Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance

Background

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071–2100 is predicted to be 1–5.5 °C higher than that for 1971–2000. Climate change and elevated CO₂ concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change.

Results

Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO₂. The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C.

Conclusions

This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers’ ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

     

Closed-system marine burial diagenesis: isotopic data from the Austin Chalk and its components

ABSTRACT
The carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of the Austin Chalk was examined in cores representing a range of depths from surface to 3000 m in order to document the effects of burial diagenesis on carbon and oxygen isotopic composition. Low magnesium calcite oysters were separated (from 500 um wide areas) and analysed to estimate the starting composition of Cretaceous marine sediment. These gave an average value of -2·5%δ¹⁸O; + 2·0%δ¹³C (PDB). The compositions of micrite, intergranular cement, and fracture cement were analysed, and their deviation from this original marine composition was evaluated to document the progression of chalk diagenesis. Interestingly, micrite exhibits only minor variation in composition from marine values despite present burial depth ranges in excess of 3000 m. The average deviation from δ18O marine is less than 1·5. Furthermore, intergranular cement and particularly fracture cements, which occur only in the deepest cores and which clearly post-date micrite lithification, are generally indistinguishable from micrite in composition. Isotopic compositions exhibit no correlation with depth of burial despite abundant petrographic evidence of deep burial diagenesis. This uniformity in composition is interpreted as reflecting a closed, rock-dominated diagenetic system in which the compositions of precipitated carbonate cements were controlled by the composition of dissolving carbonates during lithification. As such, the composition of burial cement is not representative of the rock-water temperatures during precipitation.
Thus, in the context of isotopic analyses from other carbonate systems, unless the degree of openness of the diagenetic system is known, oxygen isotopic signatures of cements cannot directly be converted to the rock-water temperatures at which they were precipitated unless the composition of the ambient porefluid is also known.     

Seasonal dynamics of microbial sulfate reduction in temperate intertidal surface sediments: controls by temperature and organic matter

The role of microbial sulfate reduction on organic matter oxidation was studied quantitatively in temperate intertidal surface sediments of the German Wadden Sea (southern North Sea) on a seasonal base in the years 1998–2007. The sampling sites represent the range of sediments found in the back-barrier tidal area of Spiekeroog Island: sands, mixed and muddy flats. The correspondingly different contents in organic matter, metals, and porosities lead to significant differences in the activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria with volumetric sulfate reduction rates (SRR) in the top 15 cm of up to 1.4 μmol cm^?3 day^?1. Depth-integrated areal SRR ranged between 0.9 and 106 mmol m^?2 day^?1, with the highest values found in the mudflat sediments and lower rates measured in sands at the same time, demonstrating the impact of both temperature and organic matter load. According to a modeling approach for a 154-km² large tidal area, about 39, 122, and 285 tons of sulfate are reduced per day, during winter, spring/autumn, and summer, respectively. Hence, the importance of areal benthic organic matter mineralization by microbial sulfate reduction increases during spring/autumn and summer by factors of about 2 and 7, respectively, when compared to winter time. The combined results correspond to an estimated benthic organic carbon mineralization rate via sulfate reduction of 78 g C m^?2 year^?1.     

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.     

Controls on carbonate platform architecture and reef recovery across the Palaeozoic to Mesozoic transition: A high-resolution analysis of the Great Bank of Guizhou

Carbonate platforms spanning intervals of global change provide an opportunity to identify causal links between the evolution of marine environment and depositional architecture. This study investigates the controls on platform geometry across the Palaeozoic to Mesozoic transition and yields new stratigraphic and palaeoenvironmental constraints on the Great Bank of Guizhou, a latest Permian to earliest Late Triassic isolated carbonate platform in the Nanpanjiang Basin of south China. Reconstruction of platform architecture was achieved by integrating field mapping, petrography, biostratigraphy, satellite imagery analysis and δ¹³C chemostratigraphy. In contrast to previous interpretations, this study indicates that: (i) the Great Bank of Guizhou transitioned during Early Triassic time from a low-relief bank to a platform with high relief above the basin floor (up to 600 m) and steep slope angles (preserved up to 50°); and (ii) the oldest-known platform-margin reef of the Mesozoic Era grew along steep, prograding clinoforms in an outer-margin to lower-slope environment. Increasing platform relief during Early Triassic time was caused by limited sediment delivery to the basin margin and a high rate of accommodation creation driven by Indosinian convergence. The steep upper Olenekian (upper Lower Triassic) slope is dominated by well-cemented grainstone, suggesting that high carbonate saturation states led to syndepositional or rapid post-depositional sediment stabilization. Latest Spathian reef initiation coincided with global cooling following Early Triassic global warmth. The first Triassic framework-building metazoans on the Great Bank of Guizhou were small calcareous sponges restricted to deeper water settings, but early Mesozoic reef builders were volumetrically dominated by Tubiphytes, a fossil genus of uncertain taxonomic affinity. In aggregate, the stratigraphic architecture of the Great Bank of Guizhou records sedimentary response to long-term environmental and biological recovery from the end-Permian mass extinction, highlighting the close connections among marine chemistry, marine ecosystems and carbonate depositional systems.     

Nondestructive imaging of hypervelocity impact-induced damage zones beneath laboratory-created craters by means of ultrasound travel-time tomography

Since the 1960s, hypervelocity impact experiments have been conducted to study the complex deformation mechanisms which occur in the subsurface of meteorite craters. Here, we present ultrasound tomography measurements of the damage zone underneath seven experimentally produced impact craters in sandstone cubes. Within the framework of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Research Network and the NEOShield Project, decimeter-sized sandstone targets were impacted by aluminum and steel projectiles with radii of 2.5, 4, and 5 mm at velocities between ~3.0 and ~7.4 km s⁻¹. The 2-D ultrasound tomography clearly shows a correlation between impact energy and the damaged volume within the target blocks. When increasing impact energies from 805 to 2402 J, a corresponding increase in the damage radius from ~13.1 cm to ~17.6 cm was calculated. p-Wave velocity reductions up to 18.3% (for the highest impact energy) were observed in the vicinity of the craters. The reduction in seismic velocity decreased uniformly and linearly with increasing distance from the impact point. The damage intensities correspond to peak damage parameters of 0.4–0.51 compared to undamaged target blocks. In addition to the damage zone below the crater, we could identify weakened zones at the sandstone walls which represent precursors of spalling. The volume of the damaged subsurface beneath experimentally produced craters determined through ultrasound tomography is larger than that obtained from previously reported p-wave velocity reductions or to microscopic and microcomputed tomography observations of crack densities in experimentally produced craters.     

Effects of nanoparticles in Mytilus edulis gills and hepatopancreas - a new threat to marine life?

Every day new extraordinary properties of nanoparticles (a billionth of a meter) are discovered and worldwide millions are invested into nanotechnology and nanomaterials. Risks to marine organisms are still not fully understood and biomarkers to detect health effects are not implemented, yet. We used the filter feeding blue mussel as a model to analyse uptake and effects of nanoparticles from glass wool, a new absorbent material suggested for use in floating oil spill barriers. In both, gills and hepatopancreas we analysed uptake of nanomaterials by transmission electronmicroscopy (TEM) in unstained ultrathin sections over a period of up to 16 days. Lysosomal stability and lipofuscin content as general indicators of cellular pathology and oxidative stress were also measured. As portals of uptake, diffusion and endocytosis were identified resulting in nanoparticle accumulation in endocytotic vesicles, lysosomes, mitochondria and nuclei. Dramatic decrease of lysosomal membrane stability occurred after 12h of exposure. Lysosomal damage was followed by excessive lipofuscin accumulation indicative of severe oxidative stress. Increased phagocytosis by granulocytes, autophagy and finally apoptosis of epithelial cells of gills and primary and secondary digestive tubules epithelial cells indicated progressive cell death. These pathological responses are regarded as general indices of toxic cell injury and oxidative stress. By the combinational use of biomakers with the ultrastructural localisation of nanoparticle deposition, final evidence of cause-effect relationships is delivered.     

The Namuskluft and Dreigratberg sections in southern Namibia (Kalahari Craton,Gariep Belt): a geological history of Neoproterozoic rifting and recycling of cratonic crust during the dispersal of Rodinia until the amalgamation of Gondwana

This paper presents combined U/Pb, Th/U and Hf isotope analyses on detrital and magmatic zircon grains together with whole-rock geochemical analyses of two basement and eight sedimentary rock samples from the Namuskluft and the Dreigratberg in southern Namibia (Gariep Belt). The sedimentary sections evolved during the Cryogenian on the SW part of the Kalahari Craton and where therefore deposited in an active rift setting during the break-up of Rodinia. Due to insufficient palaeomagnetic data, the position of the Kalahari Craton within Rodinia is still under discussion. There are possibilities to locate Kalahari along the western side of Australia/Mawsonland (Pisarevski et al. in Proterozoic East Gondwana: supercontinent assembly and break-up, Geological Society, London, 2003; Evans in Ancient Orogens and modern analogues. Geological Society, London, 2009; and others) or together with the Congo-Sao Francisco and Rio de la Plata Cratons (Li et al. in Prec Res 45: 203–2014, 2008; Frimmel et al. in Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch) 100: 323–354, 2011; and others). It is sill unclear which craton rifted away from the Kalahari Craton during the Cryogenian. Although Middle to Upper Cryogenian magmatic activity is known for the SE Kalahari Craton (our working area) (Richtersveld Suite, Rosh Pinah Fm), all the presented samples show no U/Pb zircon ages younger than ca. 1.0 Ga and non-older than 2.06 Ga. The obtained U/Pb ages fit very well to the exposed basement of the Kalahari Craton (1.0–1.4 Ga Namaqua Province, 1.7–2.0 Ga Vioolsdrif Granite Suite and Orange River Group) and allow no correlation with a foreign craton such as the Rio de la Plata or Australia/Mawsonland. Lu–Hf isotopic signatures of detrital zircon point to the recycling of mainly Palaeoproterozoic and to a smaller amount of Archean crust in the source areas. εHf(t) signatures range between ?24 and +14.8, which relate to T_DM model ages between 1.05 and 3.1 Ga. Only few detrital zircon grains derived from magmas generated from Mesoproterozoic crustal material show more juvenile εHf(t) signatures of +14, +8 to +4 with T_DM model ages of 1.05–1.6 Ga. During Neoproterozoic deposition, only old cratonic crust with an inherited continental arc signature was available in the source area clearly demonstrated by Hf isotope composition of detrital zircon and geochemical bulk analysis of sedimentary rocks. The granodiorites of the Palaeoproterozoic basement underlying Namuskluft section are ca. 1.9 Ga old and show εHf(t) signatures of ?3 to ?5.5 with T_DM model ages of 2.4–2.7 Ga. These basement rocks demonstrate the extreme uplift and deep erosion of the underlying Kalahari Craton at its western margin before general subsidence during Cryogenian and Ediacaran time. The sedimentary sequence of the two examined sections (Namuskluft and Dreigratberg) proposes the presence of a basin and an increasing subsidence at the SW part of the Kalahari Craton during the Cryogenian. Therefore, we propose the initial formation of an intra-cratonic sag basin during the Lower Cryogenian that evolved later to a rift basin at the cratonic margin due to increasing crustal tension and rifting together with the opening of the Adamastor Ocean. As the zircons of the sedimentary rocks filling this basin show neither rift-related U/Pb ages nor an exotic craton as a possible source area, the only plausible sedimentary transport direction providing the found U/Pb ages would be from the E or the SE, directly from the heart of the Kalahari Craton. Due to subsidence and ongoing sedimentation from E/SE directions, the rift-related magmatic rocks were simply covered by the input of old intra-cratonic material that explains the absence of Neoproterozoic zircon grains in our samples. The geochemical analyses show the erosion of a continental arc and related sedimentary rocks with an overall felsic provenance. The source area was a deeply eroded and incised magmatic arc that evolved on continental crust, without any evidence for a passive margin. All of this can be explained by the erosion of rocks related to the Namaqua Belt, which represents one of the two major peaks of zircon U–Pb ages in all analysed samples. Therefore, the Namaqua Belt was well exposed during the Cryogenian, available to erosion and apart from the also well-exposed Palaeoproterozoic basement of the Kalahari Craton one potential source area for the sedimentary rocks in the investigated areas.     

On Probing the Inertial Subrange

For an extensive turbulent wind speed data set collected on the open ocean, the optimum sampling time is determined to calculate inertial-range spectra. Such spectra are widely used to estimate surface fluxes. The optimum sampling time corresponds to the turbulent memory time, the minimum period after which a given time series can be interpreted as a new independent measurement. In our case, this interval is found to be only about six seconds.Separate spectral levels are calculated from the three measured vector components of the wind. Their ratios are compatible with the assumption of an isotropic inertial subrange, but scatter considerably. Alignment factors are developed based on Kolmogorov's theory, and the aligned spectral levels coincide within a few percent. It is proposed that alignment might be a more reliable test than the ratio of the spectral levels to determine whether observations have taken place in a universal inertial subrange. It is recommended that all three wind components are used to estimate the dissipation rate.     

Assessment of runoff,water and sediment quality in the Selenga River basin aided by a web-based geoservice

The Selenga River is the main artery feeding Lake Baikal. It has a catchment of ~450000 km² in the boundary region between Northern Mongolia and Southern Siberia. Climate, land use and dynamic socioeconomic changes go along with rising water abstractions and contaminant loads originating from mining sites and urban wastewater. In the future, these pressures might have negative impacts on the ecosystems of Lake Baikal and the Selenga River Delta, which is an important wetland region in itself and forms the last geobiochemical barrier before the Selenga drains into Lake Baikal. The following study aims to assess current trends in hydrology and water quality in the Selenga-Baikal basin, identify their drivers and to set up models (WaterGAP3 framework and ECOMAG) for the prediction of future changes. Of particular relevance for hydrological and water quality changes in the recent past were climate and land use trends as well as contaminant influx from mining areas and urban settlements. In the near future, additional hydrological modifications due to the construction of dams and abstractions/water diversions from the Selenga’s Mongolian tributaries could lead to additional alterations.