Certainty, uncertainty, and the spatiality of disease: a West Nile Virus example

The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure other patterns and limit avenues of research.     

Living with floods: victims' perceptions in Beijiang, Guangdong, China

This study revealed the collective values of the flood victims in the Beijiang area, Guangdong, China, as a result of a hazardous flood in 1994. The victims were sceptical of large flood-prevention engineering structures. They believed that flooding was unavoidable, but by extending support networks, applying hazard-resistant designs, and developing loss-sharing adjustments the disastrous effects of a flood could be mitigated. Seemingly, victims were prepared to live with floods and adopted functional adjustments to lessen flood impact.     

Long-term changes in water quality and phytoplankton characteristics in port shelter, Hong Kong, from 1988-1998.

This study analysed monthly physico-chemical and phytoplankton data collected from 10 marine monitoring stations in Port Shelter Hong Kong, from 1988 to 1998. Cluster analysis based on all water quality parameters measured shows that the 10 monitoring stations can be grouped into three clusters: Cluster I consists of stations located in Outer Port Shelter; Cluster II consists of stations located in Inner Port Shelter and Cluster III consists of a single station in Hebe Heaven, a well-sheltered Bay in Inner Port Shelter. Factor analysis shows high positive loadings for nutrients and nutrient ratios in the first two factors of the three clusters, which indicates that the stations of the three clusters were primarily grouped according to their respective nutrient conditions. In Inner Port Shelter, and particularly Station PM5 in the sheltered Hebe Haven, the influence of surface runoff and pollution loading from the surrounding catchment area was apparent. Five stations located along a transect from Inner to Outer Port Shelter were selected for trend analysis. An increasing trend for temperature and a decreasing trend for pH are observed in all Stations except PM10 which is at the mouth of Port Shelter. The results of canonical analysis revealed that temperature and pH could also play an important role in determining the density and biovolume of the minor algal groups in Port Shelter.     

Evaluation of response and energy in actively controlled structures

A computational method of energy evaluation is derived to study the elastic responses and energy distribution of actively controlled single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) structures during earthquakes. Contrary to the common perception that applying active control force pumps energy into the structure, the applied control force can actually reduce the energy in the structure by reducing the input energy from earthquakes to the structure. In addition, applying control force can dissipate a large amount of energy in the structure when this control force is applied in the direction opposite to the displacement and velocity responses. To demonstrate this energy mechanism in active controlled structures, the two most popular control algorithms, optimal linear control (OLC) and instantaneous optimal control (IOC) algorithms, are used to calculate the control response and energy spectra. One‐step time delay is incorporated into the algorithms to take into consideration the practical aspect of active control. The effects of different earthquakes and damping ratios on control energy and response spectra are studied. These studies show that both OLC and IOC are very effective in reducing the structural displacement and velocity responses by reducing the input earthquake energy as well as dissipating a large amount of energy in the structure. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effectiveness of structural control based on control energy perspectives

A computational algorithm for maximizing the control efficiency in actively controlling the elastic structural responses during earthquake is proposed. Study of optimal linear control using a single degree of freedom shows that applying active control is very effective in reducing the structural displacement and velocity responses for long‐period structures, but at the same time it has an adverse effect in increasing the absolute acceleration response. The extent of this adverse effect reduces the effectiveness of the control system, and therefore it poses a limit on the maximum control force in order to provide maximum control efficiency. In view of this shortcoming, maximum control energy dissipation is used to define the most effective optimal linear control law. Less displacement and velocity response are expected as larger control force is applied, but there is always a limit that maximum control energy can be dissipated. This study shows that this limit depends on the structural characteristics as well as the input ground motion, and a general trend is that the maximum control energy decreases as damping increases. Finally, application of the proposed algorithm on a six‐storey hospital building is presented to show the effectiveness of using optimal linear control on a multi‐degree‐of‐freedom system from the control energy perspectives. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

System-wide submerged aquatic vegetation model for Chesapeake Bay

A predictive model of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) biomass is coupled to a eutrophication model of Chesapeake Bay. Domain of the model includes the mainstem of the bay as well as tidal portions of major embayments and tributaries. Three SAV communities are modeled: ZOSTERA, RUPPIA, and FRESHWATER. The model successfully computes the spatial distribution and abundance of SAV for the period 1985–1994. Spatial distribution is primarily determined by computed light attenuation. Sensivitity analysis to reductions in nutrient and solids loads indicates nutrient controls will enhance abundance primarily in areas that presently support SAV. Restoration of SAV to areas in which it does not presently exist requires solids controls, alone or in combination with nutrient controls. For regions in which SAV populations exist at the refuge level or greater, improvements in SAV abundance are expected within 2 to 10 years of load reductions. For regions in which no refuge population exists, recovery time is unpredictable and will depend on propagule supply.     

Response of estuarine marsh vegetation to interannual variations in precipitation

The response of deltaic emergent marsh vegetation to increases in precipitation was examined over a 14-mo period at three sites in the lower Nueces Estuary in south Texas. At all three sites, significant changes in plant biomass, percent cover, and allocation of aboveground and belowground tissues were associated with more than double the rainfall in late winter and early spring 1992 compared to the previous year and the 50-yr average for this region. Water column salinities, which ranged from 10‰ to 35‰ at all three sites in 1991, remained below 10‰ through August 1992. Significant changes in marsh vegetative structure included decreases in bare space, increases in the percent cover and aboveground biomass of a relatively less salt tolerant halophytes (Borrichia frutescens), and significant increases in root:shoot ratios inB. frutescens, Batis maritima andSuaeda linearis (inSalicornia virginica root:shoot ratios decreased significantly). Higher precipitation generally led to an overall increase in the biomass of most marsh perennials, but these increases were not statistically significant. For one species,Lycium carolinianum, additional rainfall extended its growing season through August 1992, 2 mo longer than in the previous year. The expansion (+58%) ofB. frutescens at one site was also coincident with the significant loss ofB. maritima, whose cover decreased nearly 20%. In an ecological context, these responses suggest that precipitation events in arid environments may be considered a major physical disturbance that can result in large changes in the composition and relative abundance of emergent vascular plants over a relatively short period. The long-term significance of these changes is unknown and demonstrates the value of ecological studies that are conducted over several years for a more complete understanding of the dynamic processes that regulate marsh productivity.     

Photosynthetic production and biomass of the subtropical seagrass halodule wrightii along an estuarine gradient

Seasonal patterns of aboveground and belowground biomass, leaf chlorophyll (chl) content, and in situ differences in photosynthetic parameters were examined in the shoal grass Halodule wrightii along an estuarine gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico. Continuous measurements of biomass were collected over a 5-yr period (1989–1994) with respect to several abiotic factors in three estuarine systems that were characterized by significant differences in salinity and ambient dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; NO₂ ^?+NO₃ ^?) regimes that ranged from 5–25‰ (0–80 μM DIN) in the Guadalupe estuary to 35–55‰ (0–9 μM DIN) in the upper Laguna Madre, Photosynthesis versus irradiance (P vs. I) parameters, measured from December 1989 to April 1991, showed no significant differences among the three sites, and there were no significant differences in leaf chlorophyll content and chl a:b ratios among sites over the entire 5-yr period. Saturation irradiance in Halodule wrightii is estimated at 319 μmoles photons m^?2 s^?1 based on measurements collected at the three sites over a 2-yr period. No strong seasonal variations were observed in total plant biomass, but root:shoot ratios (RSR) showed a clear pattern of maximum RSR values in winter and minimum values in summer. There were no significant differences in RSR among sites, and no consistent correlations could be established between plant parameters and sediment porewater NH₄ ⁺, salinity, or temperature. Sediment porewater NH₄ ⁺ values generally ranged from 50 μM to 400 μM (average 130–150 μM) but could not be correlated with significant differences in sediment composition between the sites. The high productivity of Halodule wrightii under a variety of light, nutrient, and salinity conditions explains its ubiquitous distribution and opportunistic strategy as a colonizing species. However, the persistence of a dense algal bloom in Laguna Madre coincident with low DIN levels (<5 μM) contradicts previously accepted relationships on nutrient stimulation of algal growth, and provides strong evidence that water quality parameters for estuarine seagrasses are decidedly estuarine-specific. Consequently, a knowledge of the long-term history of estuarine systems is critical to habitat managers, who are required to establish minimum water quality criteria for the protection of submerged aquatic vegetation in estuarine systems. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00028     

Active control of the seismic response of structures by combined use of base isolation and absorbing boundaries

The relative advantages of several control strategies to reduce the seismic response of multi-storey structures are studied. The strategies involve the separate or combined use of passive base isolation mechanisms and active control forces. The base isolation mechanism is modelled as an equivalent linear soft storey with high damping. The active control forces are selected so that an absorbing boundary is obtained at the top of the structure and non-reflecting or reflecting boundaries are obtained at the base of the building. It is found that the best results are obtained when a passive base isolation system is combined with an active absorbing boundary placed at the top of the building. However, the incremental gains resulting from adding a base isolation system to a structure already controlled by a roof-top active absorbing boundary are significant only for relatively soft base isolation systems. Also, the incremental gains appear to decrease as the number of storeys of the structure increases.