Radio counterpart searches of gamma ray bursts

Radio observations may be one of the most promising but least explored bands of the spectrum to search for the counterparts of gamma ray bursters. We describe several ongoing experiments with demonstrated high sensitivity to monitor gamma ray bursts for evidence of a flaring or fading counterpart in the days, weeks and months following the original event.     

Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.     

Correction to: Application of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to study glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and its impact on a hydropower station in Central Himalaya

Natural Hazards - The article was published with the citation “Worni et al. (2012)”. The author group of the article would like readers to know that this information should instead...     

Millisecond pulsar velocities

We present improved timing parameters for 13 millisecond pulsars (MSPs), including nine new proper motion measurements. These new proper motions bring to 23 the number of MSPs with measured transverse velocities. In light of these new results we present and compare the kinematic properties of MSPs with those of ordinary pulsars. The mean transverse velocity of MSPs was found to be 85±13 km s⁻¹, a value consistent with most models for the origin and evolution of MSPs and approximately a factor of 4 lower than that of ordinary pulsars. We also find that, in contrast to young ordinary pulsars, the vast majority of which are moving away from the Galactic plane, almost half of the MSPs are moving towards the plane. This near-isotropy would be expected of a population that has reached dynamic equilibrium. Accurate measurements of MSP velocities have allowed us to correct their measured spin-down rates for Doppler acceleration effects, and thereby derive their intrinsic magnetic field strengths and characteristic ages. We find that close to half of our sample of MSPs have a characteristic age comparable to or greater than the age of the Galactic disc.     

Reconstruction of specific mass balance for glaciers in Western Himalaya using seasonal sensitivity characteristic(s)

Seasonal sensitivity characteristics (SSCs) were developed for Naradu, Shaune Garang, Gor Garang and Gara glaciers, Western Himalaya to quantify the changes in mean specific mass balance using monthly temperature and precipitation perturbations. The temperature sensitivities were observed high during summer (April–October) and precipitation sensitivities during winter months (November–March), respectively. The reconstructed mass balance correlates well with the field and remote sensing measurements, available between 1980 and 2014. Further, SSCs were used with the monthly mean temperatures and precipitation estimates of ERA 20CM ensemble climate reanalysis datasets to reconstruct the specific mass balance for a period of 110 years, between 1900 and 2010. Mass balance estimates suggest that the Shaune Garang, Gor-Garang and Gara glaciers have experienced both positive and negative mass balance, whereas the Naradu glacier has experienced only negative mass balance since 1900 AD. Further, a cumulative loss of \(-133 \pm 21.5\) m.w.e was estimated for four glaciers during the observation period. This study is the first record from Indian Himalaya in evaluating the mass balance characteristics over a century scale.     

Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean

The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s^?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast.     

Role of intra-seasonal oscillations in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The day-to-day behavior of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (IMR) is associated with a hierarchy of quasi-periods, namely 3?C7, 10?C20 and the 30?C60?days. These two periods, the 10?C20?days and the 30?C60?days have been related with the active and break cycles of the monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent. The seasonal strength of Indian summer monsoon rainfall may depend on the frequency and duration of spells of break and active periods associated with the fluctuations of the above intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs). Thus the predictability of the seasonal (June through September) mean Indian monsoon depends on the extent to which the intra-seasonal oscillations could be predicted. The primary objective of this study is to bring out the dynamic circulation features during the pre-monsoon/monsoon season associated with the extreme phases of these oscillations The intense (weak) phase of the 10?C20 (30?C60) days oscillation is associated with anti-cyclonic circulation over the Indian Ocean, easterly flow over the equatorial Pacific Ocean resembling the normal or cold phase (La Nina) of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and weakening of the north Pacific Sub-tropical High. On the other hand the weak phase of 10?C20?days mode and the intense phase of 30?C60?days mode shows remarkable opposite flow patterns. The circulation features during pre-monsoon months show that there is a tendency for the flow patterns observed in pre-monsoon months to persist during the monsoon months. Hence some indications of the behavior of these modes during the monsoon season could be foreshadowed from the spring season patterns. The relationship between the intensity of these modes and some of the long-range forecasting parameters used operationally by the India Meteorological Department has also been examined.     

Solar Activity,Lightning and Climate

The physics of solar forcing of the climate and long term climate change is summarized, and the role of energetic charged particles (including cosmic rays) on cloud formation and their effect on climate is examined. It is considered that the cosmic ray-cloud cover hypothesis is not supported by presently available data and further investigations (during Forbush decreases and at other times) should be analyzed to further examine the hypothesis. Another player in climate is lightning through the production of NO_x; this greenhouse gas, water vapour in the troposphere (and stratosphere) and carbon dioxide influence the global temperature through different processes. The enhancement of aerosol concentrations and their distribution in the troposphere also affect the climate and may result in enhanced lightning activity. Finally, the roles of atmospheric conductivity on the electrical activity of thunderstorms and lightning discharges in relation to climate are discussed.