Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

Using simulated hydrologic response to revisit the 1973 Lerida Court landslide

Hydrologically driven mass wasting in the form of landslides on steep slopes is a worldwide occurrence. High-profile events in, for example, Brazil, Chile, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela during the last three decades all clearly illustrate, based upon significant losses of life and property, that hydrologically driven slope instability in developed (urban) areas can be a major geologic/environmental hazard. The focus of this study is the 1973 hydrologically driven Lerida Court landslide in Portola Valley, CA, USA. Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation, with the comprehensive Integrated Hydrology Model, was employed to forensically estimate the spatiotemporal pore pressure distributions for the Lerida Court site. Slope stability, driven by the simulated pore pressure dynamics, was estimated for the Lerida Court site with the infinite slope/Factor of Safety approach. The pore pressure dynamics for the Lerida Court site were reasonably captured by the hydrologic-response simulation. The estimated time of slope failure for the Lerida Court site compares well with field observations. A recommendation is made that hydrologically driven slope stability estimates including variably saturated subsurface flow be standard protocol for development sites in steep urban settings.     

Rare earth element geochemistry of potassic lavas from the Birunga and Toro-Ankole regions of Uganda,Africa

Neutron activation determination of La, Ce, Sm, Eu, Tb, Yb, Lu, Ta, Hf, Sc, Co and Th in potassic lavas from the Birunga and Toro-Ankole regions show that the rocks are characterized by high rare earth element (REE) contents (161–754 ppm) and form two groups based upon differing La/Yb ratios. One group is made up of katungite, ugandite and mafurite with La/Yb =146–312, and the other of rocks of the leucitite and phonolitic tephrite series, La/Yb =30–56. The trace element content of the ugandite group is similar to that of kimberlites. The data do not indicate any trends of differentiation or simple relationships between the two groups of rocks, although katungite is unlikely to be parental to rocks of lower La/Yb ratios. It is unlikely that in terms of La/Yb ratios that partial melting of mica-garnet-lherzolite mantle can form katungite because of the very small amounts of partial melting required (0.2%), although the La/Yb ratios of 150–200 (ugandites, mafurites) and 30–60 (leucitites, phonolitic tephrites) can be accounted for by 0.3–1.5% and 1–9% melting respectively, if the REE are then concentrated without further La and Yb fractionation. Partial melting of mantle which has been metasomatized by alkaline earths and REE bearing fluids or mixing of carbonatite and nephelenite are also compatable with the observed geochemistry of the lavas. It is considered that gas transfer processes which selectively enrich the light REE may have obscured REE evidence pertaining to early partial melting and/or differentiation processes and therefore that REE geochemistry is of little use in determining the petrogenetic processes involved in the formation of potassic lavas.     

Quantitative evaluation of the seasonal variations in climate model cloud regimes

An extended cloud-clustering method to assess the seasonal variation of clouds is applied to five CMIP5 models. The seasonal variation of the total cloud radiative effect (CRE) is dominated by variations in the relative frequency of occurrence of the different cloud regimes. Seasonal variations of the CRE within the individual regimes contribute much less. This is the case for both observations, models and model errors. The error in the seasonal variation of cloud regimes, and its breakdown into mean amplitude and time varying components, are quantified with a new metric. The seasonal variation of the CRE of the cloud regimes is relatively well simulated by the models in the tropics, but less well in the extra-tropics. The stratocumulus regime has the largest seasonal variation of shortwave CRE in the tropics, despite having a small magnitude in the climatological mean. Most of the models capture the temporal variation of the CRE reasonably well, with the main differences between models coming from the variation in amplitude. In the extra-tropics, most models fail to correctly represent both the amplitude and time variation of the CRE of congestus, frontal and stratocumulus regimes. The annual mean climatology of the CRE and its amplitude in the seasonal variation are both underestimated for the anvil regime in the tropics, the cirrus regime and the congestus regime in the extra-tropics. The models in this study that best capture the seasonal variation of the cloud regimes tend to have higher climate sensitivities.     

A feather hydrogen isoscape for Mexico

Developing useful biological isoscapes for areas of the world is a priority. This is the case for Mexico that hosts a large percentage of North America's Neotropical migrant birds. Here we investigated the use of House Sparrow (Passer domesticus) feathers to create a spatially explicit feather deuterium isoscape for that country using samples (n = 461) that were collected across Mexico. Considerable and useful spatial hydrogen isotopic structure was observed, suggesting that isotopes may be a potential forensic tool for evaluating origins of Mexican derived fauna and flora. The most positive feather δD values occurred in the northeast and most negative in the south-central part of the country, roughly matching δD patterns observed in groundwater. A weak negative isotopic relationship was found with altitude in both the Pacific and Atlantic drainage systems. The most parsimonious model describing isotopic spatial variation in feathers between 300 and 3000 m a.s.l. included groundwater δD (δD_gw; precipitation proxy), sex, amount of precipitation, and the coefficient of variation in amount of precipitation. Overall, δD_gw was a poor predictor of sparrow δD_f values for all of Mexico. However, this relationship was considerably strengthened when we considered sex separately, removed the Baja peninsula from our sample, and considered the Atlantic and Pacific drainage basins separately. The strongest relationship between δD_gw and δD_f was found for female sparrows in the Atlantic drainage basin (r² = 0.464). We recommend that researchers interested in inferring origins of migratory birds and other animals in Mexico create species specific isotopic basemaps that may be guided by the isotopic patterns we have observed for House Sparrows and groundwater.     

On the interactions between planetary geostrophy and mesoscale eddies

Multiscale asymptotics are used to derive three systems of equations connecting the planetary geostrophic (PG) equations for gyre-scale flow to a quasigeostrophic (QG) equation set for mesoscale eddies. Pedlosky (1984), following similar analysis, found eddy buoyancy fluxes to have only a small effect on the large-scale flow; however, numerical simulations disagree. While the impact of eddies is relatively small in most regions, in keeping with Pedlosky’s result, eddies have a significant effect on the mean flow in the vicinity of strong, narrow currents.First, the multiple-scales analysis of Pedlosky is reviewed and amplified. Novel results of this analysis include new multiple-scales models connecting large-scale PG equations to sets of QG eddy equations. However, only introducing anisotropic scaling of the large-scale coordinates allows us to derive a model with strong two-way coupling between the QG eddies and the PG mean flow. This finding reconciles the analysis with simulations, viz. that strong two-way coupling is observed in the vicinity of anisotropic features of the mean flow like boundary currents and jets. The relevant coupling terms are shown to be eddy buoyancy fluxes. Using the Gent-McWilliams parameterization to approximate these fluxes allows solution of the PG equations with closed tracer fluxes in a closed domain, which is not possible without mesoscale eddy (or other small-scale) effects. The boundary layer width is comparable to an eddy mixing length when the typical eddy velocity is taken to be the long Rossby wave phase speed, which is the same result found by Fox-Kemper and Ferrari (2009) in a reduced gravity layer.     

The climate of Scotland over the last 5000 years inferred from multiproxy peatland records: inter‐site correlations and regional variability

The mid to late‐Holocene climates of most of Scotland have been reconstructed from seven peat bogs located across north–south and east–west geographical and climatological gradients. The main techniques used for palaeoclimatic reconstruction were plant macrofossil, colorimetric humification, and testate amoebae analyses, which were supported by a radiocarbon‐based chronology, aided by markers such as tephra isochrons and recent rises in pine pollen and in spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs). Field stratigraphy was undertaken at each site in order to show that the changes detected within the peat profiles were replicable. Proxy climate records were reconstructed using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the plant macrofossil data and a mean water table depth transfer function on the testate amoebae data. These reconstructions, coupled with the humification data, were standardised for each site and used to produce a composite record of bog surface wetness (BSW) from each site. The results show coherent wet and dry phases over the last 5000 years and suggest regional differences in climate across Scotland, specifically between northern and southern Scotland. Distinct climatic cycles are identified, all of which record a millennial‐scale periodicity which can be correlated with previously identified marine and ice core Holocene cycles. The key role of the macrofossil remains of Sphagnum imbricatum, a taxon now extinct on many sites, is discussed in relation to the identified climatic shifts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preserving the unpreservable: a lost world rediscovered at Christian Malford, UK

The small village of Christian Malford, Wiltshire (UK) is known to palaeontologists the world over because of the chance discovery of an astonishing fossil bonanza in the mid-nineteenth century. Pits in the Jurassic Oxford Clay yielded thousands of specimens of exquisitely preserved ammonites, fish and crustaceans, but became most famous for squid-like cephalopods and belemnites (collectively termed coleoids) with fossilized soft-parts. The precise location of the find has remained obscure, until now, and a new attempt is underway to understand the ancient environment that triggered this unusual preservation.     

Interactions between groundwater and surface water in a virginia coastal plain watershed. 1. Hydrological flowpaths

A field study of surface water and groundwater interactions during baseflow and stormflow conditions was performed at the Reedy Creek watershed in the Virginia Coastal Plain. Three estimates of the average saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) of the unconfined aquifer were in reasonable agreement (ranging from 0.0033 to 0.010 cm/s), indicating that baseflow in the creek is entirely from the drainage of shallow groundwater from the relatively thin (1–6 m thick) unconfined aquifer. This relatively permeable surficial aquifer was found to be underlain by dark, olive grey, clay-silt and diatomaceous Miocene deposits of low permeability known as the Calvert Formation, which is believed to function as a confining bed in the area. A chemical hydrograph separation technique was used to resolve the contributions of [old] (pre-event) and [new] (event) water to stormflow. Results from a major rainstorm indicated that old water dominated the stormflow response of the watershed, although the new water contribution approached 40% at the hydrograph peak. Stormflow at Reedy Creek appears to result from saturation overland flow from variable source areas which include the stream channels and a significant part of the riparian wetland area. This response appears to be attributable to the transient dynamics of the shallow groundwater flow system and to the formation of localized groundwater mounds which raise the water-table to the wetland surface.