Critical evaluation of the customisation process of the UNDRR disaster resilience scorecard for cities to earthquake-induced soil liquefaction disaster events

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - As cities become larger and more densely populated the impacts of major earthquake events on city communities become more severe. Improving community resilience...     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

On the interactions between planetary geostrophy and mesoscale eddies

Multiscale asymptotics are used to derive three systems of equations connecting the planetary geostrophic (PG) equations for gyre-scale flow to a quasigeostrophic (QG) equation set for mesoscale eddies. Pedlosky (1984), following similar analysis, found eddy buoyancy fluxes to have only a small effect on the large-scale flow; however, numerical simulations disagree. While the impact of eddies is relatively small in most regions, in keeping with Pedlosky’s result, eddies have a significant effect on the mean flow in the vicinity of strong, narrow currents.First, the multiple-scales analysis of Pedlosky is reviewed and amplified. Novel results of this analysis include new multiple-scales models connecting large-scale PG equations to sets of QG eddy equations. However, only introducing anisotropic scaling of the large-scale coordinates allows us to derive a model with strong two-way coupling between the QG eddies and the PG mean flow. This finding reconciles the analysis with simulations, viz. that strong two-way coupling is observed in the vicinity of anisotropic features of the mean flow like boundary currents and jets. The relevant coupling terms are shown to be eddy buoyancy fluxes. Using the Gent-McWilliams parameterization to approximate these fluxes allows solution of the PG equations with closed tracer fluxes in a closed domain, which is not possible without mesoscale eddy (or other small-scale) effects. The boundary layer width is comparable to an eddy mixing length when the typical eddy velocity is taken to be the long Rossby wave phase speed, which is the same result found by Fox-Kemper and Ferrari (2009) in a reduced gravity layer.     

The climate of Scotland over the last 5000 years inferred from multiproxy peatland records: inter‐site correlations and regional variability

The mid to late‐Holocene climates of most of Scotland have been reconstructed from seven peat bogs located across north–south and east–west geographical and climatological gradients. The main techniques used for palaeoclimatic reconstruction were plant macrofossil, colorimetric humification, and testate amoebae analyses, which were supported by a radiocarbon‐based chronology, aided by markers such as tephra isochrons and recent rises in pine pollen and in spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs). Field stratigraphy was undertaken at each site in order to show that the changes detected within the peat profiles were replicable. Proxy climate records were reconstructed using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the plant macrofossil data and a mean water table depth transfer function on the testate amoebae data. These reconstructions, coupled with the humification data, were standardised for each site and used to produce a composite record of bog surface wetness (BSW) from each site. The results show coherent wet and dry phases over the last 5000 years and suggest regional differences in climate across Scotland, specifically between northern and southern Scotland. Distinct climatic cycles are identified, all of which record a millennial‐scale periodicity which can be correlated with previously identified marine and ice core Holocene cycles. The key role of the macrofossil remains of Sphagnum imbricatum, a taxon now extinct on many sites, is discussed in relation to the identified climatic shifts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preserving the unpreservable: a lost world rediscovered at Christian Malford, UK

The small village of Christian Malford, Wiltshire (UK) is known to palaeontologists the world over because of the chance discovery of an astonishing fossil bonanza in the mid-nineteenth century. Pits in the Jurassic Oxford Clay yielded thousands of specimens of exquisitely preserved ammonites, fish and crustaceans, but became most famous for squid-like cephalopods and belemnites (collectively termed coleoids) with fossilized soft-parts. The precise location of the find has remained obscure, until now, and a new attempt is underway to understand the ancient environment that triggered this unusual preservation.     

Interactions between groundwater and surface water in a virginia coastal plain watershed. 1. Hydrological flowpaths

A field study of surface water and groundwater interactions during baseflow and stormflow conditions was performed at the Reedy Creek watershed in the Virginia Coastal Plain. Three estimates of the average saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) of the unconfined aquifer were in reasonable agreement (ranging from 0.0033 to 0.010 cm/s), indicating that baseflow in the creek is entirely from the drainage of shallow groundwater from the relatively thin (1–6 m thick) unconfined aquifer. This relatively permeable surficial aquifer was found to be underlain by dark, olive grey, clay-silt and diatomaceous Miocene deposits of low permeability known as the Calvert Formation, which is believed to function as a confining bed in the area. A chemical hydrograph separation technique was used to resolve the contributions of [old] (pre-event) and [new] (event) water to stormflow. Results from a major rainstorm indicated that old water dominated the stormflow response of the watershed, although the new water contribution approached 40% at the hydrograph peak. Stormflow at Reedy Creek appears to result from saturation overland flow from variable source areas which include the stream channels and a significant part of the riparian wetland area. This response appears to be attributable to the transient dynamics of the shallow groundwater flow system and to the formation of localized groundwater mounds which raise the water-table to the wetland surface.     

Getting Lost in Cities: Spatial Patterns of Phonetically Confusing Street Names

A large street network is likely to contain duplicated or similar sounding street names. These conflicts can cause confusion in communication between people or in machine‐human interaction. Municipal authorities have begun to see the importance of uncovering these existing street name conflicts and mitigating future ones, for improved record keeping, emergency response, etc. However the commonly used Soundex phonetic algorithm is generally considered to produce poor similarity results in terms of uncovering street name conflicts. This study reports on a new fusion algorithm that combines phonetic methods and approximate string matching for street names, weighted by street type suffix (Avenue, Boulevard, Court, etc.), to quantitatively measure the collision/confusion potential presented by a pair of streets. This algorithm is then applied to the entire street network in Greater Melbourne, Australia, and the pattern of collisions at various spatial scales, and within municipalities, is mapped. The goal of this work is to produce better tools that can aid policy makers, administrators and industries dealing with location‐based services to make better decisions when assigning and disambiguating street names.     

Public engagement on solar radiation management and why it needs to happen now

There have been a number of calls for public engagement in geoengineering in recent years. However, there has been limited discussion of why the public should have a say or what the public can be expected to contribute to geoengineering discussions. We explore how public engagement can contribute to the research, development, and governance of one branch of geoengineering, solar radiation management (SRM), in three key ways: 1. by fulfilling ethical requirements for the inclusion of affected parties in democratic decision making processes; 2. by contributing to improved dialogue and trust between scientists and the public; and 3. by ensuring that decisions about SRM research and possible deployment are informed by a broad set of societal interests, values, and framings. Finally, we argue that, despite the nascent state of many SRM technologies, the time is right for the public to participate in engagement processes.