Structure and Evolution of Supergranulation from Local Helioseismology

Supergranulation is visible at the solar surface as a cellular pattern of horizontal outflows. Although it does not show a distinct intensity pattern, it manifests itself indirectly in, for example, the chromospheric network. Previous studies have reported significant differences in the inferred basic parameters of the supergranulation phenomenon. Here we study the structure and temporal evolution of a large sample of supergranules, measured by using local helioseismology and SOHO/MDI data from the year 2000 at solar activity minimum. Local helioseismology with f modes provides maps of the horizontal divergence of the flow velocity at a depth of about 1 Mm. From these divergence maps supergranular cells were identified by using Fourier segmentation procedures in two dimensions and in three dimensions (two spatial dimensions plus time). The maps that we analyzed contain more than 10⁵ supergranular cells and more than 10³ lifetime histories, which makes possible a detailed analysis with high statistical significance. We find that the supergranular cells have a mean diameter of 27.1 Mm. The mean lifetime is estimated to be 1.6 days from the measured distribution of lifetimes (three-dimensional segmentation), with a clear tendency for larger cells to live longer than smaller ones. The pair and mark correlation functions do not show pronounced features on scales larger than the typical cell size, which suggests purely random cell positions. The temporal histories of supergranular cells indicate a smooth evolution from their emergence and growth in the first half of their lives to their decay in the second half of their lives (unlike exploding granules, which reach their maximum size just before they fragment).     

Qualitative and Quantitative Description of Multibeam Echosounder Systematic Errors on Rocky Areas

This paper deals with the problem of systematic depth errors made in surveying dumped rocks with multibeam echosounder. These errors may induce dangers for navigation in very shallow water areas or huge costs for coastal engineering contractors who perform rock dumping operation and surveying. We analyze results from four different multibeam echosounder systems and compare those data to a reference digital terrain model of a dumped rocks area obtained from a 3D terrestrial laser scanner. The systematic depth errors are statistically described and analysed on local areas. Finally, we propose a look-up table linking the error amplitude with the rock size, resulting from our error analysis.     

An estimate of the influence of loading effects on tectonic velocities in the Pyrenees

Surface displacements due to temporal changes in environmental mass redistributions are observable in the coordinate time series of many Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites. In this study, we investigated the effect of loading on estimates of tectonic velocity computed from campaign-style GNSS observations. The study region is in the Pyrenees mountain range between France and Spain (ResPyr campaigns). In this area, seismic activity is continuous and moderate and the expected amplitude of the horizontal tectonic velocity is less than 0.5 mm/yr. In order to determine the velocity, 4 sparse GNSS campaigns were carried out from 1995 to 2010. Considering this small rate of deformation, loading phenomena can contribute a non-negligible artifact to the velocity computation that could affect our geodynamical interpretation. In this investigation, we specifically considered the atmospheric, hydrological, and non-tidal ocean loading phenomena. The computed loading deformations for this region show the horizontal displacements are dominated by the non-tidal ocean loading (maximum 4 mm for the North and 3.1 mm for the East components); the main vertical contributions are due to the atmospheric and continental water storage loading (maximum 14.3 for the atmosphere and 8.1 mm for the hydrology, respectively). We have found that the dominant loading effect on the horizontal velocity is the non-tidal ocean loading (mean of 0.11 mm/yr), whereas the vertical component is dominated by the hydrological loading (mean of 0.21 mm/yr). Since the study area is in a mountainous region, we also analyzed the difference between the atmospheric and the topography dependent atmospheric loading models at our GNSS campaign sites. We did not find any significant difference between the two atmospheric loading models in terms of horizontal velocity. Finally, we performed simulations to identify the optimum timing and frequency of future GNSS campaigns in this area that would minimize the loading effects on tectonic velocity estimates.     

Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data

West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections.     

Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region,France

Abstract

Radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were assessed using reference values established by means of a geostatistical approach. The reference values were estimated from raingauge data using the block kriging technique, and the reference meshes were selected on the basis of the kriging estimation variance. Agreement between radar QPEs and reference rain amounts was shown to increase slightly with the space–time scales. The statistical distributions of the errors were modelled conditionally with respect to several factors using the GAMLSS approach. The conditional bias of the errors presents a complex structure that depends on the space–time scales and the considered geographical sub-domains, while the standard deviation of the errors has a more homogeneous behaviour. The estimation standard deviation of the reference rainfall and the standard deviation of the errors between radar and reference rainfall were found to have the same magnitude, indicating the limitations of the available network in terms of providing accurate reference values for the spatial scales considered (5–100 km²).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., and Boudevillain, B., 2013. Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1300–1311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337     

Impact of the Indian part of the summer MJO on West Africa using nudged climate simulations

Observational evidence suggests a link between the summer Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and anomalous convection over West Africa. This link is further studied with the help of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model. The approach is based on nudging the model towards the reanalysis in the Asian monsoon region. The simulation successfully captures the convection associated with the summer MJO in the nudging region. Outside this region the model is free to evolve. Over West Africa it simulates convection anomalies that are similar in magnitude, structure, and timing to the observed ones. In accordance with the observations, the simulation shows that 15–20?days after the maximum increase (decrease) of convection in the Indian Ocean there is a significant reduction (increase) in West African convection. The simulation strongly suggests that in addition to the eastward-moving MJO signal, the westward propagation of a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave is needed to explain the overall impact of the MJO on convection over West Africa. These results highlight the use of MJO events to potentially predict regional-scale anomalous convection and rainfall spells over West Africa with a time lag of approximately 15–20?days.     

Crystal clustering in magmas: Insights from HP–HT experiments

We have studied by high-resolution X-ray Computed Tomography the effect of crystal clustering on the Shape-Preferred Orientation (SPO) development in synthetic magmas experimentally deformed at 300 MPa and 475–550°C. A fully connected solid network that could potentially induce the onset of yield strength is not achieved in these suspensions containing 16 vol% of crystals. The alumina grain population exhibits a glomeroporphyritic texture made of isolated grains (59.6%) and clusters of touching grains (40.4%). The SPO of the sub-population of isolated grains exhibits foliation and lineation, which are closely parallel to the plane and direction of shear, respectively. The SPO of clustered grains has little influence overall shape fabric. The angular relationships between the average foliation and cluster elongation provide a good indicator of the shear sense. Finally, we highlight the strain partitioning between nearly non-deformed large clusters acting as rigid glomerocrysts and highly sheared zones in low concentrated suspensions.     

Thermo-hydro-mechanical simulation of ATLAS in situ large scale test in Boom Clay

Following the need for understanding and quantifying the effect of temperature on the response of a candidate host formation for radioactive waste disposal, finite element modelling of an in situ thermal experiment has been carried out. Based on a thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) finite element approach including a consistent thermo-plastic constitutive model, it has been possible to reproduce the THM response of a clay formation submitted to in situ thermal loading. The simulated large-scale experiment, called ATLAS was designed in the underground research facility (HADES-URF) in Mol, Belgium. After an extensive literature analysis on the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical characteristics of Boom Clay, laboratory tests were simulated to calibrate model parameters. The results of the finite element modelling of the ATLAS experiment were compared with in situ measurements and revealed the necessity to account for flow diffusion in all three directions through a 2D axisymmetric analysis. Finally, those results were interpreted in the light of elasto-thermoplasticity, which emphasizes the significant role of thermo-plastic processes in the global THM response of the clay formation.