Bio-electricity and land use in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM)

Bio-electricity is an important technology for Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-27) mitigation scenarios, especially with the possibility of negative carbon dioxide emissions when combined with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). With a strong economic foundation, and broad coverage of economic activity, computable general equilibrium models have proven useful for analysis of alternative climate change policies. However, embedding energy technologies in a general equilibrium model is a challenge, especially for a negative emissions technology with joint products of electricity and carbon dioxide storage. We provide a careful implementation of bio-electricity with CCS in a general equilibrium context, and apply it to selected EMF-27 mitigation scenarios through 2100. Representing bio-electricity and its land requirements requires consideration of competing land uses, including crops, pasture, and forests. Land requirements for bio-electricity start at 200 kilohectares per terawatt-hour declining to approximately 70 kilohectares per terwatt-hour by year 2100 in scenarios with high bioenergy potential.     

Response of precipitation over Greenland and the adjacent ocean to North Pacific warm spells during Dansgaard–Oeschger stadials

ABSTRACT Palaeoceanographic reconstructions from the North Atlantic indicate massive ice breakouts from East Greenland near the onset of cold Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) stadials. In contrast to these coolings in the North Atlantic area, a new sea-surface temperature record reveals concomitant warm spells in the northern North Pacific. A sensitivity experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model is used to test the potential impact of sea-surface warmings by 3.5 °C in the North Pacific, on top of otherwise cold stadial climate conditions, on the precipitation regime over the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. The model predicts a maximum response over East Greenland and the Greenland Sea, where a 40% increase in net annual snow accumulation occurs. This remote effect of North Pacific warm spells on the East Greenland snow-accumulation rate may play an important role in generating D–O cycles by rebuilding the ice lost during ice breakouts. In addition, the increased precipitation over the Greenland Sea may help to sustain the D–O stadial climate state.     

Present climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model

The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure.     

Optimal liability apportionment in programmatic credit-based emissions trading

The inclusion of Programmes of Activities (PoAs) within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been limited by the fact that third-party project validators, who determine the eligibility of a CDM Project Activity (CPA), are currently held liable for any certificates that are erroneously issued. As such, validators must replace any credits issued for the relevant CPA. Moreover, the risk associated with the validation of small-scale CPAs is considerably higher than that associated with traditional CDM projects. Using a simple game-theory model to model the interactions between project validators and coordinators, it is shown that shifting liability for certificates that are erroneously included – from the former to the latter – is never optimal, does not provide a strong enough incentive to enforce first-best levels of due care in CPA selection and inclusion, and can induce overprovision in validation efforts. The main problem with such a simple proportionate liability regime is that an increase in incentives for one player automatically leads to a decrease in incentives for the other. Two additional instruments are also considered that would both rectify this problem and improve the environmental integrity of the CDM mechanism.     

Die Galaktische BeschleunigungK(z) Und Das Lokale System

The galactic accelerationK(z) calculated by Perry (1969) is explained by the influence of a local galactic mass concentration.

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Mitteilungen Serie A, Nr. 46.     

Holocene climate variability as derived from alkenone sea surface temperature and coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments

Holocene climate modes are identified by the statistical analysis of reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the tropical and North Atlantic regions. The leading mode of Holocene SST variability in the tropical region indicates a rapid warming from the early to mid Holocene followed by a relatively weak warming during the late Holocene. The dominant mode of the North Atlantic region SST captures the transition from relatively warm (cold) conditions in the eastern North Atlantic and the western Mediterranean Sea (the northern Red Sea) to relatively cold (warm) conditions in these regions from the early to late Holocene. This pattern of Holocene SST variability resembles the signature of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). The second mode of both tropical and North Atlantic regions captures a warming towards the mid Holocene and a subsequent cooling. The dominant modes of Holocene SST variability emphasize enhanced variability around 2300 and 1000 years. The leading mode of the coupled tropical-North Atlantic Holocene SST variability shows that an increase of tropical SST is accompanied by a decrease of SST in the eastern North Atlantic. An analogy with the instrumental period as well as the analysis of a long-term integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model suggest that the AO/NAO is one dominant mode of climate variability at millennial time scales.     

Measurements of biomarker levels in flounder (Platichthys flesus) and blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) from the Gulf of Gdańsk (southern Baltic)

In the framework of the EU funded BEEP project a set of biomarkers, gross morphometric indices and tissue concentrations of selected organic pollutants were measured in flounder (Platichthys flesus) and mussels (Mytilus trossulus) collected twice a year (April and October) from three sites in the inner Gulf of Gdańsk between autumn 2001 and spring 2003. In flounder, seasonal differences in most biomarkers were observed, but no correlations with tissue pollutant levels could be found. In mussels, highly variable levels in biomarker responses were seen, but no clear seasonal or spatial trends, directly related to tissue concentrations, could be established. The observed biomarkers distribution the study sites are probably mostly caused by interannual, seasonal and individual variability and, in case of flounder, possibly by exchange of stocks between the sampling sites.     

Use of biliary PAH metabolites as a biomarker of pollution in fish from the Baltic Sea

During field campaigns of the BEEP project (Biological Effects of Environmental Pollution in Marine Coastal Ecosystems) in 2001-2002, metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in bile samples from three fish species, flounder (Platichthys flesus), perch (Perca fluviatilis) and eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), from four separate areas in the Baltic Sea. Two determination methods were applied: fixed wavelength fluorescence (FF) for pyrene-type metabolites and high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC). There was a good correlation between the FF method and 1-OH pyrene determined by HPLC. Normalisation of the FF data for absorbance at 380 nm or bile protein concentrations greatly increased variance in one third and decreased it in two thirds of the cases and resulted in a loss of significant differences (protein normalisation) between the sampling stations, but normalisation of the HPLC data had little effect on the results. The biliary PAH metabolite content was usually higher in males than in females. In perch and eelpout the biliary PAH contents were at similar levels, whereas in flounder the levels were lower. The sampling areas arranged in decreasing order of biliary PAH contents were: Wismar Bay > Gulf of Gdansk > Lithuanian coast > Kvadofj?rden (reference area). It is concluded that FF with un-normalised data is a reliable and simple method for monitoring purposes and only one sex of a selected species should be used.     

A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100?years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000?years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.     

Eemian tropical and subtropical African moisture transport: an isotope modelling study

During the last interglacial insolation maximum (Eemian, MIS 5e) the tropical and subtropical African hydrological cycle was enhanced during boreal summer months. The climate anomalies are examined with a General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) that is equipped with a module for the direct simulation of ¹⁸O and deuterium (H ₂ ¹⁸ O and HDO, respectively) in all components of the hydrological cycle. A mechanism is proposed to explain the physical processes that lead to the modelled anomalies. Differential surface heating due to anomalies in orbital insolation forcing induce a zonal flow which results in enhanced moisture advection and precipitation. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming short wave radiation and induces a cooling between 10°N and 20°N. The isotopic composition of rainfall at these latitudes is therefore significantly altered. Increased amount of precipitation and stronger advection of moisture from the Atlantic result in isotopically more depleted rainfall in the Eemian East African subtropics compared to pre-industrial climate. The East–West gradient of the isotopic rainfall composition reverses in the Eemian simulation towards depleted values in the east, compared to more depleted western African rainfall in the pre-industrial simulation. The modelled re-distribution of δ¹⁸O and δD is the result of a change in the forcing of the zonal flow anomaly. We conclude that the orbitally induced forcing for African monsoon maxima extends further eastward over the continent and leaves a distinct isotopic signal that can be tested against proxy archives, such as lake sediment cores from the Ethiopian region.