青藏高原东边缘山区极值风速推算方法的研究

利用1971—2001年青藏高原东边缘地区12个气象台站风资料,分析了影响极值风速的主要因子,通过对地形的参数化处理,建立了极值风速随海拔高度和地形参数变化的拟合模型,可推算该地山区的极值风速,并利用山区临时观测资料对拟合模型进行了检验。结果表明,利用引入地形参数所建立的极值风速拟合模型来推算山区极值风速具有一定的可行性。     

断层气CO2测定新方法与张北—尚义6.2级地震预报

简要介绍了断层气ＣＯ２快速测定法的特点,分析了近７年来在怀来后赤窑断层气ＣＯ２观测点测得的９个４级以上地震的ＣＯ２前兆异常特征。张北－尚义地震前４７天,断层气ＣＯ２出现突升异常,异常峰值是背景值的１０倍左右,据此在震前１２天对这次地震提出了较好的短临预报意见。     

关于波浪作用下粉土质海床中共振现象的解释

本文详细讨论了粉土质床在波浪作用下所呈现共振现象的力学机制。利用有限深海床下波浪载荷对土层响应的研究，系统地比较了理论计算结果和实验结果。提出在波浪作用下粉土质土层中存在着一硬土层，从而引发Ｂｒａｇｇ共振。     

The mesoscale convection life cycle: Building block or prototype for large-scale tropical waves?

A cumulonimbus cloud may ascend and spawn its anvil cloud, precipitation, and downdrafts within an hour or so. This paper inquires why a similar progression of events (life cycle) is observed for tropical weather fluctuations with time scales of hours, days, and even weeks. Regressions using point data illustrate the characteristic unit of rain production: the mesoscale convective system (MCS), covering tens of kilometers and lasting several hours, with embedded convective rain cells. Meanwhile, averages over larger spatial areas indicate a self-similar progression from shallow to deep convection to stratiform anvils on many time scales.Synthetic data exercises indicate that simple superpositions of fixed-structure MCS life cycles (the Building Block hypothesis) cannot explain why longer period life cycles are similar. Rather, it appears that an MCS may be a small analogue or prototype of larger scale waves. Multiscale structure is hypothesized to occur via a Stretched Building Block conceptual model, in which the widths (durations) of zones of shallow, deep, and stratiform anvil clouds in MCSs are modulated by larger scale waves.Temperature (T) and humidity (q) data are examined and fed into an entraining plume model, in an attempt to elucidate their relative roles in these large-scale convection zone variations. T profile variations, with wavelengths shorter than troposphere depth, appear important for high-frequency ( 2–5-day period) convectively coupled waves, as density directly links convection (via buoyancy) and large-scale wave dynamics (via restoring force). Still, the associated q anomalies are several times greater than adiabatic, suggesting a strong amplification by shallow convective feedbacks. For lower frequency (intraseasonal) variability, q anomalies are considerably larger compared to T, and may be dominant.     

西北地区春季云系的垂直结构特征飞机观测统计分析

根据2001年5—6月8架次的飞机探测资料,配合地面观测和卫星资料综合分析得出了西北地区春季云系的垂直结构宏微观特征,包括云厚、云底高度、云粒子浓度、含水量、有效半径、粒子谱分布函数等。降水性层状云厚平均约2000 m,低云含水量垂直方向上平均为0.07 g·m~(-3),中云含水量垂直方向上平均为0.03 g·m~(-3)。对比分析降水云和非降水云系的微物理特征量,两者存在显著的差异,降水性层状云有效半径要达到10～16μm。     

台风路径及频次与陕西关中秋淋天气相关分析

统计分析了1961～2003年西太平洋125°E以西的台风活动与陕西关中秋淋天气的关系。结果表明在秋淋偏多年份,同期台风路径以西行为主,秋季降水偏少年份,台风路径以北上、回转居多。     

城市蓝天指数预报研究

1引言随着中国经济的迅速发展和城市化进程的不断加快,人类活动对自然环境造成巨大的影响,而日益恶化的自然环境也在进一步威胁着人类的生存[1]。近几年雾和霾频发,蓝天越来越稀少,百姓对蓝天的关注度越来越高,蓝天指数预报正是在这样的背景下提出来的,它是根据气象条件的一个综合表述。     

利用地震噪声准实时监测短周期面波波速变化

依据由噪声信号提取面波格林函数的原理,利用福建省地震台网25个宽频带台站2007年7月2日—8月29日的脉动观测资料,得到了瑞雷波群速度在福建地区的分布,并将该结果作为下一步相对变化动态成像的背景速度分布．分布结果表明,福建地区周期为3—5s的瑞雷波群速度大致在2.9—3.1km/s之间,平均速度为3.0km/s,瑞雷波群速度分布呈北高南低的现象,这与福建地区北部多山、南部多平原盆地的地理环境有很好的吻合．而且,该群速度分布图在漳州盆地地区表现出一个非常明显的低速,这主要是因为受到盆地沉积层的影响．通过滑动窗（窗长为20d,步长1d）技术得到了观测区内周期约为3-5s的瑞雷波波速分布变化的连续图像;再利用扣除背景影响的技术,得到了2007年8月14日—2008年7月1日福建地区瑞雷波波速的相对变化时空动态图像．通过分析相对变化时空动态图像与该时间范围内发生的地震的对应关系,表明福建地区瑞雷波波速在多次网内中等强度的地震或震群（ML＞3.0）中均表现出震前波速升高,震后下降恢复的变化趋势．初步分析认为,这可能与震前整个地区受到的应力增大震后应力得到释放所导致的介质变化有关．      

Fault Systems and their Control of Deep Gas Accumulations in Xujiaweizi Area

A study of faults and their control of deep gas accumulations has been made on the basis of dividing fault systems in the Xujiaweizi area. The study indicates two sets of fault systems are developed vertically in the Xujiaweizi area, including a lower fault system and an upper fault system. Formed in the period of the Huoshiling Formation to Yingcheng Formation, the lower fault system consists of five fault systems including Xuxi strike-slip extensional fault system, NE-trending extensional fault system, near-EW-trending regulating fault system, Xuzhong strike-slip fault system and Xudong strike-slip fault system. Formed in the period of Qingshankou Formation to Yaojia Formation, the upper fault system was affected mainly by the boundary conditions of the lower fault system, and thus plenty of multi-directionally distributed dense fault zones were formed in the T2 reflection horizon. The Xuxi fault controlled the formation and distribution of Shahezi coal-measure source rocks, and Xuzhong and Xudong faults controlled the formation and distribution of volcanic reservoirs of Y1 Member and Y3 Member, respectively. In the forming period of the upper fault system, the Xuzhong fault was of successive strong activities and directly connected gas source rock reservoirs and volcanic reservoirs, so it is a strongly-charged direct gas source fault. The volcanic reservoir development zones of good physical properties that may be found near the Xuzhong fault are the favorable target zones for the next exploration of deep gas accumulations in Xujiaweizi area.     

鄂西北构家河金矿床成矿流体特征

构家河金矿床位于南秦岭武当山西缘,产于绢云绿泥石英片岩和变石英砂岩之中,受韧性滑脱剪切构造带控制。矿化类型主要有破碎带蚀变岩型和石英脉型,其中前者形成了破碎带蚀变岩型主矿体,呈似层状或透镜状分布于近南北向断裂中,次矿体分布在北西和北东向次级断裂中,为石英脉型矿体。成矿作用包括3个阶段:石英-硫化物阶段、石英-硫化物-金银矿化阶段和石英-碳酸盐阶段。对主矿体石英-硫化物-金银矿化阶段和石英-碳酸盐阶段的流体包裹体进行了显微观察和测温,同时对不同阶段的石英和方解石、白云石等进行了D、O、C同位素测试。结果显示,包裹体以原生气液两相包裹体为主,且主要为富液相包裹体;石英-硫化物-金银矿化阶段包裹体均一温度集中于180~270℃,峰值为220℃,盐度和密度分别为1.40%~14.46%和0.60~0.97g/cm~3;石英-碳酸盐阶段均一温度峰值为170℃,盐度和密度分别为1.34%~7.31%和0.86~0.96g/cm~3;石英-硫化物-金银矿化阶段和石英-碳酸盐阶段石英的δD_(v-SMOW)值分别为-93.3%~70.9‰和-91.6%‰~-67.2‰,δ~(18)O_(v-SMOW)值为12.9‰~14.5‰和11.9‰~13.8‰;方解石和白云石的δ~(13)C_(V.PDB)值为-12.4‰~-12.0‰,δ~(18)O_(v-PDB)值为-18.4‰~-18.1‰。成矿流体特征显示该矿床初始成矿流体为中温、低盐度的变质热液,再结合区域成矿地质与成矿构造背景,认为构家河金矿为造山型金矿床。