Long-term climate policy: international legal aspects of sector-based approaches

Abstract

The aim of this article is to discuss the international legal implications of a sector-based approach to long-term climate policy. Sector-based approaches have emerged as a possible way of engaging all the major emitters of greenhouse gases into the system. The article divides sectoral approaches into two main categories based on their legal relevance. Substantive sectoral models focus on ways of defining emission levels for global industry sectors. From the point of view of international law, substantive sectoral models could be integrated into the existing climate change regime if the Parties so agree. Procedural sectoral models focus on actors. Some procedural sectoral models envisage treaty regimes involving non-State actors, such as organizations representing global industry sectors undertaking to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The main focus of the article is on these models.     

Spatial distribution and seasonal variation in 18O/16O of modern precipitation and river water across the conterminous USA

We report a quantitative analysis of regional differences in the the oxygen isotope composition of river water and precipitation across the USA because data are now available to undertake a more geographically and temporally extensive analysis than was formerly possible. Maps of modern, mean annual δ¹⁸O values for both precipitation (δ¹⁸O_PPT) and river water (δ¹⁸O_RIV) across the 48 contiguous states of the USA have been generated using latitude and elevation as the primary predictors of stable isotope composition while also incorporating regional and local deviations based on available isotopic data. The difference between these two maps was calculated to determine regions where δ¹⁸O_RIV is significantly offset from local δ¹⁸O_PPT. Additional maps depicting seasonal and extreme values for δ¹⁸O_RIV and δ¹⁸O_PPT were also constructed. This exercise confirms the presence of regions characterized by differences in δ¹⁸O_RIV and δ¹⁸O_PPT and specifically identifies the magnitude and regional extent of these offsets. In particular, the Great Plains has δ¹⁸O_RIV values that are more positive than precipitation, while much of the western USA is characterized by significantly lower δ¹⁸O_RIV values in comparison with local δ¹⁸O_PPT. The most salient feature that emerged from this comparison is the ‘catchment effect’ for the rivers. Because river water is largely derived from precipitation that fell upstream of the sample locality (i.e. at higher elevations) δ¹⁸O_RIV values are often lower than local δ¹⁸O_PPT values, particularly in catchments with high‐elevation gradients. Seasonal patterns in the isotopic data substantiate the generally accepted notion that amplitudes of δ¹⁸O variation are greatly dampened in river water relative to those of local precipitation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arsenic redox transformation by humic substances and Fe minerals

The toxicity and mobility of the redox-active metalloid As strongly depends on its oxidation state, with As(III) (arsenite) being more toxic and mobile than As(V) (arsenate). It is, therefore, necessary to know the biogeochemical processes potentially influencing As redox state to understand and predict its environmental behavior. The first part of this presentation will discuss the quantification of As redox changes by pH-neutral mineral suspensions of goethite [α-Fe^IIIOOH] amended with Fe(II) using wet-chemical and synchrotron X-ray absorption (XANES) analysis (Amstaetter et al., 2010). First, it was found that goethite itself did not oxidize As(III). Second, in contrast to thermodynamic predictions, Fe(II)–goethite systems did not reduce As(V). However, surprisingly, rapid oxidation of As(III) to As(V) was observed in Fe(II)–goethite systems. Iron speciation and mineral analysis by Mössbauer spectroscopy showed rapid formation of ⁵⁷Fe–goethite after ⁵⁷Fe(II) addition and the formation of a so far unidentified additional Fe(II) phase. No other Fe(III) phase could be detected by Mössbauer spectroscopy, EXAFS, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction or high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. This suggests that reactive Fe(III) species form as an intermediate Fe(III) phase upon Fe(II) addition and electron transfer into bulk goethite but before crystallization of the newly formed Fe(III) as goethite.The second part of the presentation will show that semiquinone radicals produced during microbial or chemical reduction of a humic substance model quinone (AQDS, 9,10-anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonic acid) can react with As and change its redox state (Jiang et al., 2009). The results of these experiments showed that these semiquinone radicals are strong oxidants and oxidize arsenite to arsenate, thus decreasing As toxicity and mobility. The oxidation of As(III) depended strongly on pH. More arsenite (up to 67.3%) was oxidized at pH 11 compared to pH 7 (12.6% oxidation) and pH 3 (0.5% oxidation). In addition to As(III) oxidation by semiquinone radicals, hydroquinones that were also produced during quinone reduction, reduced As(V) to As(III) at neutral and acidic pH values (less than 12%) but not at alkaline pH. In an attempt to understand the observed redox reactions between As and reduced/oxidized quinones present in humic substances, the radical content in reduced AQDS solutions was quantified and Eh-pH diagrams were constructed. Both the radical quantification and the Eh-pH diagram allowed explaining the observed redox reactions between the reduced AQDS solutions and the As.In summary these studies indicate that in the simultaneous presence of Fe(III) oxyhydroxides, Fe(II), and humic substances as commonly observed in environments inhabited by Fe-reducing microorganisms, As(III) oxidation can occur. This potentially explains the presence of As(V) in reduced groundwater aquifers.     

Refinement of the time-space evolution of the giant Mio-Pliocene Río Blanco-Los Bronces porphyry Cu–Mo cluster, Central Chile: new U–Pb (SHRIMP II) and Re–Os geochronology and 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology data

Representing one of the largest known (estimated >5 Gt at 1 % Cu and 0.02 % Mo) porphyry system, the Río Blanco-Los Bronces deposit incorporates at least five hypabyssal intrusive and hydrothermal centres, extending for about 5 km from the Río Blanco and Los Bronces mines in the north, through the Don Luis mine, to the Sur Sur mine, La Americana and Los Sulfatos in the south. The new geochronology data, which now include data on different molybdenite vein types, confirm the U–Pb ages of the pre-mineralisation intrusions but slightly increase their age range from 8.8 to 8.2 Ma. The distinct magmatic pulses of the mineralisation-associated porphyritic intrusives (Late Porphyries) indicate an age interval instead of the previously suggested individual ages: the quartz monzonite porphyry ranges from 7.7 to 6.1 Ma (Sur Sur 5.74?±?0.13 Ma), the feldspar porphyry shows an interval from 5.8 to 5.2 Ma and the Don Luis porphyry from 5.2 to 5.0 Ma. The new Re–Os data on distinct molybdenite vein types confirm the protracted history of Cu(–Mo) mineralisation, inferred previously. The vein development occurred at least from 5.94 to 4.50 Ma, indicating a time-span of 1.5 Ma for the hydrothermal activity. Hydrothermal minerals dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method are generally too young to record the age of early, high-temperature mineralisation. The majority of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data in the Río Blanco porphyry cluster record reheating by either the youngest member of the Late Porphyry suite or the post-mineralisation dacite or rhyolite plug formations at around 4.9–4.7 Ma.     

Review of effects of radiation damage on the luminescence emission of minerals, and the example of He-irradiated CePO4

The accumulation of structural damage that is created in minerals upon corpuscular irradiation, has two apparently contrarious effects on their luminescence behaviour. First, irradiation may cause the generation of luminescent defect centres, which typically results in broad-band emissions. Such defect emissions are characteristic of low levels of radiation damage. Second, radiation damage depletes in general the luminescence of minerals, which is associated with broadenings and intensity losses of individual emission lines. Minerals that have suffered elevated levels of irradiation hence tend to be virtually non-luminescent. This review paper aims at giving an overview of the possible correlations of radiation damage and emission characteristics of minerals. After a brief, introductory summary of the damage-accumulation process and its causal corpuscular radiation, an array of examples is presented for how internal and/or external irradiation may change appreciably the emission of rock-forming and accessory minerals. As a detailed example for the complexity of changes of emissions upon damage accumulation, preliminary results of a case study of the photoluminescence (PL) of synthetic CePO₄ irradiated with 8.8 MeV He ions are presented. Irradiation-induced spectral changes include (i) the initial creation, and subsequent depletion, of a broad-band, defect-related PL emission of orange colour, and (ii) gradual broadenings and intensity losses of PL lines related to electronic transitions of rare-earth elements, eventually leading to gradual loss of their splitting into multiple Stark levels (shown for the ⁴F_3/2 → ⁴I_9/2 transition of Nd³⁺).     

Response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to persistent North Atlantic oscillation like forcing

The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO?, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing.     

A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions

We use the global atmospheric GCM aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM to asses possible impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate. Air quality control strategies focus on the reduction of aerosol emissions. Here we investigate the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe abatement of aerosols in the near term future (2030) in combination with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The temperature response of increasing GHG concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions leads to a global annual mean equilibrium temperature response of 2.18 K. When aerosols are maximally abated only in the Industry and Powerplant sector, while other sectors stay with currently enforced regulations, the temperature response is 1.89 K. A maximum feasible abatement applied in the Domestic and Transport sector, while other sectors remain with the current legislation, leads to a temperature response of 1.39 K. Increasing GHG concentrations alone lead to a temperature response of 1.20 K. We also simulate 2–5% increases in global mean precipitation among all scenarios considered, and the hydrological sensitivity is found to be significantly higher for aerosols than for GHGs. Our study, thus highlights the huge potential impact of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate and supports the need for urgent GHG emission reductions. GHG and aerosol forcings are not independent as both affect and are influenced by changes in the hydrological cycle. However, within the given range of changes in aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations considered in this study, the climate response towards increasing GHG concentrations and decreasing aerosols emissions is additive.     

Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

Decadal and bi-decadal climate responses to tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) are inspected in an ensemble simulation covering the last millennium based on the Max Planck Institute—Earth system model. An unprecedentedly large collection of pre-industrial SVEs (up to 45) producing a peak annual-average top-of-atmosphere radiative perturbation larger than ?1.5 Wm^?2 is investigated by composite analysis. Post-eruption oceanic and atmospheric anomalies coherently describe a fluctuation in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system with an average length of 20–25 years. The study provides a new physically consistent theoretical framework to interpret decadal Northern Hemisphere (NH) regional winter climates variability during the last millennium. The fluctuation particularly involves interactions between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the North Atlantic gyre circulation closely linked to the state of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. It is characterized by major distinctive details. Among them, the most prominent are: (a) a strong signal amplification in the Arctic region which allows for a sustained strengthened teleconnection between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic during the first post-eruption decade and which entails important implications from oceanic heat transport and from post-eruption sea ice dynamics, and (b) an anomalous surface winter warming emerging over the Scandinavian/Western Russian region around 10–12 years after a major eruption. The simulated long-term climate response to SVEs depends, to some extent, on background conditions. Consequently, ensemble simulations spanning different phases of background multidecadal and longer climate variability are necessary to constrain the range of possible post-eruption decadal evolution of NH regional winter climates.     

Interannual to decadal summer drought variability over Europe and its relationship to global sea surface temperature

Interannual to decadal variability of European summer drought and its relationship with global sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated using the newly developed self calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and global sea surface temperature (SST) field for the period 1901–2002. A European drought severity index defined as the average of scPDSI over entire Europe shows quasiperiodic variations in the 2.5–5 year band as well as at 12–13 years suggesting a possible potential predictability of averaged drought conditions over Europe. A Canonical Correlation Analysis between summer scPDSI anomalies over Europe and global SST anomalies reveals the existence of three modes of coupled summer drought scPDSI patterns and winter global SST anomalies. The first scPDSI-SST coupled mode represents the long-term trends in the data which manifest in SST as warming over all oceans. The associated long-term trend in scPDSI suggests increasing drought conditions over the central part of Europe. The second mode is related to the inter-annual ENSO and decadal PDO influence on the European climate and the third one captures mainly the drought pattern associated to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The lag relationships between winter SST and summer drought conditions established in this study can provide a valuable skill for the prediction of drought conditions over Europe on interannual to decadal time scales.