Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Geochemical comparison between minettes and kersantites from the Western European Hercynian orogen: trace element and PbSrNd isotope constraints on their origin

Trace element and isotopic characteristics of late Carboniferous to early Permian minettes and kersantites have been determined. These lamprophyres have been sampled throughout the Western European Hercynian orogen, from Brittany to the west to Schwarzwald to the east. In spite of sharp petrological differences reflected by mineralogy and major element geochemistry, minettes and kersantites exhibit close identity with respect to trace element and isotopic features. These features comprise enrichment in incompatible elements, highCs/Rb and lowCe/Pb ratios, Ta and Ti relative depletion, high abundance in transition elements and highNi/Mg ratios. Pb isotope ratios are undistinguishable from those measured on Hercynian continental crust. Initial¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios are between0.5120 (ε_i −5) and0.5122 (ε_i −1) for minettes and kersantites whereas initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios vary between 0.7055–0.710 for minettes and 0.707–0.708 for kersantites. No simple mixing relations are visible on RbSr and SmNd isochron diagrams. The exceptional homogeneity of these geochemical characteristics along a 1000 km traverse does not allow for an hypothesis of enrichment through upper level assimilation and thus leads to propose that these rocks originated through melting of a mantle enriched by recycling of crustal material.     

Field test of the superconducting gravimeter as a hydrologic sensor

We report on a field test of a transportable version of a superconducting gravimeter (SG) intended for groundwater storage monitoring. The test was conducted over a 6-month period at a site adjacent to a well in the recharge zone of the karstic Edwards Aquifer, a major groundwater resource in central Texas. The purpose of the study was to assess requirements for unattended operation of the SG in a field setting and to obtain a gravimetric estimate of aquifer specific yield. The experiment confirmed successful operation of the SG, but water level changes were small (<0.3 m) leading to uncertainty in the estimate of specific yield. Barometric pressure changes were the dominant cause of both water level variations and non-tidal gravity changes. The specific yield estimate (0.26) is larger than most published values and dependent mainly on low frequency variations in residual gravity and water level time series.     

Calderas,landslides and paleo-canyons on Piton de la Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island,Indian Ocean)

Based upon a re-interpretation of previous data and a new field campaign, a structural evolution is proposed for the early history of Piton de la Fournaise volcano from 500,000 to 50,000 years. Conceptually, it is shown that the formation of a caldera in which lava flows are contained inside the caldera depression, gives time for erosion to excavate deep canyons on the external slopes of the volcano, for example, the Rivière des Remparts, the Rivière Langevin and the Rivière de l'Est canyons on Piton de la Fournaise volcano. These canyons are infilled when lavas, filling the caldera and overflowing its rim, are able again to flow on the external slopes of the volcano. In the past, this excavating/infilling process has occurred twice following the formation of the Rivière des Remparts and Morne Langevin calderas. The formation of the third caldera, the Plaine des Sables caldera, was followed by the excavation of the current canyons. In addition to this process, two large landslides have been documented in the field. The first, which happened about 300,000 years ago, is apparently the first episode of the break up of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, predating the formation of the four large calderas. The second landslide, which occurred 150,000 years ago and is considered to be less extensive, has carried away the entire southern flank of the Rivière des Remparts caldera.     

Uncertainties in European summer precipitation changes: role of large scale circulation

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks.     

The stratospheric version of LMDz: dynamical climatologies, arctic oscillation, and impact on the surface climate

A climatology of the stratosphere is determined from a 20-year integration with the stratospheric version of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model LMDz. The model has an upper boundary at near 65 km, uses a Doppler spread non-orographic gravity waves drag parameterization and a subgrid-scale orography parameterization. It also has a Rayleigh damping layer for resolved waves only (not the zonal mean flow) over the top 5 km. This paper describes the basic features of the model and some aspects of its radiative-dynamical climatology. Standard first order diagnostics are presented but some emphasis is given to the model’s ability to reproduce the low frequency variability of the stratosphere in the winter northern hemisphere. In this model, the stratospheric variability is dominated at each altitudes by patterns which have some similarities with the arctic oscillation (AO). For those patterns, the signal sometimes descends from the stratosphere to the troposphere. In an experiment where the parameterized orographic gravity waves that reach the stratosphere are exaggerated, the model stratosphere in the NH presents much less variability. Although the stratospheric variability is still dominated by patterns that resemble to the AO, the downward influence of the stratosphere along these patterns is near entirely lost. In the same time, the persistence of the surface AO decreases, which is consistent with the picture that this persistence is linked to the descent of the AO signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere. A comparison between the stratospheric version of the model, and its routinely used tropospheric version is also done. It shows that the introduction of the stratosphere in a model that already has a realistic AO persistence can lead to overestimate the actual influence of the stratospheric dynamics onto the surface AO. Although this result is certainly model dependent, it suggests that the introduction of the stratosphere in a GCM also call for a new adjustment of the model parameters that affect the tropospheric variability.     

Paleo-stress orientations from calcite twins in the North Pyrenean foreland, determined by the Etchecopar inverse method

During the last decade, it has been shown that accurate analyses of calcite twinning in thin section may allow computation of the paleo-deviatoric stress tensor associated with this deformation. Following from the work of Larroque and Laurent (1988), and Lacombe et al. (1989), this is a new application of the Etchecopar inverse method. Weakly deformed limestones from about 150 to 200 km north of the Pyrenean chain (South France) were studied. The Etchecopar inverse method, which can be used on a microcomputer, is comparable to the method of analysis of striated fault planes proposed by Etchecopar et al. in 1981, as it determines the principal stress orientations and the stress ellipsoid shape ratio φ = (σ₂ − σ₃)/(σ₁ − σ₃). The Etchecopar method using calcite twins has been selected for this study because it is suitable for the determination of polyphase deformation in coarse-grained limestones (Lacombe et al. 1989).

Ten samples of oolitic limestones, cemented with sparry calcite, from the Bajocian (170 Ma) and the Oligocene (30 Ma) were studied. For each of them, only one or two stress tensors were determined: the first is characterized by a principal compressive stress axis σ₁ which is horizontal and approximately N-S. Local departures from this orientation have been observed and are interpreted as local stress perturbations. For the second, which was defined in the Oligocene, but occurred only locally in the Jurassic limestones, the position of σ₁ is nearly vertical; the direction of extension σ₃ is either NE-SW or undefined into the horizontal plane (σ₂ = σ₃); this radial extension is interpreted as the result of two or more superposed extensive deformation phases with vertical σ₁. The N-S compression was never found in the Oligocene limestones, and from its orientation, it is assumed to correspond to the Pyrenean deformation. These results are compared to the more complex deformation pattern obtained from classical microtectonical studies (Arthaud and Choukroune, 1972; Bonijoly and Blès, 1983; Granier and Blès, 1988; Blès et al., 1989). Only the major tectonic events are recorded by calcite twinning. Finally, the suitability of calcite twin analyses for the determination of complex polyphase deformation is discussed.     

Direct dating of thick‐ and thin‐skin thrusts in the Peruvian Subandean zone through apatite (U–Th)/He and fission track thermochronometry

Although the structure of the central Peruvian Subandean zone is well defined, the timing of thrust‐related exhumation and Cenozoic sedimentation remain poorly constrained. In this study, we report new apatite (U–Th)/He (AHe) and fission track (AFT) ages from thrust‐belt and foreland strata along three published balanced cross sections. AHe data from the northern, thick‐skinned domain (i.e. Shira Mountain, Otishi Cordillera and Ucayali Basin) show young AHe ages (ranging from 2.6 ± 0.2 to 13.1 ± 0.8 Ma) compared with AFT ages (ranging from 101 ± 5 to 133 ± 11 Ma). In the southern Camisea Basin, where deformation is mainly thin‐skinned, AHe and AFT ages have been both reset and show young cooling ages (3.7 ± 0.8 Ma and 8 ± 2 Ma respectively). Using low‐temperature thermochronology data and the latest fission track annealing and He diffusion codes, the thermal history of the study area has been reconstructed using inverse modelling. This history includes two steps of erosion: Early Cretaceous and late Neogene, but only Neogene sedimentation and exhumation varies in the different sectors of the study area. From a methodological point of view, large AHe data dispersion point to the need for refinement of AHe damage and annealing models. The influence of grain chemistry on damage annealing, multiple age components and the possibility of fission tracks as traps for He need further consideration. For the central Peruvian Subandes, AHe and AFT ages combined with balanced cross sections emphasize the dominant control of Paleozoic inheritance rather than climate on Cenozoic infilling and exhumation histories. Finally, our data provide the first field example of how thick‐skinned thrust‐related deformation and exhumation in the Subandes can be directly dated through AHe thermochronology.     

A comparative allometric study of the morphometry of the gills of an alkalinity adapted cichlid fish,Oreochromis alcalicus grahami,of Lake Magadi,Kenya

A morphometric analysis of the gills ofOreochromis alcalicus grahami has been carried out on specimens from ecologically distinct lagoons and a water-holding tank of Lake Magadi, a highly alkaline salt lake situated in a volcanically active region of the southern part of the Great Rift Valley in Kenya. The data were compared with those fromOreochromis niloticus, a close relative that lives in fresh water and with data from other fresh water and marine fish. Our primary goal was to identify the possible adaptive features which enable the fish to survive in an environment characterized by severely fluctuating levels of oxygen, a condition exacerbated by factors such as high temperature, alkalinity and osmolarity. The specimens ofO. a. grahami from the south-western lagoons of the lake had gills better adapted for gas exchange with a body mass specific diffusing capacity for oxygen which was about 2 times greater than that of the gills of the specimens from the fish spring lagoons and 2.5 times that of those from the water-holding tanks. Some parameters of the gills ofO. a. grahami, e.g. the gill filament length and number of gill filaments are significantly greater than those ofO. niloticus but the number of secondary lamellae, area of secondary lamellae and the diffusing capacity of the gills are similar in the two species. Compared with most other fish, the gills ofO. a. grahami appear to be particularly well adapted for gas exchange especially by having a thin water-blood barrier. Perhaps in no other extant fish have the gills had to be so exquisitely designed to meet environmental extremes and regulate complex and at times conflicting functions such as gas exchange, iono-regulation, acid-base balance and nitrogenous waste excretion as inO. a. grahami