Leading patterns of the tropical Atlantic variability in a coupled general circulation model

This paper examines the mean annual cycle, interannual variability, and leading patterns of the tropical Atlantic Ocean simulated in a long-term integration of the climate forecast system (CFS), a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model presently used for operational climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. By comparing the CFS simulation with corresponding observation-based analyses or reanalyses, it is shown that the CFS captures the seasonal mean climate, including the zonal gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, even though the CFS produces warm mean biases and underestimates the variability over the southeastern ocean. The seasonal transition from warm to cold phase along the equator is delayed 1 month in the CFS compared with the observations. This delay might be related to the failure of the model to simulate the cross-equatorial meridional wind associated with the African monsoon. The CFS also realistically simulates both the spatial structure and spectral distributions of the three major leading patterns of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean: the south tropical Atlantic pattern (STA), the North tropical Atlantic pattern (NTA), and the southern subtropical Atlantic pattern (SSA). The CFS simulates the seasonal dependence of these patterns and partially reproduces their association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The dynamical and thermodynamical processes associated with these patterns in the simulation and the observations are similar. The air-sea interaction processes associated with the STA pattern are well simulated in the CFS. The primary feature of the anomalous circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) associated with the NTA pattern resembles that in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) linked with the SSA pattern, implying a similarity of the mechanisms in the evolution of these patterns and their connection with the tropical and extratropical anomalies in their respective hemispheres. The anomalies associated with both the SSA and NTA patterns are dominated by atmospheric fluctuations of equivalent-barotropic structure in the extratropics including zonally symmetric and asymmetric components. The zonally symmetric variability is associated with the annular modes, the Arctic Oscillation in the NH and the Antarctic Oscillation in the SH. The zonally asymmetric part of the anomalies in the Atlantic is teleconnected with the anomalies over the tropical Pacific. The misplaced teleconnection center over the southern subtropical ocean may be one of the reasons for the deformation of the SSA pattern in the CFS.     

A new approach to quantification of metamorphism using ultra-small and small angle neutron scattering

In this paper we report the results of a study using small angle and ultra-small angle neutron scattering techniques (SANS and USANS) to examine the evolution of carbonates during contact metamorphism. Data were obtained from samples collected along two transects in the metamorphosed Hueco limestone at the Marble Canyon, Texas, contact aureole. These samples were collected from the igneous contact out to ∼1700 m. Scattering curves obtained from these samples show mass fractal behavior at low scattering vectors, and surface fractal behavior at high scattering vectors. Significant changes are observed in the surface and mass fractal dimensions as well as the correlation lengths (pore and grain sizes), surface area to volume ratio and surface Gibbs Free energy as a function of distance, including regions of the aureole outside the range of classic metamorphic petrology. A change from mass-fractal to non-fractal behavior is observed at larger scales near the outer boundary of the aureole that implies significant reorganization of pore distributions early in the metamorphic history. Surface fractal results suggest significant smoothing of grain boundaries, coupled with changes in pore sizes. A section of the scattering curve with a slope less than −4 appears at low-Q in metamorphosed samples, which is not present in unmetamorphosed samples. A strong spike in the surface area to volume ratio is observed in rocks near the mapped metamorphic limit, which is associated with reaction of small amounts of organic material to graphite. It may also represent an increase in pore volume or permeability, suggesting that a high permeability zone forms at the boundary of the aureole and moves outwards as metamorphism progresses. Neutron scattering data also correlate well with transmission electron microscopic (TEM) observations, which show formation of micro- and nanopores and microfractures during metamorphism. The scattering data are, however, quantifiable for a bulk rock in a manner that is difficult to achieve using high-resolution imaging (e.g. TEM). Thus, neutron scattering techniques provide a new approach to the analysis and study of metamorphism.     

The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.     

Remote Observation of the Spatial Variability of Surface Waves Interacting With an Estuarine Outflow

This paper explores the application of phased-array high-frequency (HF) radars to identify locations of enhanced local waveheights. Measurements of the near-surface current velocities and waveheights were obtained from HF radars deployed near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay in the fall of 1997. The radar-derived near-surface velocities were compared with the upper bin (2-m depth) of four upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs). The slopes of the linear correlations were close to one and the root-mean-square (rms) differences were similar to previous studies. Significant waveheight (Hs) estimates from both radars were compared with a laser height gauge. The largest differences were observed during low winds due to overestimates at one of the radar stations and during storms when the laser measurement failed. Further analysis focused on the HF radar results from the more reliable of the two sites. The rms difference between this radar and the in situ sensor was 0.29 m. Synoptic observations of Hs over the Chesapeake Bay revealed regions of current-induced wave shoaling and refraction. Hs over the estuarine outflow increased between 19-50% relative to the incident Hs in light onshore winds (~5 m/s). In stronger winds (>10 m/s), Hs also increased by up to 25% when there was a tidal outflow in the surface layer, although the near-surface currents were responding to both the wind and the ebbing tide. Hs was not enhanced when the outflow was below a thicker layer (>5 m) of wind-forced onshore flow     

Modelling the release to the Kara Sea of radioactive waste from the icebreaker Lenin: Version II

In progressing its work for the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP), under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Source Term Working Group has developed a FORTRAN model to predict a radiation release profile into the Kara Sea from reactor fuel and activated components of the nuclear icebreaker Lenin. The model accounts for the degradation of containment materials through corrosion and other mechanisms, and predicts annual release rates to 4500 years into the future. Version I of the model was developed as a spreadsheet program from the original data gathered by the Working Group and the results were published by Timms et al. (1994); revised information on the method of disposal necessitated a change to the program, which is presented in this paper as Version II. The model is being applied to other marine reactors dumped in the Kara Sea in a programme of work for the IASAP aimed at assessing the collective release profile from all significant dump sites in this region.     

Oceanographic controls on the carbon isotopic compositions of sinking particles from the Cariaco Basin

This study examined the relationship between carbon isotopic composition of sinking organic matter (OM) and the biological, physical and chemical properties of the surface ocean in the Cariaco Basin. The ¹³C/¹²C ratio of OM (δ¹³C_org) in sinking particles was determined on sediment trap samples from four depths collected from 1996 to 1999 as part of the CArbon Retention In A Colored Ocean time series. Water column properties, including temperature, productivity, chlorophyll and concentration of dissolved CO₂, were concurrently measured on monthly cruises. The δ¹³C_org varied from a high of –17.7‰ to a low of –22.6‰ during the study period. The variation of the δ¹³C_org throughout seasonal cycles was directly proportional to the strength of upwelling and was negatively correlated with temperature (r²=0.64). During the 1996–1997 upwelling event, the strongest during the study period, the δ¹³C_org increased by 4.4‰ whereas during the 1998–1999 upwelling event, the weakest during the study period, the δ¹³C_org only increased by 3.3‰. Contrary to most previous studies, we observed a negative relationship (r²=0.53) between [CO_2 aq] and the estimated isotopic fractionation factor (ε_p). However, there was no correlation between ε_p and the calculated growth rates indicating that there was non-diffusive uptake of carbon into phytoplankton cells. It thus appears that [CO_2 aq] does not control the δ¹³C_org in the water column of the study site. The best explanation for the isotopic enrichment observed is a carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM) in phytoplankton. The existence of a CCM in phytoplankton has major implications for the interpretation of the δ¹³C_org in the Cariaco Basin.     

Late- to post-orogenic exhumation of the Central Pyrenees revealed through combined thermochronological data and modelling

Apatite (U–Th)/He and fission track thermochronometry have been combined with 3D thermal modelling to constrain the late- to post-orogenic exhumation history of the Central Pyrenees, Spain. Data from four massifs immediately north and south of the present drainage divide of the mountain belt reveal a diachroneity in the transition from syn- to post-orogenic forcing of exhumation. Immediately south of the drainage divide, rapid exhumation of ∼1.5 mm year⁻¹ decelerated after ∼30 Ma to ∼0.03 mm year⁻¹. A similar transition occurred immediately north of the drainage divide at the same time. Further south, in the core of the Axial Zone antiformal stack of the Pyrenees, rapid (∼1 mm year⁻¹), syn-orogenic exhumation continued to ∼20 Ma, but slowed to ∼0.1–0.2 mm year⁻¹ soon after that time. This order of magnitude decrease in exhumation rates across the orogen records the diachronous transition into a post-orogenic state for the mountain belt. These data do not record rejuvenation of exhumation in Late Miocene or Pliocene times driven either by large-scale base-level change or an evolution to more erosive climatic conditions.     

Geospatial Ontology Development and Semantic Analytics

Geospatial ontology development and semantic knowledge discovery addresses the need for modeling, analyzing and visualizing multimodal information, and is unique in offering integrated analytics that encompasses spatial, temporal and thematic dimensions of information and knowledge. The comprehensive ability to provide integrated analysis from multiple forms of information and use of explicit knowledge make this approach unique. This also involves specification of spatiotemporal thematic ontologies and populating such ontologies with high quality knowledge. Such ontologies form the basis for defining the meaning of important relations terms, such as near or surrounded by, and enable computation of spatiotemporal thematic proximity measures we define. SWETO (Semantic Web Technology Evaluation Ontology) and geospatial extension SWETO‐GS are examples of these ontologies. The Geospatial Semantics Analytics (GSA) framework incorporates: (1) the ability to automatically and semi‐automatically tract metadata from syntactically (including unstructured, semi‐structured and structured data) and semantically heterogeneous and multimodal data from diverse sources; and (2) analytical processing that exploits these ontologies and associated knowledge bases, with integral support for what we term spatiotemporal thematic proximity (STTP) reasoning and interactive visualization capabilities. This paper discusses the results of our geospatial ontology development efforts as well as some new semantic analytics methods on this ontology such as STTP.     

High Arctic wetlands: Their occurrence, hydrological characteristics and sustainability

High Arctic wetlands, though limited in occurrence, are an important ecological niche, providing the major vegetated areas in an arid and cold polar desert environment. These wetlands are often found as patches in the barren landscape. At a few locales which may be ice-wedge polygonal grounds, glacial terrain and zones of recent coastal uplift, wetland occurrence can become extensive, forming a mosaic that comprises patches of different wetland types. Reliable water supply during the thawed season is a deciding factor in wetland sustainability. The sources include meltwater from late-lying snowbanks, localized ground water discharge, streamflow, inundation by lakes and the sea, and for some ice-wedge wetlands, ground-ice melt. Different types of wetlands have their own characteristics, and peat accumulation or diatom depositions are common. The peat cover insulates the wetland from summer heating and encourages permafrost aggradation, with the feedback that a shallow frost table reduces the moisture storage capacity in a thinly thawed layer, which becomes easily saturated. All the wetlands studied have high calcium content since they are formed on carbonate terrain. Coastal wetlands have high salt concentration while snowmelt and ground-ice melt provides dilution. The sustainability of High Arctic wetlands is predicated upon water supply exceeding the losses to evaporation and lateral drainage. Disturbances due to natural causes such as climatic variations, geomorphic changes, or human-induced drainage, can reduce inundation opportunities or increase outflow. Then, the water table drops, the vegetation changes and the peat degrades, leading to the detriment of the wetlands.