Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai,India: Is statistical forecasting futile?

Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006–2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013–2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.     

Consensus among multiple trophic levels during high- and low-water stands over the last two millennia in a northwest Ontario lake

We investigated the modern distribution of fossil midges within a dimictic lake and explored downcore patterns of inferred lake depths over the last 2000 years from previously published proxies. Modern midge distribution within Gall Lake showed a consistent and predictable pattern related to the lake-depth gradient with recognizable assemblages characteristic of shallow-water, mid-depth and profundal environments. Interpretations of downcore changes in midge assemblages, in conjunction with quantitative lake-depth inferences across a priori defined (based on diatom data) ~ 500-yr wet and dry periods, demonstrated that both invertebrate and algal assemblages exhibited similar timing and nature of ecological responses. Midges were quantified by their relative abundance, concentrations and an index of Chaoborus to chironomids, and all showed the greatest differences between the wet and dry periods. During the low lake-level period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: AD 900 to 1400), profundal chironomids declined, shallow-water and mid-depth chironomids increased, chironomid-inferred lake level declined and the Chaoborus-to-chironomid index decreased. The coherence between multiple trophic levels provides strong evidence of lower lake levels in Gall Lake during the MCA.     

Activity of Young Dwarfs with Planetary Systems: EPIC 211901114 and K2–33

The results of an analysis of the activity of the young stars with planetary systems EPIC 211901114 and K2–33 based on observational data obtained over 70 days with the Kepler Space Telescope are presented. The rotation periods of EPIC 211901114 (8.56±0.60^d) and K2–33 (6.29±0.50^d) have been found. Maps of temperature inhomogeneities on the surfaces of EPIC 211901114 and K2–33 have been constructed. No relative displacements of the active regions on the stellar surface have been foundfor EPIC 211901114. The differential-rotation parameter has been estimated for K2–33, ΔΩ = 0.0039±(0.0020–0.0012) rad/day. The fractional spotted area S on the surface of EPIC 211901114 reaches about 5% of its total visible surface. For K2–33, S is 3.8% of its total visible surface, on average. On the whole, the positions of EPIC 211901114 and K2–33 on S–age, S–rotation period, and S–Rossby number diagrams match the general character of the dependence found earlier for M dwarfs. The flare activity of EPIC 211901114 and K2–33 has been studied, based on 32 flares of EPIC 211901114 and 7 flares of K2–33. The flare frequencies and amplitudes for EPIC 211901114 and K2–33 have been estimated, together with the time scales for their rise and decay. The flare energies have also been estimated, 10^32.1?33.4 and 10^32.2?33.3 erg for EPIC 211901114 and K2–33, respectively.     

Estimation of strength reduction factors via normalized pseudo‐acceleration response spectrum

Estimation of design forces in ductility‐based earthquake‐resistant design continues to be carried out with the application of response modification factors on elastic design spectra, and it remains interesting to explore how best to estimate strength reduction factors (SRFs) for a design situation. This paper considers the relatively less explored alternative of modelling SRF spectrum via a given response spectrum. A new model is proposed to estimate the SRF spectrum in terms of a pseudo‐spectral acceleration (PSA) spectrum and ductility demand ratio with the help of two coefficients. The proposed model is illustrated for an elasto‐plastic oscillator, in case of 10 recorded accelerograms and three ductility ratios. The proposed model is convenient and is able to predict SRF spectrum reasonably well, particularly at periods up to 1.0 s. Coefficients of the proposed model may also be determined in case of a given design spectrum when there is uncertainty in SRF spectrum due to uncertainty in temporal characteristics of the ground motion. This is illustrated with the help of 474 accelerograms recorded in western U.S.A. and different scaled PSA spectra. It is shown that probabilistic estimates may be obtained in this situation for SRF spectrum by assuming the error residuals to be log normally distributed with period‐dependent parameters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of gravitational instability excitation in viscoelastic polytropic fluids

The evolutionary excitation dynamics of the gravitational instability in a self-gravitating viscoelastic non-thermal polytropic complex fluid is semi-analytically explored on the astro-scales of space and time. The polytropic equation of state is well validated for the hydrostatic equilibrium established by a perfect heating-cooling balancing in the uni-component complex fluid. We apply a generalized gravitating hydrodynamic model in the concurrent presence of buoyancy, thermal fluctuations, volumetric expansion, and so forth. A normal mode (local) analysis yields a quadratic linear dispersion relation with a unique set of multi-parametric coefficients. The analytical reliability is checked by comparing with the existing reports on purely ideal inviscid nebular fluids and non-ideal viscoelastic fluids in isolation. It is seen that, unlike the normal instability mechanisms, the instability here remains unaffected due to the thermo-mechanical diffusion processes. The stabilizing (destabilizing) and accelerating (decelerating) factors of the instability are illustratively explored. The instability features are judged in the light of both impure non-ideal viscoelastic fluid and pure ideal inviscid nebular fluid scenarios. The relevancy of our exploration in superdense compact viscoelastic astro-objects and their surrounding atmospheres is summarily outlined.     

Tectonic setting of the Balaram-Kui-Surpagla-Kengora granulites of the South Delhi Terrane of the Aravalli Mobile Belt,NW India and its implication on correlation with the East African Orogen in the Gondwana assembly

Granulites are developed in various tectonic settings and during different geological periods, and have been used for continental correlation within supercontinent models. In this context the Balaram-Kui-Surpagla-Kengora granulites of the South Delhi Terrane of the Aravalli Mobile Belt of northwestern India are significant. The granulites occur as shear zone bounded lensoidal bodies within low-grade rocks of the South Delhi Terrane and comprise pelitic and calcareous granulites, a gabbro-norite-basic granulite suite and multiple phases of granites of the Ambaji suite. The granulites have undergone three major phases of folding and shearing. The F₁ and F₂ folds are coaxial along NE-SW axis, and F₃ folds are developed across the former along NW-SE axis. Thus, various types of interference patterns are produced. The granulite facies metamorphism is marked by a spinel–cordierite–garnet–sillimanite–quartz assemblage with melt phase and is synkinematic to the F₁ phase of folding. The peak thermobarometric condition is set at ≥850 °C and 5.5–6.8 kb. The granulites have been exhumed through thrusting along multiple ductile shear zones during syn- to post-F₂ folding. Late-stage shearing has produced cataclasites and pseudotachylites. Sensitive High Resolution Ion MicroProbe (SHRIMP) U–Pb dating of zircon from pelitic granulites and synkinematically emplaced granites indicate that: (1) the sedimentary succession of the South Delhi Terrane was deposited between 1240 and 860 Ma with detritus derived from magmatic sources with ages between 1620 and 1240 Ma; (2) folding and granulite metamorphism have taken place between ca. 860 and 800 Ma, and exhumation at around ca. 800–760 Ma; and (3) the last phase of granitic activity occurred at ca. 759 Ma. This shows, for the first time, that the granulites of the South Delhi Terrane are much younger than those of the Sandmata Granulite Complex of the northern part of the Aravalli Mobile Belt, the Saussar granulites of the Central India Mobile Belt and the Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt. Instead, they show similarities to the Neoproterozoic granulites of the Circum Indian Orogens that include the East African Orogen (East Africa and Madagascar), the Southern Granulite Terrane of India and much of Sri Lanka. We suggest that the South Delhi Basin probably marks a trace of the proto-Mozambique Ocean in NW India within Gondwana, that closed when the Marwar Craton, arc fragments (Bemarivo Belt in Madagascar and the Seychelles) and components of the Arabian-Nubian Shield collided with the Aravalli-Bundelkhand Protocontinent at ca. 850–750 Ma.     

A two-phase grey fuzzy optimization approach for water quality management of a river system

An extension of the Grey Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (GFWLAM) developed in an earlier work is presented here to address the problem of multiple solutions. Formulation of GFWLAM is based on the approach for solving fuzzy multiple objective optimization problems with max–min as the operator, which usually may not result in a unique solution. The multiple solutions of fuzzy multiobjective optimization model should be obtained as parametric equations or equations that represent a subspace. A two-phase optimization technique, two-phase GFWLAM, is developed to capture all alternative or multiple solutions of GFWLAM. The optimization model in Phase 1 is exactly same as the optimization model described in GFWLAM. The optimization model in Phase 2 maximizes the upper bounds of fractional removal levels of pollutants and minimizes the lower bounds of fractional removal levels of pollutants keeping the value of goal fulfillment level same as obtained from Phase 1. The widths of the interval-valued fractional removal levels play an important role in decision-making as these can be adjusted within their intervals by the decision-maker considering technical and economic feasibility in the final decision scheme. Two-phase GFWLAM widens the widths of interval-valued removal levels of pollutants, thus enhancing the flexibility in decision-making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.     

The fidelity of a regional coupled model in capturing the relationship between intraseasonal variability and the onset/demise of the Indian summer monsoon

Climate Dynamics - Onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and intraseasonal variability (ISV) embedded within the ISM are dominant climatological phenomena observed over the Indian...     

Grey fuzzy optimization model for water quality management of a river system

A grey fuzzy optimization model is developed for water quality management of river system to address uncertainty involved in fixing the membership functions for different goals of Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. The present model, Grey Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (GFWLAM), has the capability to incorporate the conflicting goals of PCA and dischargers in a deterministic framework. The imprecision associated with specifying the water quality criteria and fractional removal levels are modeled in a fuzzy mathematical framework. To address the imprecision in fixing the lower and upper bounds of membership functions, the membership functions themselves are treated as fuzzy in the model and the membership parameters are expressed as interval grey numbers, a closed and bounded interval with known lower and upper bounds but unknown distribution information. The model provides flexibility for PCA and dischargers to specify their aspirations independently, as the membership parameters for different membership functions, specified for different imprecise goals are interval grey numbers in place of a deterministic real number. In the final solution optimal fractional removal levels of the pollutants are obtained in the form of interval grey numbers. This enhances the flexibility and applicability in decision-making, as the decision-maker gets a range of optimal solutions for fixing the final decision scheme considering technical and economic feasibility of the pollutant treatment levels. Application of the GFWLAM is illustrated with case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.