstenlinie wird für jedes Modell gefunden in Termen der Frequenz. Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse verdeutlicht die schweren Fehler, die durch grobe Näherungen an das Profil entstehen, sowohl an der Küstenlinie als auch in dem Gebiet des Übergangs vom Schelf in die Tiefsee.

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Ondes transversales à longues crêtes au-dessus d'un plateua continental

Résumé On examine l'existence d'ondes transversales à longues crêtes au-dessus d'un plateau continental, afin de constituer une collection représentative des profils du plateau. On a trouvé les fréquences du «trapped mode» (mode captif) et du «leaky mode» (mode de transfert d'énergie et du moment) — quand ils existent — et cela en fonction des paramètres du plateau. On montre qu'il n'y a pas, dans l'océan réel, certaines ondes captées théoriques qui existeraient au-dessus d'un plateau semi-infini.Grâce à la collection dont il est parlé ci-dessus, on a modelé de quatre façons différentes un profil typique de la côte Est de l'Australie. Pour chaque modèle on a trouvé l'amplification du «leaky mode» sur la ligne de côte en fonction de la fréquence. La comparaison des résultats montre les erreurs importantes introduites par des approximations sommaires du profil, à la fois près de la ligne de côte et dans la région de transition du plateau continental en mer abyssale.

     

Application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale,landslide sediment yield model to the Llobregat basin,Spanish Pyrenees

The first application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale, landslide erosion and sediment yield model is carried out for a major landsliding event in the upper 505 km² of the Llobregat basin, in the eastern Spanish Pyrenees, in November 1982. The model simulates the spatial distribution of shallow landslides and their sediment yield. Acknowledging uncertainty in the model parameter evaluation, the aim of the application was not to reproduce the observed occurrence of landslides as accurately as possible with one simulation, but to bracket the observed pattern with several simulations representing uncertainty in the key input conditions. Bounds on the landslide simulations were thus determined as a function of uncertainty in the vegetation root cohesion (used in the model factor of safety calculations). The resulting upper bound considerably overestimates the observed pattern (17 000 landslides compared with an observation of around 700), but it reproduces several of the principal clusters in the observed pattern. The lower bound contains around 500 landslides. The sediment yield estimates (2670–14 630 t km^?2) are comparable to measurements elsewhere in the Pyrenees for extreme events. The results demonstrate an ability to simulate the basin‐scale landslide response to a rainfall event and the resulting sediment yield. They also highlight the need for further research in setting the uncertainty bounds and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence arising in part from a current inability to model small‐scale controls for a basin of the given size. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.