飞机积冰过程的诊断分析及强度预报建模

利用NCEP再分析数据和观测数据,对2000年6月6日甘肃省人工增雨作业时的一次飞机积冰过程进行诊断分析,利用WRF模式对72个飞机积冰实例的天气过程进行了数值模拟,在此基础上结合飞机飞行速度建立了积冰强度预报模型,通过统计分析和拟合得到预报模型的参数,并利用飞机实测报告对该模型的预报效果进行了回报检验。结果表明,该模型对飞机积冰强度的预报准确率为69.44%,强度预报结果偏弱占比25%,偏强占比5.56%。     

对流层氮氧化物光化学转化特征研究

应用大气光化学模式研究了日间影响NOx光化学转化率的主要物理化学因子.探讨了在不同NMHC/NOx比值时,NOx光化学特征及其转化产物的变化规律.结果表明,影响NOx转化率的主要因子是阳光辐射强度和NMHC/NOx比值.但在NMHC/NOx比值很低时,光强的增加并不能显著提高NOx转化率.温度和初始臭氧浓度对NOx转化率的影响次之.相对湿度对NOx转化率的影响较小.在不同NMHC/NOx比值下,NOx转化特征和产物有很大区别.NMHC/NOx比值高时,产物中PAN＞HNO3.NMHC/NOx比值中(低)时,产物主要是HNO3,PAN等有机氮不到10%(1%).最后初步比较了模拟和观测的NOy组成.     

A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: roles of background wind changes

This study explains why a number of El Nino properties (period, amplitude, structure, and propagation) have changed in a coherent manner since the late 1970s and why these changes had almost concurred with the Pacific decadal climate shift. Evidence is presented to show that from the pre-shift (1961-1975) to the post-shift (1981-1995) epoch, significant changes in the tropical Pacific are found in the surface winds and temperature, whereas changes in the thermocline are uncertain. Numerical experiments with the Cane and Zebiak model demonstrate that the decadal changes in the surface winds qualitatively reproduce the observed coherent changes in El Nino properties. The fundamental factor that altered the model's El Nino is the decadal changes of the background equatorial winds and associated upwelling. The annual cycle is also necessary for the mean state to modulate El Nino. From the pre- to post-shift epoch, the changes in the background winds and upwelling modify the structure of the coupled mode (eastward displacement of the equatorial westerly anomalies) by reallocating anomalous atmospheric heating and SST gradient along the equator. This structural change amplifies the ENSO cycle and prolongs the oscillation period by enhancing the coupled instability and delaying transitions from a warm to a cold state or vice versa. The changes in the mean currents and upwelling reduce the effect of the zonal temperature advection while enhance that of the vertical advection; thus, the prevailing westward propagation is replaced by eastward propagation or standing oscillation. Our results suggest a critical role of the atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influences of extratropical decadal variations to the tropics, and the possibility that the Pacific climate shift might have affected El Nino properties in the late 1970s by changing the background tropical winds and the associated equatorial upwelling.     

贡嘎山现代植物叶蜡脂肪酸氢同位素组成及对海拔变化的响应

文章探讨了贡嘎山东坡不同海拔高度植物和土壤饱和脂肪酸的δDwax值,结果显示,土壤δDwax值与海拔显著负相关(R2=0.71),与前人报道的贡嘎山东坡土壤水、土壤正构烷烃δD值与海拔间的关系存在相同的趋势。植物δDwax值与海拔间的关系与土壤水及土壤相似,但相关性不明显(R2=0.11),然而,研究结果显示木本植物和草本植物的δDwax值随海拔变化存在明显的差异,总体上草本植物的氢同位素要更负。贡嘎山木本植物、草本植物和土壤的εwax-sw值随海拔的变化波动较小,但木本植物的加权平均δDwax值和εwax-sw值(土壤水和叶蜡之间的氢同位素分馏系数)比草本植物大约偏正38‰和43‰,表明它们各自对随海拔高度降水同位素变化有不同的响应。也即,沿海拔植物δDwax值同时受降水δD值和植物类型两个因素控制。因此,结果揭示土壤δDwax值随海拔的变化与木本植物和草本植物存在相同的趋势,木本植物的δD值比草本植物大约偏正了38‰,这个趋势显示植物类型的变化将不可避免的影响土壤饱和脂肪酸δDwax值与海拔间的关系。由于植物类型随海拔增加会有较大的变化,建议利用饱和脂肪酸δDwax值重建古海拔前需要对植物类型进行评估。     

Evaluation of oxygen isotopes in carbonate as an indicator of lake evolution in arid areas: The modern Qinghai Lake, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The oxygen isotopic composition of carbonate in lakes has been used as a useful indicator in Palaeolimnological research, and has made some important contributions to our understanding of lacustrine systems. For modern lakes in arid or cold areas, however, there are few data available to test the effect of lake salinity and temperature on the oxygen isotopic composition of various carbonate sources such as ostracod, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonate (< 60 μm). Here we examined the oxygen isotopic composition of ostracods, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonates, as well as that of coexisting water from Lake Qinghai and the smaller surrounding lakes and ponds on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Our investigation highlights three key effects. First, the oxygen isotopic composition of ostracods, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonate in the lakes and ponds shows a clear response to lake water δ¹⁸O values, and these vary with water salinity. The relationship between lake water δ¹⁸O and salinity is not only dominated by the evaporation/freshwater input ratios, but is also controlled by the distance to the mouth of the major rivers supplying to the lake. Second, the ostracod, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonate show similar isotopic change trends in the study area, and oxygen isotopic differences between ostracods and authigenic carbonate may be explained by the different water temperatures and very small ‘vital offsets’ of ostracods. Finally, the effect of water depth on temperature leads to increasing δ¹⁸O values in carbonates as water depth increases, both in benthic ostracods living on the lake bottom, as well as in bulk carbonate precipitated at the water surface.For arid, high-altitude Lake Qinghai, our results suggest that variations in the δ¹⁸O values of carbonate in Lake Qinghai are mainly controlled by the oxygen-isotope ratio of the lake water changing with water salinity. As a secondary effect, increasing water depth leads to cooler bottom and surface water, which may result in more positive δ¹⁸O values of ostracod and bulk carbonate.     

关于全球变化研究的几个问题

第四纪地质工作者面临全球变化研究的形势,应主动调整自身的研究战略,注重最近0.15Ma环境信息的提取,加强地质过程的研究,重视人类活动对环境的影响,强调模型的模拟和检验。     

森林沼泽景观区区域化探新、旧方法技术应用效果对比

自森林沼泽景观区1∶20万区域化探工作开展以来,各个单位、不同阶段工作方法技术各有不同,工作效果不明显。中国地质科学院地球物理地球化学勘查研究所近年来通过研究制定了新的工作方法技术,通过应用取得了较好的效果,为此本文仅以内蒙古一二五公里幅1∶20万区域化探新、旧方法技术的应用效果对比进行初步探讨。     

三小时负变压异常指数及对强对流天气的预报意义

低层暖平流强迫类强对流发生前,地面经常伴有低于日变化的3 h变压。结合常规地面观测资料,定义低于日变化的3 h变压异常（超过一个标准差定义为异常）指数PCR（Pressure Change Range）,讨论了中国中东部地区3 h变压标准差的气候分布特征;最后以3次强对流天气过程为例说明PCR指数的预报价值和时效。结果表明,与3 h变压均值相比,中国中东部地区的3 h变压标准差的日变化较小,PCR更适合作为变压异常程度的标准。东北、华北、华东-华中区域PCR冬春季节出现站次数偏多,夏秋季节偏少;华南区域除了冬春季外,夏季也偏多,秋季偏少。PCR主要集中在低级别强度上,但PCR级别越高,越有可能出现强对流天气。东北区域出现PCR的首要原因是受东北气旋的影响,且可能有TBB≤-52℃的云系相对应;华北、华东-华中、华南出现PCR的首要原因是冷高压变性或迅速东移,没有TBB≤-52℃的云系相对应;地面倒槽中出现的PCR全部有TBB≤-52℃的云系对应。3次强对流天气过程均发生在地面倒槽中;在发生前3 h左右,地面气压场上有较明显的负PCR中心出现,强对流天气中尺度云团有向负PCR中心移动的趋势。      

Sensitivity of the Equatorial Air-Sea Coupled System to the Zonal Phase Difference between SST and Wind Stress

1. IntroductionMany studies using a variety of coupled models have reproduced ENSO like features(e.g., Hirst, 1986, 1988; Zebiak and Cane, 1987; Battisti and Hirst, 1989; Jin and Neelin, 1993;Jin, 1997; Kirtman, 1997; Kang and An, 1998; Wakata and Sarachik, 1991). But, a variety ofsolutions have been reported depending on different parameterizations of atmospheric processes, particularly the relationship between wind stress and SST anomaly, indicating that therelationship has a large i…     

Vertical structure variability and equatorial waves during central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Ni?os in a coupled general circulation model

Recent studies report that two types of El Ni?o events have been observed. One is the cold tongue El Ni?o or Eastern Pacific El Ni?o (EP El Ni?o), which is characterized by relatively large sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific, and the other is the warm pool El Ni?o (a.k.a. ‘Central Pacific El Ni?o’ (CP El Ni?o) or ‘El Ni?o Modoki’), in which SST anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. Here the vertical structure variability of the periods during EP and CP is investigated based on the GFDL_CM2.1 model in order to explain the difference in equatorial wave dynamics and associated negative feedback mechanisms. It is shown that the mean stratification in the vicinity of the thermocline of the central Pacific is reduced during CP El Ni?o, which favours the contribution of the gravest baroclinic mode relatively to the higher-order slower baroclinic mode. Energetic Kelvin and first-meridional Rossby wave are evidenced during the CP El Ni?o with distinctive amplitude and propagating characteristics according to their vertical structure (mostly first and second baroclinic modes). In particular, the first baroclinic mode during CP El Ni?o is associated to the ocean basin mode and participates to the recharge process during the whole El Ni?o cycle, whereas the second baroclinic mode is mostly driving the discharge process through the delayed oscillator mechanism. This may explain that the phase transition from warm to neutral/cold conditions during the CP El Ni?o is delayed and/or disrupted compared to the EP El Ni?o. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the variability during periods of high CP El Ni?o occurrence like the last decade.