The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.     

Traces of ancient geysers preserved in the travertine of Siwaqa,Jordan: conditions of their formation

A Pleistocene travertine quarrying on a hill in Siwaqa area, central Jordan, excavated solid, well-stratified travertine beds of about 12 m in thickness. The fabric and composition of the travertine indicate original deposition from hot spring water. At present, the area and its surrounding are devoid of any perennial water, except for periodic flood flows that collect at Siwaqa dam 4–5 km to the west of the quarry area, joining the catchment of the River Mujib. The travertine overlies combusted oil shale. The exposed hot spring travertine consists predominantly of well-bedded limestone, interrupted by horizons of chaotic angular debris, indicating ejection from below such as those produced by geysers. The article discusses the origins of the mottled and angular rock fragments, their transportation due to explosive geyser, the conditions and possible causes that produced the pressures leading to steam outbreaks and are responsible for the observed redistribution of travertine layers.     

Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations

Natural Hazards - The deltaic coast of Myanmar was severely hit by tropical cyclone Nargis in May 2008. In the present study, a top-down numerical simulation approach using the Weather Research and...     

Empirical assessment of rockfall and debris flow risk along the Karakoram Highway,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - The Karakoram Highway links north Pakistan with southwest China. It passes through unique geomorphological, geological and tectonic setting. This study focused 200-km-long section...     

Age and origin of groundwater resources in the Ararat Valley,Armenia: a baseline study applying hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers

Within the Ararat Valley (Armenia), a continuously growing water demand (for irrigation and fish farming) and a simultaneous decline in groundwater recharge (due to climate change) result in increasing stress on the local groundwater resources. This detrimental development is reflected by groundwater-level drops and an associated reduction of the area with artesian conditions in the valley centre. This situation calls for increasing efforts aimed at more sustainable water resources management. The aim of this baseline study was the collection of data that allows for study on the origin and age distribution of the Ararat Valley groundwater based on environmental tracers, namely stable (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and radioactive (³⁵S, ³H) isotopes, as well as physical-chemical indicators. The results show that the Ararat Valley receives modern recharge, despite its (semi-)arid climate. While subannual groundwater residence times could be disproved (³⁵S), the detected ³H pattern suggests groundwater ages of several decades, with the oldest waters being recharged around 60 years ago. The differing groundwater ages are reflected by varying scatter of stable isotope and hydrochemical signatures. The presence of young groundwater (i.e., younger that the 1970s), some containing nitrate, indicates groundwater vulnerability and underscores the importance of increased efforts to achieve sustainable management of this natural resource. Since stable isotope signatures indicate the recharge areas to be located in the mountains surrounding the valley, these efforts must not be limited to the central part of the valley where most of the abstraction wells are located.

     

Blind Source Separation for Compositional Time Series

Many geological phenomena are regularly measured over time to follow developments and changes. For many of these phenomena, the absolute values are not of interest, but rather the relative information, which means that the data are compositional time series. Thus, the serial nature and the compositional geometry should be considered when analyzing the data. Multivariate time series are already challenging, especially if they are higher dimensional, and latent variable models are a popular way to deal with this kind of data. Blind source separation techniques are well-established latent factor models for time series, with many variants covering quite different time series models. Here, several such methods and their assumptions are reviewed, and it is shown how they can be applied to high-dimensional compositional time series. Also, a novel blind source separation method is suggested which is quite flexible regarding the assumptions of the latent time series. The methodology is illustrated using simulations and in an application to light absorbance data from water samples taken from a small stream in Lower Austria.

     

The curse of physiology—challenges and opportunities in the interpretation of geochemical data from mollusk shells

Physiology corrupts geochemical records of mollusk shells in many ways, e.g., by actively controlling the incorporation of trace elements in the skeleton. However, the effects of variable biomineralization rates and growth cessation have largely remained unconsidered. Mediated by endogenous timekeeping mechanisms, mollusks stop growing skeletal material on a regular basis ranging from ultradian to annual timescales. During growth cessation, the shells do not record environmental conditions. Shell growth also stops when environmental conditions are beyond the physiological tolerance of the organism, e.g., above and below genetically determined, species-specific thermal extremes where shell growth slows and eventually ceases. Such growth disruptions can occur at non-periodic time intervals. Due to growth retardations and halts, proxy records of mollusk shells are thus incomplete, and reconstructed environmental amplitudes prone to truncation. Furthermore, environmental records are biased toward the physiological optimum of the animal. Favorable environmental conditions increase shell growth, whereas adverse environmental conditions result in reduced shell production and lowered overall metabolism. Not least, the duration of the growing season and overall growth rate decrease as the mollusk grows older. Mathematical modeling approaches can significantly improve proxy records obtained from mollusk shells. For example, if the duration of growth cessation is known, it may be possible to model the missing environmental record. It is also fairly easy to account for age-related growth trends, or variable time-averaging in different portions of the shell. However, a major premise for a reliable interpretation of proxy records from a mollusk shell or other organisms secreting biogenic hard parts is a proper understanding of the physiology, and of course, a high-resolution record of the many different environmental factors that may influence physiology and shell growth. The present paper reviews examples from the literature, and unpublished data on how physiology influences geochemical proxy records from mollusk shells, and presents methods how to eliminate such adverse effects.     

Evaluation of daily precipitation in China from ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses

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Reduced Hamiltonian formalism for general-relativistic adiabatic fluids and applications

For the dynamics of general-relativistic adiabatic fluids a reduced Hamiltonian formalism is presented. For slowly moving fluids an approximation scheme is defined. The first steps of the scheme are worked out explicitly. Radiation damping and emission, and backscattering are discussed. The usefulness of the formalism for numerical relativity is pointed out.     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.