Assessment of runoff,water and sediment quality in the Selenga River basin aided by a web-based geoservice

The Selenga River is the main artery feeding Lake Baikal. It has a catchment of ~450000 km² in the boundary region between Northern Mongolia and Southern Siberia. Climate, land use and dynamic socioeconomic changes go along with rising water abstractions and contaminant loads originating from mining sites and urban wastewater. In the future, these pressures might have negative impacts on the ecosystems of Lake Baikal and the Selenga River Delta, which is an important wetland region in itself and forms the last geobiochemical barrier before the Selenga drains into Lake Baikal. The following study aims to assess current trends in hydrology and water quality in the Selenga-Baikal basin, identify their drivers and to set up models (WaterGAP3 framework and ECOMAG) for the prediction of future changes. Of particular relevance for hydrological and water quality changes in the recent past were climate and land use trends as well as contaminant influx from mining areas and urban settlements. In the near future, additional hydrological modifications due to the construction of dams and abstractions/water diversions from the Selenga’s Mongolian tributaries could lead to additional alterations.     

On Probing the Inertial Subrange

For an extensive turbulent wind speed data set collected on the open ocean, the optimum sampling time is determined to calculate inertial-range spectra. Such spectra are widely used to estimate surface fluxes. The optimum sampling time corresponds to the turbulent memory time, the minimum period after which a given time series can be interpreted as a new independent measurement. In our case, this interval is found to be only about six seconds.Separate spectral levels are calculated from the three measured vector components of the wind. Their ratios are compatible with the assumption of an isotropic inertial subrange, but scatter considerably. Alignment factors are developed based on Kolmogorov's theory, and the aligned spectral levels coincide within a few percent. It is proposed that alignment might be a more reliable test than the ratio of the spectral levels to determine whether observations have taken place in a universal inertial subrange. It is recommended that all three wind components are used to estimate the dissipation rate.     

Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the ~1,500-year cycle

Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a ~1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct ~1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes.     

The Baltic Sea Experiment BALTEX: A brief overview and some selected results of the authors

The mechanisms responsible for the transfer of energy and water within the climate system are under worldwide investigation within the framework of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) to improve the predictability of natural and man-made climate changes at short and long ranges and their impact on water resources. Five continental-scale experiments have been established within GEWEX to enable a more complete coupling between atmospheric and hydrological models. One of them is the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX).In this paper, the goals and structure of BALTEX are outlined. A short overview of measuring and modelling strategies is given. Atmospheric and hydrological model results of the authors only are presented. These include also the validation of precipitation using station measurements as well as validation of modelled cloud cover with cloud estimates from satellite data. Furthermore, results of a large-scale grid based hydrological model to be coupled to atmospheric models are presented.This research has never been possible without the contribution of research groups and operational institutions from all 10 member countries. We concentrate here on results obtained at the GKSS research center.     

An evaluation of the surface radiation budget over North America for a suite of regional climate models against surface station observations

Components of the surface radiation budget (SRB) [incoming shortwave radiation (ISR) and downwelling longwave radiation (DLR)] and cloud cover are assessed for three regional climate models (RCM) forced by analysed boundary conditions, over North America. We present a comparison of the mean seasonal and diurnal cycles of surface radiation between the three RCMs, and surface observations. This aids in identifying in what type of sky situation simulated surface radiation budget errors arise. We present results for total-sky conditions as well as overcast and clear-sky conditions separately. Through the analysis of normalised frequency distributions we show the impact of varying cloud cover on the simulated and observed surface radiation budget, from which we derive observed and model estimates of surface cloud radiative forcing. Surface observations are from the NOAA SURFRAD network. For all models DLR all-sky biases are significantly influenced by cloud-free radiation, cloud emissivity and cloud cover errors. Simulated cloud-free DLR exhibits a systematic negative bias during cold, dry conditions, probably due to a combination of omission of trace gas contributions to the DLR and a poor treatment of the water vapor continuum at low water vapor concentrations. Overall, models overestimate ISR all-sky in summer, which is primarily linked to an underestimate of cloud cover. Cloud-free ISR is relatively well simulated by all RCMs. We show that cloud cover and cloud-free ISR biases can often compensate to result in an accurate total-sky ISR, emphasizing the need to evaluate the individual components making up the total simulated SRB.     

Reconstructing estuarine conditions: oyster shells as recorders of environmental change, Southwest Florida

Live-collected shells of the oyster, Crassostrea virginica, contain geochemical records of modern temperature and salinity, so records of prehistoric conditions may be obtained from subfossil shells. Restoration of channelized watersheds in Florida is receiving much attention, and plans for targeted watersheds require information about estuarine conditions before channelization. Lack of historical records necessitates alternative methods to understand pre-disturbance conditions. A ¹⁴C-calibrated, amino-acid geochronology based on racemization of glutamic acid yielded ages ranging from 190–1220 AD and from 1270–1860 AD for subfossil oysters from Blackwater River (near-natural watershed) and for Faka-Union Bay (channelized watershed), respectively. δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values of subfossil shells from Blackwater River indicate salinity and summer temperatures similar to present. Winter temperatures recorded in shells from 190, 590, 720, and 1050 AD appear 1–5 °C colder than present winter temperatures, whereas the shell from 1220 AD records winter temperatures similar to modern winter temperatures. These temperature shifts may indicate change in climate or natural seasonal variation of winter temperature from year to year. Subfossils from Faka-Union Bay may reflect a complicated hydrology, which cannot be evaluated by isotopic compositions alone and demonstrates the need for development of independent elemental proxies for temperature and salinity. Decreases in δ¹³C from subfossil to modern shells may in part result from CO₂ added to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning (the Suess effect). Subfossil δ¹³C that is >1‰ more positive than modern shells suggest a change in the dominant carbon sources from terrestrial C₄ or aquatic plants to C₃ plants (mangroves).     

Über den Aufbau von 11 offenen Sternhaufen

The strip functions, circular velocity functions and various characteristic parameters of NGC 659, 1027, 1245, 1502, 1528, 1907, 2420, 6830, 6866, 7062 and IC 1848 are derived. From these functions the relative density distribution in the “mean” cluster defined by the 11 clusters is determined. The corresponding generalized SCHUSTER model is found (n = 3.04). The stars of the mean cluster are somewhat more concentrated to the centre than in the model.     

ROSAT PSPC observations of the Orion Trapezium area II. Source variability and revised source list

A deep ROSAT PSPC image centred on the Orion Trapezium has been reduceda second time using an improved version of the PSF to fit the data. The outer rim of the field of view was also included. The new catalogue contains 316 X‐ray sources which are easily identified with pre‐main sequence stars of the Ori OB1 Ic and Id association. All 316 sources were tested for variability. No variations were found inside the single exposures of about 45 minutes length each. Between the 4 exposures spaced over 5 days about 1/3 of the sources show signs of activities of various forms. As above 25% of these have somewhat regular lights curves (monotonically rising or falling or hill‐shaped) we infer that at least some outbursts with time scales longer than a day are present and that past searches for X‐ray flares of pre‐main sequence stars were biased towards shorter time scales.