基于环境参数的极端暴雨指数构建及其应用

采用百分位法和1981—2010年30年逐年日降水量资料,设置了河南省极端暴雨阈值和区域极端暴雨标准,据此选取1981—2016年河南省极端暴雨个例13例,使用欧洲中期天气预报中心1°×1°再分析资料(ERA-Interim)对其环境参数进行分析,发现:表征大气水汽、动力及不稳定条件的环境参数,如850 hPa比湿和涡度、700 hPa垂直速度和V风分量,200 hPa散度、整层可降水量、K指数、0～3 km垂直风切变等,在极端暴雨过程中的平均值远远偏离其气候平均值,上述环境参数对极端暴雨预报有指示意义;环境参数的标准差倍数与降雨量具有较好相关性,二者的分位值基本沿y=x的对角线分布,环境参数标准差倍数分位值≥80%时,对异常降水(降水分位≥90%)有明显正相关;而环境参数标准差倍数分位较低时(40%),则更多对应了小量级降水。单一环境参数的异常往往不能体现降水异常程度,基于对极端暴雨有明确指示意义的8个环境参数,组建了极端暴雨指数(ERI),经13例极端暴雨个例回代和预报效果评估,ERI≥0.7时,极端暴雨TS评分达35%,漏报率为27%,空报率为49%,可将其作为极端暴雨预报的参考阈值。2018年"温比亚"台风极端暴雨过程中应用表明,该指数对极端暴雨落区预报有较好参考意义。     

人工增雨防雹火箭弹道跟踪系统的研制及初步试验

由于受到高空风场的影响,人工增雨防雹火箭真实的弹道轨迹和射程与理论弹道值具有不一致性。为增强实施增雨防雹作业的科学性、精准性及其作业效果评估准确性,研制了一套人工增雨防雹火箭播撒作业跟踪系统。该系统分为火箭定位系统和数据传输系统两部分,利用卫星定位模块加上数据传输电台模式将火箭飞行轨迹实时传输至地面。并开展了一次人工增雨防雹火箭弹道跟踪实弹发射试验,发射两发人工增雨防雹测试火箭,除初始阶段4～5 s卫星定位失锁而没有数据外,其余时间所有数据均接收完整。结合高空风场数据对人工增雨防雹测试火箭进行风偏修正后的实际弹道更接近于理论弹道,风偏修正意义明显,有利于增雨防雹火箭精准作业。     

Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (1977–2018)

A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results have shown that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has a significant increasing trend over the Arabian Sea and an insignificant decreasing trend over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in both the Arabian Sea and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and October–November, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1–H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those in the over BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations have a meridional (zonal) distribution in May–June (October–November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by western and northwestern tropical cyclones by that track west and NW, accounting for about 74.6%, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean is affected by the topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas. FAN Xiao-ting (樊晓婷), LI Ying (李 英), et al.     

1–100 μm energy spectra and 2.3–4 μm spectrophotometry of MSC stars

The JHKL' photometry and 2.3–4 μm spectrophotometry of some M giants, S type stars and carbon stars are presented in this paper. It is found that in combination with IRAS data, the energy spectra in 1–100 μm of S type stars are intermediate between those of M giants and carbon stars, which are obviously different. The spectrophotometry in the near infrared shows that, besides carbon stars, which have HCN and C₂H₂ strong absorptions at 3.1 μm, some S type stars have the similar but weaker absorption in the same spectral region. However, no trace of any absorption at 3.1 μm can be seen in M giants. These results probably provide more evidence for the M-S-C sequence in the late stage of stellar evolution.     

Magnetic field and flares of the large sunspot group of April–May 1978

From magnetograms of the active region 15266 obtained at Yunnan observatory we found that 1) an inverted field configuration and a twisted neutral line are both closely correlated with high-energy flare eruptions. After the flares, the field configuration and the neutral line revert to more stable states. 2) Most of the flares of the present region occurred away from the neutral line; those near the line occurred either in regions of high field gradient or in the vicinity of Severny's “neutral points”.     

WARM CONGRATULATIONS(FOREWORD)

The first issue of ANTARCTIC RESEARCH comes into the world.I greatly rcjoice andwarmly.congratulate on its start publication.Chinese Antarctic research started in a late time,but gets a rapid development.Especially inrecent years,a Chinese Antarctic investigation station named Great Wall Station was established,three extensive multidisciplinary investigations were carried out in.the area of the station,and thegratifying results of the preliminary study were obtained.So the Chinese scientists have the abilityto undertake independent investigations on Antarctica and gained some experience in the research.This success has     

宁波市轨道交通管线详查方法

根据宁波市轨道交通建设过程中对管线详查的要求,介绍相应管线探测的主要技术方法,并成功解决深埋金属管线和深埋非封闭非金属管线的探测技术方法,同时优化了数据处理技术,提高数据查询效率。     

基于光谱分类的太湖水体后向散射研究

由于时空变化而产生的水体后向散射系数参数化差异一直是影响水质参数遥感定量反演精度的一个重要因素。在对太湖遥感反射率光谱进行分类的基础上,针对影响太湖水体水色的不同主导因子,把太湖水体分为3种类型,分别利用半分析方法和光学闭合原理对后向散射系数进行模拟,在此基础上研究其光学特性及其与水体组分浓度的关系,最后针对3种不同主导类型的水体分别建立了后向散射系数参数化模型。将后向散射特性在不同时间和空间上的差异转化为水体不同主导因子在生物-光学上的差异,从而得到适用于太湖不同湖区及不同季节的后向散射系数参数化模型,为利用分析方法对太湖水质参数进行更为精确的遥感反演提供了基础。     

基于TIFF和XML标准的瓦片金字塔模型

随着数字地球、数字城市研究的深入,多分辨率空间数据模型已成为GIS研究的热点之一,瓦片金字塔作为管理栅格型空间数据的有效手段更得到了广泛应用.文中分析了普通金字塔模型的缺点,在此基础上设计并实现了符合TIFF和XML标准的通用数据模型;通过应用证明了模型的实用价值.     

Deformation analysis of geocell reinforcement using Winkler model

Geocell reinforcement has been increasingly applied to embankment engineerings. Deformation calculation is one of the major concerns during the design process. Using Winkler foundation model and with consideration of the interface resistance effect, a deformation control differential equation for the geocell reinforced mattress under the vertical symmetric loads is presented in this paper. The corresponding power-series semi analytic solutions for the displacements and the internal forces of geocell reinforcement are also presented. Furthermore, the influence factors such as loads, length and flexural rigidity of geocell reinforcement, coefficient of subgrade reaction and the interface resistance on the stress-deformation characteristic of geocell reinforcement are discussed. Finally, two examples are employed to verify the presented method. This study suggests that the effect of the interface resistance on the deformation of geocell reinforcement should be considered in engineering design.