Disaster prevention,disaster preparedness and local community resilience within the context of disaster risk management in Cameroon

This paper presents a simulation of three components of near-field ground shaking recorded during the main shock at three stations of the September 16, 1978, Tabas (M _w = 7.4), Iran, earthquake, close to the causative fault. A hybrid method composed of a discrete wavenumber method developed by Bouchon (Bouchon in Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:959–971, 1981; Cotton and Coutant in Geophys J Int 128:676–688, 1997) and a stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005), modified by Assatourians and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:935–1949, 2007), is used for generating the seismograms at low (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz), respectively. The results are validated by comparing the simulated peak acceleration, peak velocity, peak displacement, Arias intensity, the integral of velocity squared, Fourier spectrum and acceleration response spectrum on a frequency-by-frequency basis, the shape of the normalized integrals of acceleration and velocity squared, and the cross-correlation with the observed time-series data. Each characteristic is compared on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 being perfect agreement. Also, the results are validated by comparing the simulated ground motions with the modified Mercalli intensity observations reported by reconnaissance teams and showed reasonable agreement. The results of the present study imply that the damage distribution pattern of the 1978 Tabas earthquake can be explained by the source directivity effect.     

Protracted,coeval crust and mantle melting during Variscan late-orogenic evolution: U–Pb dating in the eastern French Massif Central

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The late stages of the Variscan orogeny are characterized by middle to lower crustal melting and intrusion of voluminous granitoids throughout the belt,...     

Clam farmers and Oystercatchers: Effects of the degradation of Lanice conchilega beds by shellfish farming on the spatial distribution of shorebirds

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum cultivation is an original shellfish farming activity strongly mechanized. In the Chausey archipelago (France) this activity settles on the Lanice conchilega beds, habitat known to host a rich and diversified benthic macrofauna and which is an attractive feeding ground for birds. A first study highlighted that this activity had strong negative effects on the L. conchilega beds and their associated benthic macrofauna. Here we assess the impacts of such an activity on the Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus for which Chausey is one of the most important national breeding sites and which is also a common species in winter, spring and autumn migrations. We found that Oystercatchers significantly selected the L. conchilega beds to feed and that their spatial distribution was significantly modified after the creation of new clam concessions. In a context of a growing disappearance of pristine coastal ecosystems for the benefit of anthropo-ecosystems, we discuss the problem of the degradation of such benthic habitats with a low resilience which may loose their high functional value.     

Census and typology of braided rivers in the French Alps

Following the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the need to reach a “good ecological status” for rivers, key-questions are being raised about braided rivers. Before any environmental policy can be drawn up, these rivers need to be located, long term changes must be evaluated, and the regional diversity of such systems must be understood, as their inner complexity has not yet been well studied. Therefore, the aim of this work is to carry out a census of the braided channels of the French Alps and to establish a typology based on basic geomorphic indicators. A minimum estimate of the cumulative length of braided rivers prior to major infrastructure construction amounted to 1214 km. Around 53% of these rivers have disappeared during the last two centuries in relation to embankment or channelization, but a loss of 17% is still unexplained. The range in catchment size, mean slope and active channel width has been determined for the Western Alpine braided channels as well as the range in changes due to narrowing, widening and shifting. Seven types of braided rivers have been distinguished based on geographical settings (climate conditions and geology) and differences in terms of adjustment to human pressure on peak flow and sediment delivery. The percentage area of islands in the active channel and the relative length of banks also show a regional difference. Maximum and minimum thresholds of braided activity have been established taking into account the active channel width and the catchment area. The position of the studied reaches between these two thresholds are discussed in relation to position of rivers known in the literature, considering both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in channel width.     

High-resolution ensemble forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico eddies and fronts

High-resolution models and realistic boundary conditions are necessary to reproduce the mesoscale dynamics of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). In order to achieve this, we use a nested configuration of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), where the Atlantic TOPAZ system provides lateral boundary conditions to a high-resolution (5 km) model of the GOM . However, such models cannot provide accurate forecasts of mesoscale variability, such as eddy shedding event, without data assimilation. Eddy shedding events involve the rapid growth of nonlinear instabilities that are difficult to forecast. The known sources of error are the initial state, the atmospheric condition, and the lateral boundary condition. We present here the benefit of using a small ensemble forecast (10 members) for providing confidence indices for the prediction, while using a data assimilation scheme based on optimal interpolation. Our set of initial states is provided by using different values of a data assimilation parameter, while the atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed randomly. Changes in the data assimilation parameter appear to control the main position of the large features of the GOM in the initial state, whereas changes in the boundary conditions (lateral and atmospheric) appears to control the propagation of cyclonic eddies at their boundary. The ensemble forecast is tested for the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006). The Loop Current and eddy fronts observed from ocean color and altimetry are almost always within the estimated positions from the ensemble forecast. The ensemble spread is correlated both in space and time to the forecast error, which implies that confidence indices can be provided in addition to the forecast. Finally, the ensemble forecast permits the optimization of a data assimilation parameter for best performance at a given forecast horizon.     

Ionization of the earth’s atmosphere by solar and galactic cosmic rays

A brief review of the research of atmospheric effects of cosmic rays is presented. Numerical models are discussed, that are capable to compute the cosmic ray induced ionization at a given location and time. Intercomparison of the models, as well as comparison with fragmentary direct measurements of the atmospheric ionization, validates their applicability for the entire atmosphere and the whole range of the solar activity level variations. The effect of sporadic solar energetic particle events is shown to be limited on the global scale, even for the most severe event, but can be very strong locally in polar regions, affecting the physical-chemical properties of the upper atmosphere, especially at high altitudes. Thus, a new methodology is presented to study cosmic ray induced ionization of the atmosphere in full detail using realistic numerical models calibrated to direct observations.     

Late slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Inception: New constraints from sedimentary (231Pa/230Th)

Our study gives new constraints on the response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) export to various forcings during the Last Glacial Inception. The decay corrected excess sedimentary (²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th) activity ratio (hereafter referred to as (Pa/Th)) has been measured over that period in two deep cores from the Western (SU90-11, 44°04′N, 40°01′W, 3645 m) and Eastern (MD01-2446, 39°03′N, 12°37′W, 3547 m) basins of the North Atlantic. Both records display significant changes despite the relatively short half-life of ²³¹Pa (～ 32 kyr) compared to the period we investigate. The (Pa/Th) variability does not correlate to changes in local opal flux normalized to ²³⁰Th. Moreover, the (Pa/Th) profiles display a high degree of coherency with indirect proxies of AMOC activity such as the benthic foraminifera δ¹³C and the mid-latitude summer Sea Surface Temperature in nearby reference cores. These additional pieces of evidence support our interpretation of the (Pa/Th) as reflecting AMOC export. The (Pa/Th) repeatedly underwent rapid changes during the Last Glacial Inception associated with the extension of ice rafted detritus in the North Atlantic, highlighting the control of ice-sheet dynamics through freshwater forcing on AMOC export. AMOC export remains large during periods of ice-sheet growth and its decreases lag the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation forcing. AMOC modulation appears driven by ice-sheet dynamics, itself driven by the seasonal insolation gradient between low and high Northern Hemisphere latitudes and the associated intensity of the meridional oceanic and atmospheric circulation.     

Monitoring forest areas from continental to territorial levels using a sample of medium spatial resolution satellite imagery

A global systematic sampling scheme has been developed by the UN FAO and the EC TREES project to estimate rates of deforestation at global or continental levels at intervals of 5 to 10 years. This global scheme can be intensified to produce results at the national level. In this paper, using surrogate observations, we compare the deforestation estimates derived from these two levels of sampling intensities (one, the global, for the Brazilian Amazon the other, national, for French Guiana) to estimates derived from the official inventories. We also report the precisions that are achieved due to sampling errors and, in the case of French Guiana, compare such precision with the official inventory precision.We extract nine sample data sets from the official wall-to-wall deforestation map derived from satellite interpretations produced for the Brazilian Amazon for the year 2002 to 2003. This global sampling scheme estimate gives 2.81 million ha of deforestation (mean from nine simulated replicates) with a standard error of 0.10 million ha. This compares with the full population estimate from the wall-to-wall interpretations of 2.73 million ha deforested, which is within one standard error of our sampling test estimate. The relative difference between the mean estimate from sampling approach and the full population estimate is 3.1%, and the standard error represents 4.0% of the full population estimate.This global sampling is then intensified to a territorial level with a case study over French Guiana to estimate deforestation between the years 1990 and 2006. For the historical reference period, 1990, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data were used. A coverage of SPOT-HRV imagery at 20 m × 20 m resolution acquired at the Cayenne receiving station in French Guiana was used for year 2006.Our estimates from the intensified global sampling scheme over French Guiana are compared with those produced by the national authority to report on deforestation rates under the Kyoto protocol rules for its overseas department. The latter estimates come from a sample of nearly 17,000 plots analyzed from same spatial imagery acquired between year 1990 and year 2006. This sampling scheme is derived from the traditional forest inventory methods carried out by IFN (Inventaire Forestier National). Our intensified global sampling scheme leads to an estimate of 96,650 ha deforested between 1990 and 2006, which is within the 95% confidence interval of the IFN sampling scheme, which gives an estimate of 91,722 ha, representing a relative difference from the IFN of 5.4%.These results demonstrate that the intensification of the global sampling scheme can provide forest area change estimates close to those achieved by official forest inventories (<6%), with precisions of between 4% and 7%, although we only estimate errors from sampling, not from the use of surrogate data.Such methods could be used by developing countries to demonstrate that they are fulfilling requirements for reducing emissions from deforestation in the framework of an REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) mechanism under discussion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Monitoring systems at national levels in tropical countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems.     

Unravelling the morphogenesis of coastal terraces at Cape Laundi (Sumba Island,Indonesia): Insights from numerical models

The morphology of coastal sequences provides fundamental observations to unravel past sea level (SL) variations. For that purpose, converting morphometric observations into a SL datum requires understanding their morphogenesis. The long-lasting sequence of coral reef terraces (CRTs) at Cape Laundi (Sumba Island, Indonesia) could serve as a benchmark. Yet, it epitomizes a pitfall that challenges the ultimate goal: the overall chronology of its development remains poorly constrained. The polycyclic nature of the terraces, involving marine erosion and reoccupation of old coral colonies by more recent ones hinders any clear assignment of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) to specific terraces, in particular the reference datum corresponding to the last Interglacial maximum (i.e., MIS 5e). Thus, to overcome these obstacles, we numerically model the genesis of the sequence, testing a range of eustatic SL (ESL) reconstructions and uplift rates, as well as exploring the parameter space to address reef growth, erosion and sedimentation. A total of 625 model runs allowed us to improve the morpho-chronological constraints of the coastal sequence and, more particularly, to explain the morphogenesis of the several CRTs associated with MIS 5e. Our results suggest that the lowermost main terrace was first constructed during the marine transgression of MIS 5e and was later reshaped during the marine regression of MIS 5e, as well as during the MIS 5c and MIS 5a highstands. Finally, we discuss the general morphology of the sequence and the implications it may have on SL reconstructions. At Cape Laundi, as elsewhere, we emphasize the necessity of addressing the development of CRT sequences with a dynamic approach, that is, considering that a CRT is a landform built continuously throughout the history of SL oscillations, and not simply during a singular SL maximum.