Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.     

Die geodynamische Entwicklung der Thiersee- und der Karwendelmulde (Nördliche Kalkalpen)

Zusammenfassung Die Thiersee- und die Karwendelmulde in den Nördlichen Kalkalpen sind als zwei getrennte, E-W-verlaufende Synklinen entwickelt. Ihre Länge zwischen Kufstein und Mittenwald beträgt über 70 km.Systematische geologische Aufnahmen — Kartierung, Stratigraphie, Sedimentologie und Gefügekunde — ergaben, daß die Thierseemuide im Raum von Achenkirch nicht — wie früher vermutet wurde — in die Karwendelmulde umbiegt. Die Auswertung von mehr als 45 000 Gefügemessungen mit Hilfe eines EDV-Programms bewies vielmehr, daß Thierseemuide und Karwendelmulde zwei parallele, unabhängige Strukturen sind, die durch die komplizierte tektonische Zone von Achenkirch getrennt werden.Die paläogeographische Entwicklung und der Ablauf der Bewegungen werden im Überblick skizziert.

---

Systematic geological survey showed that the Thiersee and Karwendel synclines in the Northern Calcareous Alps are two parallel structures, separated by a slightly folded intersection. The synclines do not turn into each other, as was presumed by earlier workers.The tectonic situation in the area of Achenkirch was cleared by evaluation of more than 45,000 field texture data by a computer program. Mapping as well as stratigraphical and sedimentological analysis supports the tectonic model. The paleogeographic development and tectonic history are briefly described.

---

Résumé Les dépressions du «Thiersee» et du «Karwendel», dans les Alpes calcaires du Nord, sont deux synclinaux indépendants de direction Est-Ouest. Elles font 70 km de long entre Kufstein et Mittenwald.Des relevés géologiques systématiques — levés géologiques, stratigraphie, sédimentologie et structurologie — démontrèrent que, dans la région d'Achenkirch, la dépression du «Thiersee» ne contourne pas la dépression du «Karwendel» (comme on l'a longtemps supposé!). L'exploitation par ordinateur de plus de 45.000 mesures structurales révéla au contraire, que ces dépressions sont deux structures parallèles et indépendantes, séparées par la zone tectonique complexe d'Achenkirch.Le développement paléogéographique et le déroulement des mouvements font l'objet d'une vue d'ensemble.

---

, . 70 . , - , , — , , . EDV 45 000 , , . .

     

Electrical anisotropy and conductivity distribution functions of fractal random networks and of the crust: the scale effect of connectivity

All explanations of the high-conductivity layers (HCL) found by magnetotellurics in the middle or lower crust incorporate a mixture of a low-conductivity rock matrix and a highly conductive phase, for example graphite or saline fluids. In most cases the bulk conductivity of the mixture does not depend on the conductivity of the rock matrix but rather (1) on the amount of high-conductivity material and, in particular, (2) on its geometry. The latter is quantitatively described by the parameter 'electrical connectivity'. Decomposition of the observed bulk conductivity of the mixture into these two parameters results in an ill-posed problem. Even if anisotropy occurs in the HCL, three output parameters (highly conductive phase fraction, connectivity with respect to the X direction, connectivity with respect to the Y direction) have to be estimated from the two bulk conductivities of the anisotropic HCL. The additional information required for solving this problem is provided if instead of single-site data the conductivities from many field sites are evaluated: a sample distribution of the conductivity can then be obtained. Ensembles of random networks are used to create theoretical distribution functions which match the empirical distribution functions to some extent. The use of random resistor networks is discussed in the context of other established techniques for the treatment of two-phase systems, such as percolation theory and the renormalization group approach. Models of embedded networks explain the discrepancy between 'small' anisotropy (2-3) on the laboratory scale and large anisotropy (10-100) found in electromagnetic field surveys encompassing volumes of several cubic kilometres. Strong anisotropy can indicate low electrical connectivity, and a possible explanation is that a network stays close to the percolation threshold.     

Visualisation strategies for environmental modelling data

We present a framework that allows users to apply a number of strategies to view and modify a wide range of environmental data sets for the modelling of natural phenomena. These data sets can be concurrently visualised to find inconsistencies or artefacts. This ensures at an early stage that models set up for the simulation of hydrological or thermal processes will not give implausible results due to complications based on input data. A number of generally applicable visualisation techniques are provided by our framework to help researchers detect potential problems. We also propose a number of mapping algorithms for the integration of multiple data sets to resolve some of the most common issues. Techniques for the presentation of input- and modelling data in combination with simulation results are proposed with respect to the benefits of visualisation of environmental data within specialised environments. The complete workflow from input data to presentation is demonstrated based on a case study in Central Germany. We identify typical problems, propose approaches for a suitable data integration for this case study and compare results of the original and modified data sets.     

A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level

Until now, climate model intercomparison has focused primarily on annual and global averages of various quantities or on specific components, not on how well the general dynamics in the models compare to each other. In order to address how well models agree when it comes to the dynamics they generate, we have adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 28 pre-industrial control runs as well as 70 20th-century forced runs from 23 climate models and have constructed networks for the 500 hPa, surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), and precipitation fields for each run. We then employed a widely used algorithm to derive the community structure in these networks. Communities separate “nodes” in the network sharing similar dynamics. It has been shown that these communities, or sub-systems, in the climate system are associated with major climate modes and physics of the atmosphere (Tsonis AA, Swanson KL, Wang G, J Clim 21: 2990–3001 in 2008; Tsonis AA, Wang G, Swanson KL, Rodrigues F, da Fontura Costa L, Clim Dyn, 37: 933–940 in 2011; Steinhaeuser K, Ganguly AR, Chawla NV, Clim Dyn 39: 889–895 in 2012). Once the community structure for all runs is derived, we use a pattern matching statistic to obtain a measure of how well any two models agree with each other. We find that, with the possible exception of the 500 hPa field, consistency for the SAT, SLP, and precipitation fields is questionable. More importantly, none of the models comes close to the community structure of the actual observations (reality). This is a significant finding especially for the temperature and precipitation fields, as these are the fields widely used to produce future projections in time and in space.     

Gottfried Konecny:The photogrammetric and remote sensing trend setter

PREFACE There are various publications on the 90th birthday of Gottfried Konecny.His involvement in the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing(ISPRS)is particularly described by others.Here,his forward-oriented impulses in research and development at the former Institute for Photogrammetry and Engineering Survey of the(Technical)University of Hannover,today Institute for Photogrammetry and Geoinformation,Leibniz University Hannover,and some of his activities supporting developing and other countries by given short-term courses are highlighted.Gottfried Konecny was always one of the first in pushing new technologies.With the analytical plotter AP/C-3,he introduced analytical photogrammetry in Germany.Based on his experience with this not really operational version,he induced the company Zeiss to develop the first really operational analytical plotter Planicomp,which resulted in the end of analog photogrammetric devices and their limitations.At the invitation of Gilbert Hobrough,a mainly hardware-based image correlator was developed for the AP/C-3 in Hannover which anticipated many of today's applications.Gottfried Konecny initiated remote sensing in Germany.Based on his proposal with the Metric Camera Flight on Spacelab,the then highest resolution civil stereoscopic space images available were generated.Despite limited computer performance at his institute,a digital stereo plotter was developed,using hardware components from the cooperating Swedish company Context Vision,long before digital stereo workstations with increased and affordable computer capacity were possible.Also,in the area of GIS,he too,pushed development in collaboration with companies and administrations.Shortly before the end of his time as head of the institute,and more so after he became emeritus professor,he started a series of educational workshops,particularly in developing countries,but also other countries,to support the development of photogram-metry,remote sensing and GIS.He promoted the use of space imagery for mapping to improve the situation of poorly updated topographic maps.     

Impact of multi-purpose aquifer utilisation on a variable-density groundwater flow system in the Gippsland Basin, Australia

The Latrobe aquifer in the Gippsland Basin in southeastern Australia is a prime example for emerging resource conflicts in Australian sedimentary basins. The Latrobe Group forms a major freshwater aquifer in the onshore Gippsland Basin, and is an important reservoir for oil and gas in both onshore and offshore parts of the basin. The Latrobe Group and overlying formations contain substantial coal resources that are being mined in the onshore part of the basin. These may have coal-seam-gas potential and, in addition, the basin is considered prospective for its geothermal energy and CO₂ storage potential. The impacts of groundwater extraction related to coal-mine dewatering, public water supply, and petroleum production on the flow of variable-density formation water has been assessed using freshwater hydraulic heads and impelling force vectors. Groundwater flows from the northern and western edges towards the central part of the basin. Groundwater discharge occurs mainly offshore along the southern margin. Post-stress hydraulic heads show significant declines near the petroleum fields and in the coal mining areas. A hydrodynamic model of the Latrobe aquifer was used to simulate groundwater recovery in the Latrobe aquifer from different scenarios of cessation of groundwater and other fluid extractions.     

A study of lignin degradation in leaf and needle litter using C-labelled tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) thermochemolysis: Comparison with CuO oxidation and van Soest methods

We studied the degradation of lignin in leaf and needle litter of ash, beech, maple, pine and spruce using ¹³C-labelled tetramethylammonium hydroxide (¹³C TMAH) thermochemolysis. Samples were allowed to decompose for 27 months in litter bags at a German spruce forest site, resulting in a range of mass loss from 26% (beech) to 58% (ash). In contrast to conventional unlabelled TMAH thermochemolysis, ¹³C-labelling allows thermochemolysis products from lignin, demethylated lignin and other polyphenolic litter compounds (e.g. tannins) to be distinguished. Proxies for lignin degradation (phenol yield; acid/aldehyde ratio of products) changed considerably upon correction for the contribution of non-lignin sources to the thermochemolysis products. Using the corrected values, we found increasing acid/aldehyde values as well as decreasing or constant yield of lignin derived phenols normalised to litter carbon, suggesting pronounced lignin degradation by wood-rotting fungi. No indication for build up of demethylated lignin through the action of brown rot fungi on ring methoxyls was found. The results were compared with those of other analytical techniques applied in previous studies. Like ¹³C-TMAH thermochemolysis, CuO oxidation showed increasing lignin oxidation (acid/aldehyde ratio) and no/little enrichment of lignin derived phenols in the litter. Molecular lignin degradation patterns did not match those from analysis of total acid unhydrolysable residues (AURs). In particular, the long assumed selective preservation of lignin during the first months of litter decomposition, based on AUR analysis, was not supported by results from the CuO and ¹³C TMAH methods.     

An easy approach to assess the susceptibility of a landslide by utilizing simple raster overlay methods: A case study on Huangtupo landslide (P.R. China)

Semi qualitative index based methods using rankings and ratings are commonly used in susceptibility estimations over a wide area. However, generalized ranking and ratings are not applicable for one single landslide. This paper gives an easy and transferable approach to a susceptibility assessment of Huangtupo landslide (P.R. China), using raster addition without taking account for ranking and ratings. Slope, aspect, curvature, location and drainage buffer distance raster data sets have been obtained out of open source digital elevation models using ESRI’s ArcGIS. These conditioning factor raster data sets have been translated into raster data sets including simple yes or no criteria, referring to triggering or not. Subsequently they have been added by raster math to acquire a simple raster overlay map. After that this map is compared to initial displacement measurements, obtained by using a ground based synthetic aperture radar device. Acquired data is recalculated to a raster data set using the same spatial extent, to provide the possibility of comparison of the two raster data sets. The results reveal, that 76.35% of all measured movements occur in areas where raster cells include three or more conditioning factors, indicating that easy raster math operations can lead to satisfying results in local scale.