First-Order Chemistry in the Surface-Flux Layer

We have discussed the behavior of a non-conserved scalar in the stationary, horizontally homogeneous, neutral surface-flux layer and, on the basis of conventional second-order closure, derived analytic expressions for flux and for mean concentration of a gas, subjected to a first-order removal process. The analytic flux solution showed a clear deviation from the constant flux, characterizing a conserved scalar in the surface-flux layer. It decreases with height and is reduced by an order of magnitude of the surface flux at a height equal to about the typical mean distance a molecule can travel before destruction. The predicted mean concentration profile, however, shows only a small deviation from the logarithmic behavior of a conserved scalar. The solution is consistent with assuming a flux-gradient relationship with a turbulent diffusivity corrected by the Damköhler ratio, the ratio of a characteristic turbulent time scale and the scalar mean lifetime. We show that if we use only first-order closure and neglect the effect of the Damköhler ratio on the turbulent diffusivity we obtain another analytic solution for the profiles of the flux and the mean concentration which, from an experimental point of view, is indistinguishable from the first analytic solution. We have discussed two cases where the model should apply, namely NO which, by night, is irreversibly destroyed by interaction with mainly O₃ and the radioactive ²²⁰Rn. Only in the last case was it possible to find data to shed light on the validity of our predictions. The agreement seemed such that a falsification of our model was impossible. It is shown how the model can be used to predict the surface flux of ²²⁰Rn from measured concentration profiles.     

Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.     

Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.     

Politics of technology in the informal governance of destructive fishing in Spermonde,Indonesia

Technology has politics and plays a role in societal governance. This article explores the fishing community of Karanrang island (Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia) to consider how fishing technologies reinforce existing power structures in the local informal governance system. Informal governance actors deploy the politics of technology in order to manage a socially problematic and environmentally destructive fishing economy. In the punggawa-sawi system of patron-client relationships, fishers are economically dependent on patrons, who supply them with fishing technologies like boats, bombs, and cyanide. The patrons themselves are embedded in a complex governance network, encompassing corrupt police and officials, importers, and live food fish traders. The politics of technology contribute to maintaining the local informal governance system of patron-client relationships. This paper draws upon theories from science and technology studies and network governance to argue that although patron-client relationships are problematic in themselves, the politics of technology further maintain power imbalances.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.     

Market-driven organizational lock-in: A case study of a former first mover

ABSTRACT

The article addresses the question of how an innovative firm develops from being a first mover to an innovation laggard and whether this process can be reversed. Informed by the evolutionary perspective and path-dependence theory, the authors explore how a low-tech Norwegian firm in the oil and gas industry has lost its foothold as an innovator. They also employ the concept of organizational architecture as an analytical tool to investigate the agency for breaking organizational paths. Through participant observation and semi-structured interviews, their study revealed that the innovation activity of the case firm is in a state of lock-in following a path-dependence development. Product development in the firm is linked to incremental changes to existing products based on the feedback from the customer, and the process is characterized by knowledge exploitation rather than knowledge exploration. The article adds to the literature on path dependence by identifying how a strong market pull can be a driver for organizational path dependence and lock-in.     

Bathymetry,substrate and fishing areas of Southeast Atlantic high-seas seamounts

Most of the Southeast Atlantic Ocean is abyssal, and global bathymetries suggest that only ～3.2% of the areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ; also known as the high seas, as defined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS]) are shallower than 2 500 m. This study mapped bathymetry and characterised substrates in selected seamount summit areas, including several that have been or may become fishing areas. The southernmost location, the Schmitt-Ott Seamount, has exposed volcanic bedrock with surrounding flats covered by thin biogenic sediments and/or coral rubble that appears ancient. At Wüst, Vema, Valdivia and Ewing seamounts the basaltic base appears to be overlain by coral caps and other coral substrates (sheets, rubble). Adjacent summit plains have biogenic sediments of varying thickness. Vema has a flat, roughly circular summit, <100 m deep, with the shallowest point being a 22-m-deep summit knoll; the upper slopes have ancient coral framework, but the summit has a mixture of coralline and volcanic rock and coarse sediments, including extensive areas with coralline algae and kelp forests. Valdivia Bank is a 230-m-deep, flat, rocky area (～11 × 5 km), protruding steeply from the extensive multi-summit Valdivia subarea of the Walvis Ridge. The distribution of past fisheries in the Convention Area of the South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (SEAFO) was considered in relation to the new information on bathymetry and substrate.     

Scour below pipelines and around vertical piles due to second-order random waves plus a current

This paper provides a method by which the scour depth below pipelines and around single vertical piles for combined random waves plus current including effects of second-order wave asymmetry can be derived. Here the empirical formulas proposed by Sumer and Fredsøe [1996. Scour below pipelines in combined waves and current. In: Proceedings of the 15th OMAE Conference, Florence, Italy. Vol. 5, ASME, New York, pp. 595–602] for pipelines, and by Sumer and Fredsøe [2002. The mechanics of scour in the marine environment. World Scientific, Singapore] for vertical piles are used together with Stokes second-order wave theory by assuming the basic harmonic wave motion to be a stationary Gaussian narrow-band random process. Comparisons are made with the Sumer and Fredsøe [1996. Scour below pipelines in combined waves and current. In: Proceedings of the 15th OMAE Conference, Florence, Italy. Vol. 5, ASME, New York, pp. 595–602; 2001. Scour around pile in combined waves and current. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 127(5), 403–411] data for linear random waves plus current. An example of calculation is also presented.