Shifting dynamics of nature,society and agriculture in the Hindu Kush Himalayas: Perspectives for future mountain development

Current approaches for sustainable mountain development have several persisting warning signals. Economic globalization, profitoriented market development, and infrastructure development have significantly altered traditional nature-society interactions, increased environmental pressures, and challenged agricultural sustainability in the mountains. Some of the effects of globalization could also be beneficial. Social differentiation and disintegration of mountain communities' have weakened their collective stakes on natural resources resulting in decline in initiatives such as community forestry, collective water management, domestication of rapidly disappearing herbal species, and balancing of economic and ecological concerns. Population growth, food insecurity, unemployment, and increasing economic gaps between rich and poor have led to out-migration of youth. Sustained action promoting ownership of new initiatives for rehabilitating degraded mountain landscapes through macro-level global/national initiatives, mountain specific planning and development efforts is severely lacking in many areas on the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Therefore, there is an urgent need for widening the scope of efforts directed to help mountain areas and communities, and a future thinking approach to enhance the sustainability of mountain areas as they are a valuable natural resource for humankind. This paper discusses the issues, opportunities, and provides suggestions for the future of mountain development.     

Climate projections over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

Following the CORDEX experimental protocol, climate simulations and climate-change projections for Africa were made with the new fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). The model was driven by two Global Climate Models (GCMs), one developed by the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie and the other by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, for the period 1950–2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The performance of the CRCM5 simulations for current climate is discussed first and compared also with a reanalysis-driven CRCM5 simulation. It is shown that errors in lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperature from the GCMs have deleterious consequences on the skill of the CRCM5 at reproducing specific regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon and the annual cycle of precipitation. For other aspects of the African climate however the regional model is able to add value compared to the simulations of the driving GCMs. Climate-change projections for periods until the end of this century are also analysed. All models project a warming throughout the twenty-first century, although the details of the climate changes differ notably between model projections, especially for precipitation changes. It is shown that the climate changes projected by CRCM5 often differ noticeably from those of the driving GCMs.     

Deforestation Trends and Spatial Modelling of its Drivers in the Dry Temperate Forests of Northern Pakistan–A Case Study of Chitral

Deforestation is a major environmental challenge in the mountain areas of Pakistan. The study assessed trends in the forest cover in Chitral tehsil over the last two decades using supervised land cover classification of Landsat TM satellite images from 1992, 2000, and 2009, with a maximum likelihood algorithm. In 2009, the forest cover was 10.3% of the land area of Chitral(60,000 ha). The deforestation rate increased from 0.14% per annum in 1992–2000 to 0.54% per annum in 2000–2009, with 3,759 ha forest lost over the 17 years. The spatial drivers of deforestation were investigated using a cellular automaton modelling technique to project future forest conditions. Accessibility(elevation, slope), population density, distance to settlements, and distance to administrative boundary were strongly associated with neighbourhood deforestation. A model projection showed a further loss of 23% of existing forest in Chitral tehsil by 2030, and degradation of 8%, if deforestation continues at the present rate. Arandu Union Council, with 2212 households, will lose 85% of its forest. Local communities have limited income resources and high poverty and are heavily dependent on non-timber forest products for their livelihoods. Continued deforestation will further worsen their livelihood conditions, thus improved conservation efforts are essential.     

The impact of lateral boundary data errors on the simulated climate of a nested regional climate model

In this study, we investigate the response of a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to errors in the atmospheric data used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) using a perfect-model framework nick-named the “Big-Brother Experiment” (BBE). The BBE has been designed to evaluate the errors due to the nesting process excluding other model errors. First, a high-resolution (45 km) RCM simulation is made over a large domain. This simulation, called the Perfect Big Brother (PBB), is driven by the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses; it serves as reference virtual-reality climate to which other RCM runs will be compared. Next, errors of adjustable magnitude are introduced by performing RCM simulations with increasingly larger domains at lower horizontal resolution (90 km mesh). Such simulations with errors typical of today’s Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM) are called the Imperfect Big-Brother (IBB) simulations. After removing small scales in order to achieve low-resolution typical of today’s CGCMs, they are used as LBCs for driving smaller domain high-resolution RCM runs; these small-domain high-resolution simulations are called Little-Brother (LB) simulations. The difference between the climate statistics of the IBB and those of PBB simulations mimic errors of the driving model. The comparison of climate statistics of the LB to those of the PBB provides an estimate of the errors resulting solely from nesting with imperfect LBCs. The simulations are performed over the East Coast of North America using the Canadian RCM, for five consecutive February months (from 1990 to 1994). It is found that the errors contained in the large scales of the IBB driving data are transmitted to and reproduced with little changes by the LB. In general, the LB restores a great part of the IBB small-scale errors, even if they do not take part in the nesting process. The small scales are seen to improve slightly in regions with important orographic forcing due to the finer resolution of the RCM. However, when the large scales of the driving model have errors, the small scales developed by the LB have errors as well, suggesting that the large scales precondition the small scales. In order to obtain correct small scales, it is necessary to provide the accurate large-scale circulation at the lateral boundary of the RCM.     

The potential contribution of wildlife sanctuary to forest conservation: A case study from binsar wildlife sanctuary

Forest vegetation of a protected area(Binsar Wildlife Sanctuary) in Kumaun region(west Himalaya) was analysed for structure,composition and representativeness across three different altitudinal belts,lower(1,600-1,800 m a.s.l.),middle(1,900-2,100 m a.s.l.) and upper(2,200-2,400 m a.s.l.) during 2009-2011 using standard phytosociological methods.Four aspects(east,west,north and south) in each altitudinal belt were chosen for sampling to depict maximum representation of vegetation in the sanctuary.Population structure and regeneration behaviour was analysed seasonally for two years to show the establishment and growth of tree species.A total of 147 plant species were recorded from the entire region of which 27 tree species were selected for detailed study.Highest number was recorded at upper(18 species),and lowest at lower altitudinal belt(15 species).The relative proportion of species richness showed higher contribution of tree layer at each altitudinal belt.The population structure,based on the number of individuals,revealed a greater proportion of seedling layer at each altitudinal belt.The relative proportion of seedlings increases significantly along altitudinal belts(p<0.05) while opposite trends were observed in sapling and tree layers.The density of sapling and seedling species varied non-significantly across seasons(p>0.05).The density values decreased in summer and increased during rainy season.As far as the regeneration status is concerned,middle and upper altitudinal belts showed maximum number of species with fair regeneration as compared to lower altitudinal belt.Overall density diameter distribution of tree species showed highest species density and richness in the smallest girth class and decreased in the succeeding girth classes.This study suggests that patterns of regeneration behaviour would determine future structural and compositional changes in the forest communities.It is suggested that the compositional changes vis-à-vis role of ‘New’ and ‘Not regenerating’ species need priority attention while initiating conservation activities in the sanctuary.This study calls for exploring other less explored Wildlife Sanctuaries in the Himalaya and across the world,to achieve overall biodiversity status in these protected areas and thus to justify their role in conserving biodiversity in the region.     

A hydrogeochemical approach to evaluate the occurrence and source of salinization in the shallow aquifers of the southeastern Imphal valley in the Indo-Myanmar range of Northeast India

The Imphal valley is an intramontane basin confined within an anticlinorium of several anticlines and synclines in the Disang Group of rocks of Tertiary age. This valley of more than 2 million people is occupied by fluvio-lacustrine deposits of Quaternary age and is located in the central part of the Indo-Myanmar range of Northeast India. The hydrogeochemical parameters of temperature, pH, ORP, TDS, Na, Cl, Br, Ba, B, Sr, Li, δ¹⁸O, HCO₃, K, Mg, Ca, NO₃, PO₄, SO₄ in 173 samples using ion-chromatograph, ICP (AES), ICP (OES), ICP (MS) and 37 dugwells were studied to understand the occurrence and origin of salinization process for the first time. The order of abundance of ions is identified as HCO₃ > Na > Cl > Ca > Mg > K > NO₃ > PO₄ > Sr > Br > B>Ba > Li > SO₄. Five hydrochemical facies (Na–Cl, Ca–Mg–HCO₃, Na–HCO₃, Ca–Mg–HCO₃–Cl and Ca–Mg–Cl) represent the types of waters. The saline-dominated water types (Na–Cl and Na–HCO₃) represent piedmont and the rest of the facies represent alluvial plain and flood plain groundwaters. Durov’s diagram reveales initial and intermediate stages of groundwater evolution. Isotope δ¹⁸O, Gibbs diagram and ions scatter plots suggest evaporation and crystallization processes leading to halite encrustation in the Disang shales. Negative Eh, low NO₃ and the absence of SO₄ indicates reduced condition coupled with rich dissolve organic matters leading to elevation of salts in soils around piedmont where the rock type is exclusively of the Disang shales. Trilinear plot, correlation matrix and water table flow analysis suggest salinization of groundwater originates in piedmont groundwater and disseminates towards alluvial plain and flood plain along the flow path.     

Impact of interactive vegetation phenology on the Canadian RCM simulated climate over North America

Climate Dynamics - Biosphere–atmosphere interactions play a very important role in modulating regional climate. To capture these bi-directional interactions, a dynamic vegetation model, the...     

Geo-ontology Tools: The Missing Link

Numerous authors have presented ontology building tools that have all been developed as part of academic projects and that are usually adaptations of more generic tools for geo-spatial applications. While we trust that these tools do their job for the special purpose they have been built, the GIScience user community is still a long way away from off-the-shelf ontology builders that can be used by GIS project managers. In this article, we present a comparative study of ontology building tools described in some twenty peer-reviewed GIScience journal articles. We analyze them from the perspective of two application domains, crime analysis and transportation/land use. For the latter, we developed a database schema, which is substantially different from the three main templates commonly used. The crime analysis application uses a rule base for an agent-based model that had no precursor. In both cases, the currently available set of tools cannot replace manual coding of ontologies for use with ESRI-based application software. Based on these experiences, we outline a requirements list of what the tools described in the first part of the article are missing to make them practical from an applications perspective. The result is an R&D agenda for this important aspect of GIScience.