A novel approach to the analytical modelling of an auger conveyor system for lunar regolith transportation

Acta Geotechnica - Auger-based transportation systems are a promising method to transport lunar regolith for in situ resource utilisation. An analytical model based on terrestrial auger conveyor...     

The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis

This paper investigates trust in the scientists, government authorities and wider risk management team during the ongoing volcanic crisis in Montserrat, WI. Identifying the most trusted communicator and how trust in information can be enhanced are considered important for improving the efficacy of volcanic risk communication. Qualitative interviews, participant observations and a quantitative survey were utilised to investigate the views and attitudes of the public, authorities and scientists. Trust was found to be dynamic, influenced by political factors made more complex by the colonial nature of Montserrat’s governance and the changing level of volcanic activity. The scientists were viewed by the authorities as a highly trusted expert source of volcanic information. Mistrust among some of the local authorities towards the scientists and British Governor was founded in the uncertainty of the volcanic situation and influenced by differences in levels of acceptable risk and suspicions about integrity (e.g. as a consequence of employment by the British Government). The public viewed friends and relatives as the most trusted source for volcanic information. High trust in this source allowed competing messages to reinforce beliefs of lower risk than were officially being described. The scientists were the second most trusted group by the public and considered significantly more competent, reliable, caring, fair and open than the authorities. The world press was the least trusted, preceded closely by the British Governor’s Office and Montserratian Government officials. These results tally well with other empirical findings suggesting that government ministers and departments are typically distrusted as sources of risk-related information. These findings have implications for risk communication on Montserrat and other volcanic crises. The importance and potential effectiveness of scientists as communicators, because of, and despite, the existence of political, cultural and institutional barriers, is exemplified by this study.

Cadmium and phosphate in coastal Antarctic seawater: Implications for Southern Ocean nutrient cycling

Cadmium is a biologically important trace metal that co-varies with phosphate (PO₄³⁻ or Dissolved Inorganic Phosphate, DIP) in seawater. However, the exact nature of Cd uptake mechanisms and the relationship with phosphate and other nutrients in global oceans remain elusive. Here, we present a time series study of Cd and PO₄³⁻ from coastal Antarctic seawater, showing that Cd co-varies with macronutrients during times of high biological activity even under nutrient and trace metal replete conditions. Our data imply that Cd/PO₄³⁻ in coastal surface Antarctic seawater is higher than open ocean areas. Furthermore, the sinking of some proportion of this high Cd/PO₄³⁻ water into Antarctic Bottom Water, followed by mixing into Circumpolar Deep Water, impacts Southern Ocean preformed nutrient and trace metal composition. A simple model of endmember water mass mixing with a particle fractionation of Cd/P (α_Cd–P) determined by the local environment can be used to account for the Cd/PO₄³⁻ relationship in different parts of the ocean. The high Cd/PO₄³⁻ of the coastal water is a consequence of two factors: the high input from terrestrial and continental shelf sediments and changes in biological fractionation with respect to P during uptake of Cd in regions of high Fe and Zn. This implies that the Cd/PO₄³⁻ ratio of the Southern Ocean will vary on glacial–interglacial timescales as the proportion of deep water originating on the continental shelves of the Weddell Sea is reduced during glaciations because the ice shelf is pinned at the edge of the continental shelf. There could also be variations in biological fractionation of Cd/P in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean on these timescales as a result of changes in atmospheric inputs of trace metals. Further variations in the relationship between Cd and PO₄³⁻ in seawater arise from changes in population structure and community requirements for macro- and micronutrients.     

Emplacement conditions of the c. 1,600-year bp Collier Cone lava flow, Oregon: a LiDAR investigation

A long-standing question in lava flow studies has been how to infer emplacement conditions from information preserved in solidified flows. From a hazards perspective, volumetric flux (effusion rate) is the parameter of most interest for open-channel lava flows, as the effusion rate is important for estimating the final flow length, the rate of flow advance, and the eruption duration. The relationship between effusion rate, flow length, and flow advance rate is fairly well constrained for basaltic lava flows, where there are abundant recent examples for calibration. Less is known about flows of intermediate compositions (basaltic andesite to andesite), which are less frequent and where field measurements are limited by the large block sizes and the topographic relief of the flows. Here, we demonstrate ways in which high-resolution digital topography obtained using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) systems can provide access to terrains where field measurements are difficult or impossible to collect. We map blocky lava flow units using LiDAR-generated bare earth digital terrain models (DTMs) of the Collier Cone lava flow in the central Oregon Cascades. We also develop methods using geographic information systems to extract and quantify morphologic features such as channel width, flow width, flow thickness, and slope. Morphometric data are then analyzed to estimate both effusion rates and emplacement times for the lava flow field. Our data indicate that most of the flow outline (which comprises the earliest, and most voluminous, flow unit) can be well explained by an average volumetric flux ～14–18?m³/s; channel data suggest an average flux ～3?m³/s for a later, channel-filling, flow unit. When combined with estimates of flow volume, these data suggest that the Collier Cone lava flow was most likely emplaced over a time scale of several months. This example illustrates ways in which high-resolution DTMs can be used to extract and analyze morphologic measurements and how these measurements can be analyzed to estimate emplacement conditions for inaccessible, heavily vegetated, or extraterrestrial lava flows.     

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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Breadcrust bombs as indicators of Vulcanian eruption dynamics at Guagua Pichincha volcano,Ecuador

Vulcanian eruptions are common at many volcanoes around the world. Vulcanian activity occurs as either isolated sequences of eruptions or as precursors to sustained explosive events and is interpreted as clearing of shallow plugs from volcanic conduits. Breadcrust bombs characteristic of Vulcanian eruptions represent samples of different parts of these plugs and preserve information that can be used to infer parameters of pre-eruption magma ascent. The morphology and preserved volatile contents of breadcrust bombs erupted in 1999 from Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, thus allow us to constrain the physical processes responsible for Vulcanian eruption sequences of this volcano. Morphologically, breadcrust bombs differ in the thickness of glassy surface rinds and in the orientation and density of crack networks. Thick rinds fracture to create deep, widely spaced cracks that form large rectangular domains of surface crust. In contrast, thin rinds form polygonal networks of closely spaced shallow cracks. Rind thickness, in turn, is inversely correlated with matrix glass water content in the rind. Assuming that all rinds cooled at the same rate, this correlation suggests increasing bubble nucleation delay times with decreasing pre-fragmentation water content of the melt. A critical bubble nucleation threshold of 0.4–0.9 wt% water exists, below which bubble nucleation does not occur and resultant bombs are dense. At pre-fragmentation melt H₂O contents of >∼0.9 wt%, only glassy rinds are dense and bomb interiors vesiculate after fragmentation. For matrix glass H₂O contents of ≥1.4 wt%, rinds are thin and vesicular instead of thick and non-vesicular. A maximum measured H₂O content of 3.1 wt% establishes the maximum pressure (63 MPa) and depth (2.5 km) of magma that may have been tapped during a single eruptive event. More common H₂O contents of ≤1.5 wt% suggest that most eruptions involved evacuation of ≤1.5 km of the conduit. As we expect that substantial overpressures existed in the conduit prior to eruption, these depth estimates based on magmastatic pressure are maxima. Moreover, the presence of measurable CO₂ (≤17 ppm) in quenched glass of highly degassed magma is inconsistent with simple models of either open- or closed-system degassing, and leads us instead to suggest re-equilibration of the melt with gas derived from a deeper magmatic source. Together, these observations suggest a model for the repeated Vulcanian eruptions that includes (1) evacuation of the shallow conduit during an individual eruption, (2) depressurization of magma remaining in the conduit accompanied by open-system degassing through permeable bubble networks, (3) rapid conduit re-filling, and (4) dome formation prior to the subsequent explosion. An important part of this process is densification of upper conduit magma to allow repressurization between explosions. At a critical overpressure, trapped pressurized gas fragments the nascent impermeable cap to repeat the process.     

Manufacturing rural finance in Asia: Institutional assemblages, market societies, entrepreneurial subjects

This paper takes up the proposition that institutions mediate market formation, through a comparative study of rural finance in Nepal and Vietnam. It explores how microfinance, as an iconic institution of ‘roll-out neoliberalism’, articulates political-economic and cultural-political milieux—with particular emphasis given to the ways in which the Vietnamese Party-state has engaged rural finance to further the socialist transition even as it has undergone significant ‘economic renovation’. In so doing, the paper adopts a processual interpretation of institutions not as bounded structures, but as arenas of ongoing debate over culturally constructed meanings and ‘practices of assemblage’ [Li, T.M., 2007a. Practices of assemblage and community forest management. Economy and Society 36 (2), 263–293] that are inextricably linked with wider-scale political-economic and cultural-political formations. A comparative approach is pursued here to emphasize spatio-temporal contingencies in the articulation of a market-led development institution with specific national regulatory frameworks and political cultures. A critical-geographical orientation helps to deepen Polanyi’s proposition that the economy is an instituted process, to challenge the prevailing binary opposition between state- and market-led development, account for the multiple scales at which power and interest reside in the formation of markets, and highlight the variable ways in which markets are embodied and enacted in particular places.     

Identifying climate services needs for national planning: insights from Malawi

The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5–10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1–5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2–3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1–5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6–20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short- to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors.

Policy relevance

For climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales – sub-annual to short term (1–5 years) to medium term (6–20 years) – is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.     

Climate–water quality relationships in Texas reservoirs

Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and concentrations of salts in surface water bodies can be affected by the natural environment and local human activities such as surface and ground water withdrawals, land use and energy extraction, and variability and long‐term trends in atmospheric conditions including temperature and precipitation. Here, we quantify the relationship between 121 indicators of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation and 24 water quality parameters in 57 Texas reservoirs using observational data records covering the period 1960 to 2010. Over time scales ranging from 1 week to 2 years, we find that water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, chloride, sulfate, and phosphorus all show consistent correlations with atmospheric predictors, including high and low temperature extremes, dry days, heavy precipitation events, and mean temperature and precipitation. Based on these relationships combined with regional climate projections, we expect climate change to increase water temperatures, decrease dissolved oxygen levels, decrease pH, increase specific conductance, and increase levels of sulfate and chloride in Texas reservoirs. Over decadal time scales, this may affect aquatic ecosystems in the reservoirs, including altering the risk of conditions conducive to algae occurrence, as well as affecting the quality of water available for human consumption and recreation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibrating Data from the Hinode/X-Ray Telescope and Associated Uncertainties

The X-Ray Telescope (XRT) onboard the Hinode satellite, launched 23 September 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), is a joint mission of Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom to study the solar corona. In particular, XRT was designed to study solar plasmas with temperatures between 1 and 10 MK with ≈?1″ pixels (≈?2″ resolution). Prior to analysis, the data product from this instrument must be properly calibrated and data values quantified to accurately assess the information contained within. We present here the standard methods of calibration for these data. The calibration was performed on an empirical basis that uses the least complicated correction that accurately describes the data while suppressing spurious features. By analyzing the uncertainties remaining in the data after calibration, we conclude that the procedure is successful, because the remaining uncertainty after calibration is dominated by photon noise. This calibration software is available in the SolarSoft software library.