中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

Soil Organic Carbon Contents and Stocks in Coastal Salt Marshes with Spartina alterniflora Following an Invasion Chronosequence in the Yellow River Delta,China

Plant invasion alters the fundamental structure and function of native ecosystems by affecting the biogeochemical pools and fluxes of materials and energy. Native(Suaeda salsa) and invasive(Spartina alterniflora) salt marshes were selected to study the effects of Spartina alterniflora invasion on soil organic carbon(SOC) contents and stocks in the Yellow River Delta. Results showed that the SOC contents(g/kg) and stocks(kg/m~2) were significantly increased(P 0.05) after Spartina alterniflora invasion of seven years, especially for the surface soil layer(0–20 cm). The SOC contents exhibited an even distribution along the soil profiles in native salt marshes, while the SOC contents were gradually decreased with depth after Spartina alterniflora invasion of seven years. The natural ln response ratios(Ln RR) were applied to identify the effects of short-term Spartina alterniflora invasion on the SOC stocks. We also found that Spartina alterniflora invasion might cause soil organic carbon losses in a short-term phase(2–4 years in this study) due to the negative Ln RR values, especially for 20–60 cm depth. And the SOCD in surface layer(0–20 cm) do not increase linearly with the invasive age. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that silt + clay content was exponentially related with SOC in surface layer(Adjusted R~2 = 0.43, P 0.001), suggesting that soil texture could play a key role in SOC sequestration of coastal salt marshes.     

Changes of Biogenic Elements in Phragmites australis and Suaeda salsa from Salt Marshes in Yellow River Delta,China

Little information is available on biogenic elements(carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur) and the ecological stoichiometric characteristics of plants in coastal wetlands. To investigate the contents of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur of plants, and their ecological stoichiometric characteristics in the Yellow(Huanghe) River Delta, plant samples were collected from two typical salt marshes(Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis wetlands) during the period of from August to October in 2007, and the ratios of C/N, C/P, N/P, C/N/P and C/N/P/S were calculated. Results showed that during the studying period, plant C, N and P were lower than the global average values, and plant N and P were lower than the China's average values. Leaf C and S in Suaeda salsa were significantly lower than those in Phragmites australis(P 0.05), and leaf N and P in Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis showed no significant differences(P 0.05). Average C/N ratios were 23.75 in leaf, 73.36 in stem, 65.67 in root of Suaeda salsa, and 33.77 in leaf, 121.68 in stem, 97.13 in root of Phragmites australis. Average C/N ratios of Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis were all great than 25, indicating the salt marsh in the Yellow River Delta is an N limitation system. Average C/P ratios were 276.78 in leaf, 709.28 in stem and 1031.32 in root of Suaeda salsa, and 536.94 in leaf, 768.13 in stem and 875.22 in root of Phragmites australis. The average N/P ratios of Suaeda salsa were 12.92 in leaf, 10.77 in stem and 10.91 in root, and the average N/P ratios of Phragmites australis were 16.40 in leaf, 7.40 in stem and 6.92 in root, indicating the Suaeda salsa wetlands were N limited and Phragmites australis wetlands were N limited in August and P limited in October in 2007. The average C/N, C/P and C/N/P ratios in Suaeda salsa and Pragmites australis were higher than the global average values, indicating the lower quality of organic matter provided by wetland plants in the Yellow River delta.     

武汉主城区液化潜能分区研究

搜集并整理武汉主城区地震安全性评价控制性钻孔SPT-N资料,配合武汉市地震动参数小区划成果,采用规范法对各场地土层在罕遇地震作用下液化可能性进行判别。以液化指数作为分区指标并结合各场地坐标,绘制武汉主城区液化潜能分区图。分区图初步预测了罕遇地震发生以后,可能发生液化的区域及其严重性,且表明无论是分布面积还是液化潜能,长江右岸均大于长江左岸。通过与4次历史大震液化资料的对比分析,武汉主城区可能液化场地具有地下水位埋深浅、液化土层分布范围广、埋藏深度大的特点。     

Leak-off mechanism and pressure prediction for shallow sediments in deepwater drilling

Deepwater sediments are prone to loss circulation in drilling due to a low overburden gradient. How to predict the magnitude of leak-off pressure more accurately is an important issue in the protection of drilling safety and the reduction of drilling cost in deep water. Starting from the mechanical properties of a shallow formation and based on the basic theory of rock-soil mechanics, the stress distribution around a borehole was analyzed. It was found that the rock or soil on a borehole is in the plastic yield state before the effective tensile stress is generated, and the effective tangential and vertical stresses increase as the drilling fluid density increases; thus, tensile failure will not occur on the borehole wall. Based on the results of stress calculation, two mechanisms and leak-off pressure prediction models for shallow sediments in deepwater drilling were put forward, and the calculated values of these models were compared with the measured value of shallow leak-off pressure in actual drilling. The results show that the MHPS (minimum horizontal principle stress) model and the FIF (fracturing in formation) model can predict the lower and upper limits of leak-off pressure. The PLC (permeable lost circulation) model can comprehensively analyze the factors influencing permeable leakage and provide a theoretical basis for leak-off prevention and plugging in deepwater drilling.     

OceanRoute: Vessel Mobility Data Processing and Analyzing Model Based on MapReduce

The network coverage is a big problem in ocean communication, and there is no low-cost solution in the short term. Based on the knowledge of Mobile Delay Tolerant Network (MDTN), the mobility of vessels can create the chances of end-to-end communication. The mobility pattern of vessel is one of the key metrics on ocean MDTN network. Because of the high cost, few experiments have focused on research of vessel mobility pattern for the moment. In this paper, we study the traces of more than 4000 fishing and freight vessels. Firstly, to solve the data noise and sparsity problem, we design two algorithms to filter the noise and complement the missing data based on the vessel’s turning feature. Secondly, after studying the traces of vessels, we observe that the vessel’s traces are confined by invisible boundary. Thirdly, through defining the distance between traces, we design MR-Similarity algorithm to find the mobility pattern of vessels. Finally, we realize our algorithm on cluster and evaluate the performance and accuracy. Our results can provide the guidelines on design of data routing protocols on ocean MDTN.     

2009—2012年泉州湾大型底栖生物多样性研究

文章根据2009—2012年泉州湾4个航次的调查资料,对比分析了4年间大型底栖生物的种类数、生物量、栖息密度、生物多样性的变化趋势。结果表明：泉州湾大型底栖生物有103种,其中多毛类48种,软体动物25种,甲壳动物18种,棘皮动物6种和其他动物6种。多毛类、软体动物、甲壳动物占总种数的88.3%,三者构成大型底栖生物的主要类群。泉州湾大型底栖生物平均生物量为7.77 g/m2,平均栖息密度76个/m2;数量组成,生物量以甲壳动物居首位2.40 g/m2;栖息密度以多毛类占第一位38个/m2。泉州湾大型底栖生物种类数、生物量、栖息密度、生物多样性均为湾中部及湾外较好,湾顶较差;从2009—2012年际变化来看,生物种类数、平均生物量、平均栖息密度均为2009年最好,2012年相对较差,生物多样性年际变化不大,说明泉州湾的大型底栖生物环境受到了一定的影响。     

我国海洋战略性新兴产业国际化发展研究

海洋战略性新兴产业的国际化发展对于建设海洋强国和发展海洋经济具有重要的理论和实际意义。文章分析我国海洋战略性新兴产业国际化起步晚和发展快、产业结构不断完善和区域发展水平存在差异的发展状况,提出目前存在的缺乏区域协调配合和交流合作以及政府支持政策亟须细化等主要问题,探索区域差异化发展模式、产业技术创新联盟合作模式、多元化投融资模式和国际合作模式等海洋战略性新兴产业国际化发展模式,在此基础上提出优化产业结构和布局、完善发展体制机制、加强国际交流合作、加强资金投入和人才培养以及强化示范项目建设的对策建议。     

深海海底光缆敷设施工余量控制的原理和控制软件的应用

为解决深海有中继海底光缆项目技术难题,中国海底电缆建设有限公司开发了海底光缆敷设施工控制软件,填补我国相关领域的空白。文章介绍海底光缆敷设施工余量控制的原理和控制软件的操作流程:海底光缆余量包括区域余量、底部余量和释放余量,余量控制是海底光缆敷设施工中最关键的核心技术环节,应用控制软件可极大地降低计算量和提高计算精确度,并可通过在施工中不断调整计划,从而极大地提高施工质量,具有传统人工计算不可比拟的优势。     

基于可靠性的海洋立管疲劳安全系数研究

综合考虑了立管疲劳安全系数取值的相关因素——立管的安全等级、设计寿命、检验周期、载荷和损伤计算方法等的不确定性,提出了基于可靠度的疲劳安全系数确定方法,筛选了用于计算波致疲劳和VIV(涡激振动)疲劳的随机变量,给出了立管波致疲劳与VIV疲劳安全系数的计算流程,并以某SCR(钢悬链线立管)为例进行了安全系数计算。结果表明,该方法的计算结果优于传统的安全系数确定方法,尤其适合于特殊工程方案或新颖设计的立管疲劳校核。