Flow and geochemistry of groundwater beneath a back-barrier lagoon: The subterranean estuary at Chincoteague Bay,Maryland, USA

To better understand large-scale interactions between fresh and saline groundwater beneath an Atlantic coastal estuary, an offshore drilling and sampling study was performed in a large barrier-bounded lagoon, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland, USA. Groundwater that was significantly fresher than overlying bay water was found in shallow plumes up to 8 m thick extending more than 1700 m offshore. Groundwater saltier than bay surface water was found locally beneath the lagoon and the barrier island, indicating recharge by saline water concentrated by evaporation prior to infiltration. Steep salinity and nutrient gradients occur within a few meters of the sediment surface in most locations studied, with buried peats and estuarine muds acting as confining units. Groundwater ages were generally more than 50 years in both fresh and brackish waters as deep as 23 m below the bay bottom. Water chemistry and isotopic data indicate that freshened plumes beneath the estuary are mixtures of water originally recharged on land and varying amounts of estuarine surface water that circulated through the bay floor, possibly at some distance from the sampling location. Ammonium is the dominant fixed nitrogen species in saline groundwater beneath the estuary at the locations sampled. Isotopic and dissolved-gas data from one location indicate that denitrification within the subsurface flow system removed terrestrial nitrate from fresh groundwater prior to discharge along the western side of the estuary. Similar situations, with one or more shallow semi-confined flow systems where groundwater geochemistry is strongly influenced by circulation of surface estuary water through organic-rich sediments, may be common on the Atlantic margin and elsewhere.     

A Model-Averaging Method for Assessing Groundwater Conceptual Model Uncertainty

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.     

The historical and palaeoflood record of Katherine river,northern Australia: evaluating the likelihood of extreme discharge events in the context of the 1998 flood

The discharge regimes of the large rivers of northern Australia are characterized by the occurrence of extreme flood events with far‐reaching environmental and societal impacts. In January 1998 the largest flood ever recorded on the Katherine River, northern Australia, resulted in widespread inundation and resultant damage to the town of Katherine. The occurrence of the flood emphasized the unreliability of the then available flood probability estimates and prompted a palaeoflood approach to estimate the recurrence interval of the event. The location of Katherine is ideal for such a study, as the town is located immediately downstream from Katherine Gorge, which provides the necessary bedrock‐confined channel required for such an approach. In addition, previous work in Katherine Gorge had demonstrated that the gorge sections hold suitable deposits for palaeoflood stage reconstruction. The results of the present study show that at least two flow events with discharges similar to the 1998 flood have occurred within the last 600 years, and that high‐magnitude floods are a general feature of the discharge record of the Katherine River over the last c. 2000 years. Furthermore, because the study was undertaken within a few months of the occurrence of the 1998 flood, it provided the opportunity to evaluate the previously obtained flood discharge estimates and draw attention to the general uncertainties associated with palaeoflood studies. Our results emphasize that palaeoflood stage estimates based on slackwater deposits need to be treated as conservative estimates only. More specifically, with respect to the 1998 event, our study demonstrates that the controls of flood peak were more complex than simply flood routing through the gorge sections. It is clear that the areas downstream from Katherine Gorge made an important contribution to the flood peak of the 1998 event. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The transient oasis: Nutrient-phytoplankton dynamics and particle export in Hawaiian lee cyclones

Macronutrients, photosynthetic pigments, and particle export were assessed in two eddies during the E-Flux I and III cruises to investigate linkages between biogeochemical properties and export flux in Hawaiian lee cyclonic eddies. Cyclone Noah (E-Flux I), speculated to be in the ‘decay’ stage, exhibited modest increases in macronutrients and photosynthetic pigments at the eddy center compared to ambient waters. Cyclone Opal (E-Flux III) also exhibited modest increases in macronutrient concentrations, but a 2-fold enhancement in total chlorophyll a (TChl a) concentration within the eddy center. As indicated by fucoxanthin concentrations, the phytoplankton community in the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) of Opal was comprised mainly of diatoms. During an 8-day time series in the center of Opal, TChl a concentration and fucoxanthin in the DCM decreased by 50%, which was potentially triggered by silicic acid limitation. Despite the presence of a substantial diatom bloom, Opal did not deliver the expected export of particulate carbon and nitrogen, but rather a large biogenic silica export (4-fold increase relative to export in surrounding waters). Results suggest that controls on the life cycle of a Hawaiian lee cyclone are likely a combination of physical (eddy dynamics), chemical (nutrient limitation), and biological (growth and grazing imbalance) processes. Comparisons between Noah and Opal and previously studied cyclones in the region point to a relationship between the spin-up duration of a cyclone and the resulting biological response. Nonetheless, Hawaiian lee cyclones, which strongly influence the biogeochemistry of areas 100's of km in scale in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean, still remain an enigma.     

A “marginality” model to explain major spatial and temporal gaps in the old and new world Pleistocene settlement records

A key argument currently invoked to cast skepticism on certain South American sites, that suggest a first peopling of the New World by ca. 35,000 B.P., is the perplexingly low visibility of the archaeological record until 12,000 B.P. But, contrary to a popular misconception, great spatial and temporal discontinuities are common in the Old World Paleolithic settlement record. In Southern Africa, carefully controlled archaeological stratigraphies show that the now semiarid interior was unoccupied for 50,000 and more years at a time. Episodes of widespread settlement in marginal environments were relatively brief, limited to periods of substantially wetter climate, and closely linked with moist habitats. A risk-minimization model is proposed to explain these discontinuities. Plant and animal resources in the region, given a climate as dry or drier than today, were of low productivity and low reliability for unspecialized hunter-gatherers during the dry seasons of poor years. This would require large foraging territories and very wide spacing of proximal bands, so that the exchange of vital information on temporary or migratory resources was minimal. Finally, during extended droughts, fat-depleted animals provided an unsatisfactory source of food. These variables suggest that environments with low productivity and predictability were too risky for unspecialized hunter-gatherers with a pre-Upper Paleolithic technology, such as those who would have been able to enter the New World 35,000 B.P. Major spatial and temporal gaps in the New World settlement record should therefore be expected prior to the appearance of specialized Paleoindian hunter-gatherers ca. 12,000 B.P. Implications for geoarchaeological strategies are discussed.     

Validation of official erosion modelling based on high‐resolution radar rain data by aerial photo erosion classification

The universal soil loss equation (USLE) is the most frequently applied erosion prediction model and it is also implemented as an official decision‐making instrument for agricultural regulations. The USLE itself has been already validated using different approaches. Additional errors, however, arise from input data and interpolation procedures that become necessary for field‐specific predictions on a national scale for administrative purposes. In this study, predicted event soil loss using the official prediction system in Bavaria (Germany) was validated by comparison with aerial photo erosion classifications of 8100 fields. Values for the USLE factors were mainly taken from the official Bavarian high‐resolution (5 × 5 m²) erosion cadastre. As series of erosion events were examined, the cover and management factor was replaced by the soil loss ratio. The event erosivity factor was calculated from high‐resolution (1 × 1 km², 5 min), rain gauge‐adjusted radar rain data (RADOLAN). Aerial photo erosion interpretation worked sufficiently well and average erosion predictions and visual classifications correlated closely. This was also true for data broken down to individual factors and different crops. There was no reason to assume a general invalidity of the USLE and the official parametrization procedures. Event predictions mainly suffered from errors in the assumed crop stage period and tillage practices, which do not reflect interannual and farm‐specific variation. In addition, the resolution of radar data (1 km²) did not seem to be sufficient to predict short‐term erosion on individual fields given the strong spatial gradients within individual rains. The quality of the input data clearly determined prediction quality. Differences between USLE predictions and observations are most likely caused by parametrization weaknesses but not by a failure of the model itself. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

QUATERNARY GROWTH FOLDS IN THE JIUXI BASIN AT THE NORTHEASTERN MARGIN OF THE QINGHAI—XIZANG PLATEAU

QUATERNARY GROWTH FOLDS IN THE JIUXI BASIN AT THE NORTHEASTERN MARGIN OF THE QINGHAI—XIZANG PLATEAUgrants 49732 0 90and 496 0 2 0 36fromtheNSFofChina     

1951年以来奥地利人口变化的空间特征

根据1951-2001年奥地利人口调查统计数据,分析了近50年来奥地利人口变化的时空间规律,以及人口变化中的增长区和下降区的区域配置等特征,并建立人口变化模式。研究表明：20世纪后半叶奥地利经历了其他欧盟国所表现出的城市化、城市郊区化和人口老龄化的各个过程。特别是城市老龄化表现更为突出,据预测推算,到2035年奥地利将会有1/3的人口超过60岁。在分析过程中,不仅应用了行政区划的区域方法,而且也依据土地利用的经济性质,在“土地经济生产小区”的基底上,对人口的变化规律进行了更为深入的透视。研究结果显示：奥地利西部阿尔卑斯山地中的城市区域人口增长幅度最大。沿着捷克和斯洛伐克边界伸展的北部和东北部区域是最严重的人口缺失地区。而奥地利阿尔卑斯山地东部的一些早期产业都市及其郊区,乃至更远一些的南部和东南部的老工业区域,目前由于普遍存在着经济的困境,也直接导致了这些地区人口的下降。但奥地利未来的总人口趋势将持续稳定。     

The queen conch fishery on Pedro Bank, Jamaica: discovery, development, management

The history, methods, problems and regulation of fishing of the last remaining large queen conch resource in the world, located on a Jamaican fishing bank, are examined. The fishery activities for the queen conch, Strombus gigas Linnaeus are briefly described with the main activities in the industrial sector which produce the bulk of the harvest, which is exported. There are a few large producers harvesting the single major fishing ground of Pedro Bank, southwest of Kingston. These fishers harvested at least 1500 t annually between 1992 and 1998. Management is by licensing, individual quotas and a close season from July to October. Regulations related to CITES are thought to greatly assist in making licensed harvesters provide catch data to the Fisheries Division. The industrial operators have provided funding to undertake stock assessment studies in 1994 and again in 1997. We highlight the focus on management on a participatory consensual approach with meetings with all players in the industry. The conch fishery is thought to be one of the few areas of the Jamaica fishery where there is close and successful collaboration between fishers and the Fisheries Division. It provides an example of how rapid, precautionary, participatory action can provide an adequate basis for management until more definitive scientific information becomes available. The status of the conch fishery is thought to be sustainable at present, once reductions are made to the annual quota.