National contributions to climate change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target

Globally, agriculture and related land use change contributed about 17% of the world’s anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 (8.4 GtCO₂e yr^?1), making GHG mitigation in the agriculture sector critical to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article proposes a range of country-level targets for mitigation of agricultural emissions by allocating a global target according to five approaches to effort-sharing for climate change mitigation: responsibility, capability, equality, responsibility-capability-need and equal cumulative per capita emissions. Allocating mitigation targets according to responsibility for total historical emissions or capability to mitigate assigned large targets for agricultural emission reductions to North America, Europe and China. Targets based on responsibility for historical agricultural emissions resulted in a relatively even distribution of targets among countries and regions. Meanwhile, targets based on equal future agricultural emissions per capita or equal per capita cumulative emissions assigned very large mitigation targets to countries with large agricultural economies, while allowing some densely populated countries to increase agricultural emissions. There is no single ‘correct’ framework for allocating a global mitigation goal. Instead, using these approaches as a set provides a transparent, scientific basis for countries to inform and help assess the significance of their commitments to reducing emissions from the agriculture sector.

Key policy insights

• Meeting the Paris Agreement 2°C goal will require global mitigation of agricultural non-CO₂ emissions of approximately 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 by 2030.

• Allocating this 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 according to various effort-sharing approaches, it is found that countries will need to mitigate agricultural business-as-usual emissions in 2030 by a median of 10%. Targets vary widely with criteria used for allocation.

• The targets calculated here are in line with the ambition of the few countries (primarily in Africa) that included mitigation targets for the agriculture sector in their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions.

• For agriculture to contribute to meeting the 2°C or 1.5°C targets, countries will need to be ambitious in pursuing emission reductions. Technology development and transfer will be particularly important.

     

The vertical profile of concentration fluctuations in near-surface plumes

Field experiments on concentration fluctuations have frequently measured horizontal cross-sections of fluctuation statistics through plumes at fixed heights near the surface, but have not considered the effect of height above the ground in any detail. A set of tracer experiments designed to measure vertical profiles of concentration fluctuations in plumes, with a range of source heights, is described, and profiles of statistics are presented. Considerable variation of the statistics with both source and detector height is found. Near the surface, fluctuation intensity is a minimum and the time and length scales of the fluctuations are greatly increased. Profiles are consistent with the idea that concentration fluctuations near the surface are like those higher up at a greater distance from the source. Lowering the source height reduces the fluctuation intensity at all heights, and also alters the form of the concentration PDF. Results may be explained by the reduced length scale of sheargenerated turbulence near the surface causing enhanced small-scale mixing, which rapidly smooths out much of the fine structure with the plume.     

Resource taxation and sustainability: A CGE model of the Czech Republic

Resource use by a country is considered in the context of a production relationship. Resources include natural, produced, and human capital. The taxation of each of these resource groups has an impact on the efficient use of these inputs through changes in the relative prices. A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Czech Republic is used to evaluate the impact that various revenue neutral tax structures have on the allocation of economic activity throughout the economy. A Hicksian welfare measure is used to determine the impact on society’s welfare of revenue neutral shifts in taxes. The results demonstrate that the change in the tax structure will result in a welfare improvement by as much as 5% for the Czech Republic. The results provide insight into the role that “getting the prices right” has on sustainability. Although the term “sustainable development” was first introduced in a report by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources in 1980 it did not gain significant notoriety until the Brundtland Commission report in 1987. For a more detailed discussion see Jamieson, 1998.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction

In this paper, we construct a time series known as the Group Sunspot Number. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be more internally self-consistent (i.e., less dependent upon seeing the tiniest spots) and less noisy than the Wolf Sunspot Number. It uses the number of sunspot groups observed, rather than groups and individual sunspots. Daily, monthly, and yearly means are derived from 1610 to the present. The Group Sunspot Numbers use 65941 observations from 117 observers active before 1874 that were not used by Wolf in constructing his time series. Hence, we have calculated daily values of solar activity on 111358 days for 1610–1995, compared to 66168 days for the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have estimates of their random and systematic errors tabulated. The generation and preliminary analysis of the Group Sunspot Numbers allow us to make several conclusions: (1) Solar activity before 1882 is lower than generally assumed and consequently solar activity in the last few decades is higher than it has been for several centuries. (2) There was a solar activity peak in 1801 and not 1805 so there is no long anomalous cycle of 17 years as reported in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The longest cycle now lasts no more than 15 years. (3) The Wolf Sunspot Numbers have many inhomogeneities in them arising from observer noise and this noise affects the daily, monthly, and yearly means. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have observer noise, but it is considerably less than the noise in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be similar to the Wolf Sunspot Number, but, even if both indices had perfect inputs, some differences are expected, primarily in the daily values.     

The Evolution of the Stable and Unstable Manifold of an Equilibrium Point

We consider the evolution of the stable and unstable manifolds of an equilibrium point of a Hamiltonian system of two degrees of freedom which depends on a parameter,ν. The eigenvalues of the linearized system are complex for ν < 0 and purely imaginary for ν > 0. Thus for ν < 0 the equilibrium has a two‐dimensional stable manifold and a two‐dimensional unstable manifold, but for ν > 0 these stable and unstable manifolds are gone. We study the system defined by the truncated generic normal form in this situation. One of two things happens depending on the sign of a certain quantity in the normal form expansion. In one case the two families detach as a single invariant manifold and recedes from the equilibrium as ν tends away from 0 through positive values. In the other case the stable and unstable manifold are globally connected for ν < 0 and the whole structure of these manifolds shrinks to the equilibrium as ν → 0 and disappears. These considerations have interesting implications about Strömgren's conjecture in celestial mechanics and the blue sky catastrophe of Devaney.     

Environmental magnetic record of Antarctic palaeoclimate from Eocene/Oligocene glaciomarine sediments, Victoria Land Basin

The onset of continent-wide glaciation in Antarctica is still poorly understood, despite being one of the most important palaeoclimatic events in the Cenozoic. The Eocene/Oligocene boundary interval has recently been recognized as a critical time for Antarctic climatic evolution, and it may mark the preglacial–glacial transition. Magnetic susceptibility, intensity of natural and artificial remanences, hysteresis parameters and magnetic anisotropy of the lower half (late Eocene/early Oligocene) of the CIROS-1 core (from McMurdo Sound, Antarctica) reveal alternating intervals of high and low magnetic mineral concentrations that do not correspond to lithostratigraphic units in the core. Pseudo-single-domain magnetite is the main magnetic mineral throughout the sequence, and sharp changes in magnetite concentration match changes in clay mineralogy beneath and at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. The detrital magnetite originated from weathering of the Ferrar Group (which comprises basic extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks). Weathering processes and input of magnetite to the Victoria Land Basin were intense during periods when the Antarctic climate was warmer than today, but during intervals when the climate was relatively cool, chemical weathering of the Ferrar Group was suppressed and input of detrital magnetite to the Victoria Land Basin decreased. Our results also indicate that a cold and dry climate was not established in Antarctica until the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, with major ice sheet growth occurring at the early/late Oligocene boundary. Some earlier cold intervals are identified, which indicate that climate had begun to deteriorate by the middle/late Eocene boundary.     

A new look at wolf sunspot numbers in the late 1700's

Long-term homogeneous observations of solar activity or many solar cycles are essential for investigating many problems in solar physics and climatology. The one key parameter used in most long-term studies is the Wolf sunspot number, which is susceptible to observer bias, particularly because it is highly sensitive to the observer's ability to see the smallest sunspots. In this paper we show how the Wolf sunspot number can be derived from the number of sunspot groups alone. We utilize this approach to obtain a Group Wolf number. This technique has advantages over the classical method of determining the Wolf number because corrections for observer differences are reduced and long-term self-consistent time series can be developed. The level of activity can be calculated to an accuracy of ± 5% using this method. Applying the technique to Christian Horrebow's observations of solar cycles 1, 2, and 3 (1761–1777), we find that the standard Wolf numbers are nearly homogeneous with sunspot numbers measured from 1875 to 1976 except the peak of solar cycle 2 is too low by 30%. This result suggests that further analyses of early sunspot observations could lead to significant improvements in the uniformity of the measurements of solar activity. Such improvements could have important impacts upon our understanding of long-term variations in solar activity, such as the Gleissberg cycle, or secular variations in the Earth's climate.     

Numerical solution of the time-dependent heat energy equations for the magnetosphere

A new solution of the magnetospheric heat equations capable of covering the whole region from 300 km along a field line to the equatorial plane has been achieved by adapting the searching procedure of Murphy (1974). It has been found that the protonospheric heat reservoir is sufficient to maintain T_e >T_n down to the height of the F2-peak electron density all through the night at mid-latitudes. Full solution of the equations has also shown that T_i >T_e in the protonosphere at night and the ions constitute a significant source of heat for the electrons.     

Why the Sun may appear oblate

If the Sun loses angular momentum from its core, due to core contraction, into the solar wind at the observed rate, then an 0.7 day rotational period for the core of the Sun is required for temporal equilibrium. The rotational power released in the core contraction process can equal the observed magnetic energy released in the solar activity cycle if the Sun's core rotates with a period near 1.4 to 4 days. The rotational power released from a rotating object is , where is the torque on the object and is its angular velocity. Fitting this to the solar wind torque and core rotation rate provides an 0.5 to 5 day rotation period for the Sun's core. A gravitational Pannekoek-Rosseland electric field in the Sun makes the Ferraro theorem inapplicable in such a way that rather than a constant angular velocity with radius, an inverse square radial dependence occurs. This results in a two day rotational period for the region in the Sun where most of the angular momentum resides. The consistency of the above four methods suggests that the Sun's observed oblateness is due to a rapidly rotating solar core. The oblateness of the photosphere is estimated to be near 3.4×10^–5.