Climate Protection Strategies: International Allocation and Distribution Effects

In international climate policy discussions, one of the centralissues for medium- to long run climate protection strategiesis the uncertainty about the costs and the distributional effectsof specific unilateral or multilateral emission reductions. Thispaper looks at the world-wide effects of climate protection strategieson the allocation of resources, on economic growth in differentregions, and on the regional welfare effects. The analysis isbased on a global recursively dynamic, multi-region, multi-sectorcomputable general equilibrium model parameterized accordingto the ICLIPS (Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies)integrated assessment model. The simulations show that nationalclimate policies will have important international repercussions.It is therefore important to consider international allocationeffects in the analysis of national climate protection strategies.The welfare costs of greenhouse gas emission reductions risemore than proportionally with lower emission targets. The analysisof the carbon leakage rate indicates that most of the leakagerapidly disappears if emission reduction moves towards an efficientdistribution of emission targets.     

Dione’s spectral and geological properties

We present a detailed analysis of the variations in spectral properties across the surface of Saturn’s satellite Dione using Cassini/VIMS data and their relationships to geological and/or morphological characteristics as seen in the Cassini/ISS images. This analysis focuses on a local region on Dione’s anti-saturnian hemisphere that was observed by VIMS with high spatial resolution during orbit 16 in October 2005. The results are incorporated into a global context provided by VIMS data acquired within Cassini’s first 50 orbits. Our results show that Dione’s surface is dominated by at least one global process. Bombardment by magnetospheric particles is consistent with the concentration of dark material and enhanced CO₂ absorption on the trailing hemisphere of Dione independent of the geology. Local regions within this terrain indicate a special kind of resurfacing that probably is related to large-scale impact process. In contrast, the enhanced ice signature on the leading side is associated with the extended ejecta of the fresh impact crater Creusa (∼49°N/76°W). Although no geologically active regions could be identified, Dione’s tectonized regions observed with high spatial resolution partly show some clean H₂O ice implying that tectonic processes could have continued into more recent times.     

Chronic exposure of adults and embryos of Pandalus borealis to oil causes PAH accumulation, initiation of biomarker responses and an increase in larval mortality

Adult shrimps (Pandalus borealis) and their embryos were exposed to an oil-water dispersion (OWD) at concentrations of 0.015, 0.06 and 0.25 mg/L using a continuous flow system. Lysosomal membrane stability was analysed in haemocytes using the neutral red retention assay and an alkaline unwinding assay was used to measure DNA damage in hepatopancreas tissue. Exposure to oil induced concentration and time dependent biomarker responses in adult shrimps together with the accumulation of PAH in their tissues. Oil exposure of shrimp embryos caused increased mortality in the resultant larvae, even if the larvae were kept in clean water after hatching. There were minor differences observed in larval stage development times in the first part of the experiments. The fatty acid composition of embryos exposed to oil was different to that of non-exposed larvae. PAH tissue concentration and biomarker responses correlated to the reduced survival of the shrimp larvae.     

Routine analysis of sediment pore water of high ionic strength

Pore water of sediments plays an important role in aquatic systems as mediator and as the reactive zone between the sediment and surface water. Sediment pore waters with high ionic strength from acidified pit lakes were investigated to obtain information about the influence on the lake water quality. The analysis of soluble reactive phosphorus, nitrate, ammonium, silica, dissolved organic carbon, ferrous iron, sulfate, chloride, sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, manganese, and total dissolved iron was predetermined as the dataset required for evaluation of water quality. The data collection procedure was optimised by designing a methodology for stabilisation, dilution of pore water samples and adaptation of analytical methods. The developed methodology was evaluated with respect to the effort required in the laboratory under routine conditions. In the first round of analyses, 72% of 638 individual analyses from a random selection of pore water profiles were found to be within the calibration ranges. Remedial actions to handle the remaining 28% of invalid analytical results are exemplified. Differences between comparative analyses of some ions by continuous flow analysis, ion chromatography, and atomic emission spectroscopy were evaluated. The majority of results measured by ion chromatography differed on a highly significant level from results measured by atomic emission spectroscopy. Possible reasons, originating from the extreme sample matrix, are discussed. Finally, the designed methodology and the results of the method comparison are used to recommend the selection of analytical methods under specific conditions.     

Ocean iron fertilization: Why further research is needed

Despite large uncertainties in the fertilization efficiency, natural iron fertilization studies and some of the purposeful iron enrichment studies have demonstrated that Southern Ocean iron fertilization can lead to a significant export of carbon from the sea surface to the ocean interior. From an economic perspective the potential of ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is far from negligible in relation to other abatement options. Comparing the range of cost estimates to the range of estimates for forestation projects they are in the same order of magnitude, but OIF could provide more carbon credits even if high discount rates are used to account for potential leakage and non-permanence. However, the uncertainty about undesired adverse effects of purposeful iron fertilization on marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry has led to attempts to ban commercial and, to some extent, scientific experiments aimed at a better understanding of the processes involved, effectively precluding further consideration of this mitigation option. As regards the perspective of public international law, the pertinent agreements dealing with the protection of the marine environment indicate that OIF is to be considered as lawful if and to the extent to which it represents legitimate scientific research. In this respect, the precautionary principle can be used to balance the risks arising out of scientific OIF activities for the marine environment with the potential advantages relevant to the objectives of the climate change regime. As scientific OIF experiments involve only comparatively small negative impacts within a limited marine area, further scientific research must be permitted to explore the carbon sequestration potential of OIF in order to either reject this concept or integrate it into the flexible mechanisms contained in the Kyoto Protocol.     

Analytical model for the out‐of‐plane response of vertically spanning unreinforced masonry walls

An analytical model describing the flexural response of vertically spanning out‐of‐plane loaded unreinforced masonry walls is presented in this paper. The model is based on the second‐order Euler‐Bernoulli beam theory and captures important characteristics of the out‐of‐plane response of masonry walls that have been observed in experimental tests and from numerical studies but for which an analytical solution was still lacking: the onset and the evolution of cracking, the peak strength of the out‐of‐plane loaded walls, and the softening of the response due to P ?Δ effects. The model is validated against experimental results, and the comparison shows that the model captures both the prepeak and postpeak response of the walls. From the analytical model of the force‐displacement curve, a formula for the maximum out‐of‐plane strength of the walls is derived, which can be directly applied in engineering practice.     

Public perception of climate engineering and carbon capture and storage in Germany: survey evidence

Climate engineering (CE) and carbon capture and storage are controversial options for addressing climate change. This study compares public perception in Germany of three specific measures: solar radiation management (SRM) via stratospheric sulphate injection, large-scale afforestation, and carbon capture and storage sub-seabed (CCS-S). In a survey experiment we find that afforestation is most readily accepted as a measure for addressing climate change, followed by CCS-S and lastly SRM, which is widely rejected. Providing additional information decreases acceptance for all measures, but their ranking remains unchanged. The acceptance of all three measures is especially influenced by the perceived seriousness of climate change and by trust in institutions. Also, respondents dislike the measures more if they perceive them as a way of shirking responsibility for emissions or as an unconscionable manipulation of nature. Women react more negatively to information than men, whereas the level of education or the degree of intuitive vs reflective decision making does not influence the reaction to information.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Current projections suggest that the use of climate engineering (CE) technologies or carbon capture and storage (CCS) is necessary if global warming is to be kept well below 2°C. Our article focuses on the perspective of the general public and thus supplements the dialogue between policymakers, interest groups, and scientists on how to address climate change. We show that in Germany public acceptance of potentially effective measures such as SRM or CCS-S is low and decreases even more when additional information is provided. This implies that lack of public acceptance may turn out to be a bottleneck for future implementation. Ongoing research and development in connection with CCS-S and SRM requires continuous communication with, and involvement of, the public in order to obtain feedback and assess the public’s reservations about the measures. The low level of acceptance also implies that emission reduction should remain a priority in climate policy.