新滩滑坡后两岸边坡的位移监测及形变趋势

本文介绍新滩滑坡后两岸边坡监测的工作,对边坡变形提出了趋势意见。认为新滩斜坡目前正处于整体稳定下的局部调整阶段,变形缓慢平稳,但要注视广家崖的危岩动态;链子崖仍有趋势性的倾江形变。5—6号缝围成的7万方危岩及江段的5万方危岩体尚有一触即崩之势,须加强监视。     

Subglacial Meltwater Recharge in the Dongkemadi River Basin,Yangtze River Source Region

Glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau play an important role in the local hydrological cycle. However, there are only few studies on groundwater in the alpine basins in the Tibetan Plateau which considered the effects of glaciers. Glaciers are extensively distributed in the Dongkemadi River Basin, which is a representative alpine basin in the Yangtze River source region. This study focuses on building a numerical groundwater flow model with glaciations using HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to simulate subglacial meltwater recharge to groundwater in the Dongkemadi River Basin in response to future climate changes. Effects of hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, and temperature on subglacial meltwater recharge to groundwater were discussed. Glacier changes in the future 50 years were predicted under different climate change scenarios. Results show that: (1) the average thickness of the glacier will change significantly; (2) the simulated rate of annual mean subglacial meltwater recharge to groundwater is 4.58 mm, which accounts for 6.33% of total groundwater recharge; and (3) hydraulic conductivity has the largest influence on subglacial meltwater recharge to groundwater, followed by temperature and precipitation. Results of this study are also important to sustainable water resource usage in the Yangtze River source region.     

1972—2019年南极威德尔冰间湖以及莫德高地冰间湖的特征分析

基于美国冰雪中心以及AMSR-2海冰密集度产品,分析了1972—2019年在威德尔海域发生的莫德高地冰间湖（1973、1980—2017年）以及威德尔冰间湖（1974—1976年）的时空变化特征,从而为研究冰间湖的形成和长期变化机制提供依据。选用40%海冰密集度阈值识别冰间湖,发现威德尔冰间湖（平均面积为250 000 km²）从结冰期至融冰期一直存在,而莫德高地冰间湖（面积从1980年的1 350 km²至2017年的53 180 km²）则出现日期晚（晚于7月18日）且持续时间短（除2017年长达90 d以上,一般在3~23 d内）。这些时空特征差异反映了与威德尔冰间湖和莫德高地冰间湖相关的海洋对流活动的巨大差异。基于漂流浮标数据评估了2016—2017年莫德高地冰间湖出现前中后区域的温盐变化特征,发现2016年夏季表层水盐度升高,且在2017年变得更暖更咸,但在2018年却变淡。这可能与莫德高地冰间湖在2016年冬出现、2017年冬面积增大以及2018年冬未出现的现象密切相关。此外,2019年在离莫德高地西南方3 000 km的海域首次出现了一个冰间湖,这可能是由于风暴过境导致。海洋和大气在冰间湖的产生、维持以及消散中起着重要作用。     

The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part I: Improved land surface scheme with vegetation dynamics

The formulation of a new land surface scheme (LSS) with vegetation dynamics for coupling to the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) is presented. This LSS has the following notable improvements over the old version: (1) parameterization of deciduous and evergreen trees by using the models climatology and the output of the dynamic global vegetation model, VECODE (Brovkin et al. in Ecological Modelling 101:251–261 (1997), Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16(4):1139, (2002)); (2) parameterization of tree leaf budburst and leaf drop by using the models climatology; (3) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of the grass leaf area index; (4) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of tree leaf area index by using the time-dependent growth of the leaves; (5) calculation of land surface albedo by using vegetation-related parameters, snow depth and the models climatology. The results show considerable improvement of the models simulation of the present-day climate as compared with that simulated in the original physically-based MPM. In particular, the strong seasonality of terrestrial vegetation and the associated land surface albedo variations are in good agreement with several satellite observations of these quantities. The application of this new version of the MPM (the green MPM) to Holocene millennial-scale climate changes is described in a companion paper, Part II.

---

京津唐城市群不透水地表增长对水环境的影响(英文)

The impervious surface area (ISA) at the regional scale is one of the important en-vironmental factors for examining the interaction and mechanism of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC)-ecosystem processes-climate change under the interactions of urbanization and global environmental change. Timely and accurate extraction of ISA from remotely sensed data at the regional scale is challenging. This study explored the ISA extraction based on MODIS and DMSP-OLS data and the incorporation of China’s land use/cover data. ISA datasets in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area (BTTMA) in 2000 and 2008 at a spa-tial resolution of 250 m were developed, their spatiotemporal changes were analyzed, and their impacts on water quality were then evaluated. The results indicated that ISA in BTTMA increased rapidly along urban fringe, transportation corridors and coastal belt both in intensity and extents from 2000 to 2008. Three cities (Tangshan, Langfang and Qinhuangdao) in Hebei Province had higher ISA growth rates than Beijing due to the pressure of population-re?sour?ces-envi?ronments in the city resulting in increasingly transferring industries to the nearby areas. The dense ISA distribution in BTTMA has serious impacts on water quality in the Haihe River watershed. Meanwhile, the proportion of ISA in sub-watersheds has significantly linear relationships with the densities of river COD and NH3-N.     

信阳市渔业气象服务效益分析

对信阳市南湾水库渔业气象服务效益调查分析结果表明:在亲鱼培育、种苗繁殖、苗种培育、成鱼养殖、捕捞等主要生产阶段,成鱼养殖阶段服务效益最大,为21.98万元;繁殖、亲鱼培育阶段服务效益占该阶段渔业总产值的比例分别列第一和第二,说明这两个生产阶段气象服务尤为重要.由于对渔业气象服务还不够重视,加之还缺乏渔业与气象条件关系的研究,目前渔业气象服务层次较低,渔业气象服务效益贡献率也较低.     

“圣帕”与“桑美”台风成功决策服务对比分析

从台风影响长沙前的气候背景、预报服务背景、预报依据结论、决策服务及效果等方面分析了"圣帕""桑美"影响期间的决策服务情况.结论表明:两个台风影响前气候背景不同,但预报服务背景相似;对长沙造成的影响、决策气象服务的重点不同;把握好当前的气候背景与预报服务背景,做好做准台风预报,是台风决策服务的关键.     

2008年冰灾期间GFS对长沙预报能力检验

应用相关分析、绝对误差统计、定性分析等方法,选取天气在线网上的GFS预报产品在冰灾期间内长沙站附近格点的部分气象要素预报值进行检验,发现GFS预报最高最低气温、降水类型、晴雨、风等方面有较好的指导意义.     

综合气象因素对广西电力负荷的影响

针对电网负荷易受多种气象因素影响的特点,为综合衡量气象因素对广西电力负荷的影响,引入了气象学指数--有效温度,分析了4-10月气温、相对湿度、风及有效气温对电力负荷的影响.结果表明:气温与电力负荷呈显著的正相关关系,气温是影响电力负荷的主要因子;夏季以气温和风速、气温和相对湿度组合的变化对负荷的影响较大,风速从静风到有风时,负荷明显地减少,但当超过一定的温度时,风速越大负荷反而增加;6-9月,负荷随着气温和有效温度的升高呈线性增加;在春夏、夏秋季过渡季节,负荷并不完全随着气温的升高而增加,在气温不是太高的阶段,相对湿度增大时,负荷有下降的趋势,当超过一定的温度时,负荷随气温和有效温度的升高而增加.