RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2��C

The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO₂ gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO₂ gases.     

The origin of glasses in hydrous mantle xenoliths from the West Eifel,Germany: incongruent break down of amphibole

Patches of glass with a second generation of small crystals of olivine, clinopyroxene, and spinel are abundant in hydrous peridotite mantle xenoliths with tabular equigranular textures from two maar-type volcanoes, Meerfelder Maar and Dreiser Weiher (West Eifel, Germany). The patches are similar in size to the main phases of the hosting peridotite. Their central part is often occupied by relics of pargasitic amphibole. Mass-balance calculations show that the patches were formed by surface controlled incongruent thermal breakdown of amphibole according to the reaction: amphibole olivine + clinopyroxene + spinel + melt. Simultaneously with the decomposition of amphibole, small crystals of olivine, clinopyroxene, and spinel grew radially from the patch/peridotite interface toward the centre of the patch. Apart from sector zoning of clinopyroxene, the crystals are virtually homogeneous and are separated from the amphibole by a seam of melt (glass). Secondary olivines reveal higher Mg-numbers, secondary clinopyroxenes higher Cr₂O₃ concentrations than olivines and clinopyroxenes, respectively, of the host peridotite. The silica contents of melts produced by the above breakdown reaction range from 48 to 52% SiO₂ as a function of the composition of the parent amphiboles. Patches surrounded by primary olivines only reveal no reaction with the host peridotite. The variation of SiO₂, MgO and CaO in melts from these patches is the result of minor precipitation of olivine and clinopyroxene during fast cooling. If patches are in contact with primary olivine and orthopyroxene, melts are additionally modified by the reaction liquid 1 + orthopyroxene liquid 2 + olivine + clinopyroxene resulting in more silica-rich compositions between 54 and 58%. For the rare glasses richer in silica, a more complex formation is required. Veinlets along grain boundaries are filled with glasses which are chemically identical to those from nearby patches. This suggests that the veinlets were filled by melts formed by amphibole breakdown during entrainment of the xenoliths to the host magmas.     

The Purpose and Age of Underwater Walls in the Bay of Elaia of Western Turkey: A Multidisciplinary Approach

Pergamum (modern: Bergama) was operating an important harbour used by military forces and merchants at the city of Elaia during Hellenistic and Roman Imperial times. Harbour‐related facilities such as warehouses, breakwaters and wharfs document the importance of this harbour site not only for the Pergamenians. This paper focuses on the purpose and age of six submerged wall structures situated approximately 1 km south of the ancient closed harbour basin of Elaia. Geoelectric cross‐sections and semi‐aquatic coring near these walls failed to detect any solid basement under the walls which excludes their possible use as breakwaters or wharfs. Instead, the walls were most likely delineating and separating evaporation ponds of salt works, which compares well with similar structures from other periods and places around the Mediterranean. Combined OSL and ¹⁴C‐dating determined the construction age of the installation between the 4th and 6th centuries A.D. Subsequent (re‐)uses are likely and are in agreement with findings from archaeological surveys.     

Collocation of hydrological and biological attenuation of nitrate in an urban stream

The hydrologic and biogeochemical processes that control nutrient export in urban streams are not well understood. Attenuation can occur by tributary dilution, groundwater discharge, and biological processing both in the water column and the hyporheic zone. A wastewater treatment plant on Pennypack Creek, an urban stream near Philadelphia, PA, provided high nitrate concentrations for analysis of downstream attenuation processes. Longitudinal sampling for an 8‐km reach revealed decreases in nitrate concentration of 2 mg l^?1 at high flow and 4.5 mg l^?1 during low flow. During high flow, δ¹⁵N‐NO₃ increased from 9.5 to 10.5‰ and during low flow increased from 10.1 to 11.1‰. Two reaches were sampled at fine spatial intervals (approximately 200 m) to better identify attenuation processes. Mixing analysis indicated that groundwater discharge and biological processing both control nitrate concentration and isotope signatures. However, fine‐scaled sampling did not reveal spatially discrete zones; instead, these processes were occurring simultaneously. While both processes attenuate nitrate, they have opposite isotope signatures, which may have muted changes in δ¹⁵N‐NO₃. At high flow, a decrease in Cl/NO₃ ratios helped distinguish groundwater discharge occurring along both finely sampled reaches. At low flow, biological processing seemed to be occurring more extensively, but the δ¹⁵N‐NO₃ signature was not consistent with either a single process or a sequential combination of groundwater dilution and biological nitrate attenuation. The collocation of processes makes it more difficult to assess biological processing hot spots and predict how urbanization and subsequent stream restoration influence nitrate attenuation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Tidal triggering of reservoir-associated earthquakes

If the effect of a reservoir is to bring a fault zone gradually to failure and trigger an earthquake, then it is reasonable that rapidly fluctuating tidal stresses may influence the time of the induced earthquakes. An examination of earthquakes from eight reservoirs shows that earthquakes at six sites occur at preferred times in the semidiurnal tidal cycle. Tidal-stress orientations and the phase within the semidiurnal tidal cycle were calculated for only the largest earthquakes occurring at each site. This insures the elimination of aftershocks and selects earthquakes which are independent of each other. Sites of a significant earthquake/tide correlation with less than a 3% chance of occurring randomly include Hebgen Lake, Mont., U.S.A.; Kariba, Rhodesia; Kerr Dam, Mont., U.S.A.; Kremasta, Greece; Lake Mead, Nev., U.S.A.; and Monteynard, France. Each data set includes from about ten to twenty earthquakes. In most of the above cases earthquake triggering seems to occur when tidal stress enhances slip, i.e., when tidal stresses are oriented to enhance the tectonic stress.     

Simple Temperature Scenario for a Gulf Stream Induced Climate Change

Consequences of a Gulf Stream induced ocean surface cooling for the temperature climate of Western Europe were studied by means of a conditional perturbation of the observed daily temperature time series of the Netherlands. On days with advection of airmasses of maritime origin, the observed temperatures in the series were lowered with a fixed value, representing the influence of a cooler Atlantic Ocean. On the other days, the observed temperatures were left unchanged. The perturbation results in a decrease in the mean temperature that is almost constant over the year, and in a change in the standard deviation of the daily temperatures that is seasonally dependent. Due to preferential cooling of warm winter days, the standard deviation decreases in the winter, whereas in the other seasons the standard deviation increases as a result of preferential cooling of days with low temperatures. Although this ocean cooling scenario indicates an increase of the relative frequency of cold winters and cool summers, it is neither characterized by the occurrence of winters with unprecedented low temperatures nor by the disappearance of summer heatwaves.     

Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool

This paper describes the development of the DIVA tool, a user-friendly tool for assessing coastal vulnerability from subnational to global levels. The development involved the two major challenges of integrating knowledge in the form of data, scenarios and models from various natural, social and engineering science disciplines and making this integrated knowledge accessible to a broad community of end-users. These challenges were addressed by (i) creating and applying the DIVA method, an iterative, modular method for developing integrating models amongst distributed partners and (ii) making the data, scenarios and integrated model, equipped with a powerful graphical user interface, directly and freely available to end-users.