A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L⁻¹) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2×10⁶ cells L⁻¹ in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 μE m⁻² s⁻¹ isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L⁻¹. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS.     

No significant post-Eocene rotation of the Moesian Platform and Rhodope (Bulgaria): Implications for the kinematic evolution of the Carpathian and Aegean arcs

The region located between the Carpathian–Balkan and Aegean arcs, the Moesian Platform and Bulgarian Rhodope, is generally assumed to have been stably attached to the East European craton during the Cenozoic evolution of these arcs. The kinematic evolution of this region is, however, poorly constrained by paleomagnetic analysis. In this paper we provide new paleomagnetic data (800 volcanic and sedimentary samples from 12 localities) showing no significant post-Eocene rotation of the Moesian platform and Rhodope with respect to Eurasia, therefore confirming the stability of this region. We compare this result to a provided review of paleomagnetic data from the South Carpathians (Tisza block) and the Aegean region. The Tisza block underwent 68.4 ± 16.7° of middle Miocene ( 15–10 Ma) clockwise rotation with respect to the Moesian Platform, in line with previous rotation estimates based on structural geology. The stability of the Moesian platform during middle Miocene eastward emplacement of the Tisza block into the Carpathian back-arc supports dextral shear along the Southern Carpathians recorded by 13–6 Ma clockwise strike-slip related rotations in foreland deposits. The new reference direction for the Moesian platform and Rhodope allows accurate quantification of the rotation difference with the west Aegean domain at 38.0 ± 7.2° occurring between 15 and 8 Ma. To accommodate this rotation, we propose that the pivot point of the west-Aegean rotation was located approximately in the middle of the rotating domain rather than at the northern tip as previously proposed. This new scenario predicts less extension southeast of the pivot point, in good agreement with estimates from Aegean structural geology. Northwest of the pivot point, the model requires contraction or extrusion that can be accommodated by the coeval motion of the Tisza Block around the northwestern edge of the Moesian platform.     

Spatial Patterns in Surface Energy Balance Components Derived from Remotely Sensed Data

A relatively simple modeling approach for estimating spatially distributed surface energy fluxes was applied to two small watersheds, one in a semi‐arid climate region and one in a sub‐humid region. This approach utilized a combination of ground‐based meteorological data and remotely sensed data to estimate ‘instantaneous’ surface energy fluxes at the time of the satellite or aircraft overpasses. The spatial resolution in the watershed grid cells, which was on the order of 100‐400 km, was selected to be compatible with ground measurements used for validation. The model estimates of surface energy fluxes compared well with ground‐based measurements of surface flux (typically within approximately 40 Wm^?2). The model accuracy may be slightly less for bare soil surfaces due to an overestimation of the soil heat flux. In addition to demonstrating the feasibility of computing spatially distributed values of surface energy fluxes, these maps were used to qualitatively infer the dominant factors controlling the energy fluxes for the time period shortly following precipitation events in the basins. For the semi‐arid watershed, values of sensible heat flux varied considerably over the watershed and displayed a pattern very similar to that of the spatially variable cumulative precipitation for at least one to eight days prior to the image acquisition. Due to the large fraction of exposed bare soil in a semi‐arid ecosystem, even very small precipitation events had a strong influence on the pattern of sensible heat fluxes observed shortly after the event (less than 24 hours). For the sub‐humid watershed, the fluxes tended to be more uniform across the watershed, and were influenced by a combination of precipitation total and land cover type.     

Northern fulmars as biological monitors of trends of plastic pollution in the eastern North Pacific

Marine plastic debris is a global issue, which highlights the need for internationally standardized methods of monitoring plastic pollution. The stomach contents of beached northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) have proven a cost-effective biomonitor in Europe. However, recent information on northern fulmar plastic ingestion is lacking in the North Pacific. We quantified the stomach contents of 67 fulmars from beaches in the eastern North Pacific in 2009-2010 and found that 92.5% of fulmars had ingested an average of 36.8 pieces, or 0.385g of plastic. Plastic ingestion in these fulmars is among the highest recorded globally. Compared to earlier studies in the North Pacific, our findings indicate an increase in plastic ingestion over the past 40years. This study substantiates the use of northern fulmar as biomonitors of plastic pollution in the North Pacific and suggests that the high levels of plastic pollution in this region warrant further monitoring.     

Assessing the additive risks of PSII herbicide exposure to the Great Barrier Reef

Herbicide residues have been measured in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon at concentrations which have the potential to harm marine plant communities. Monitoring on the Great Barrier Reef lagoon following wet season discharge show that 80% of the time when herbicides are detected, more than one are present. These herbicides have been shown to act in an additive manner with regards to photosystem-II inhibition. In this study, the area of the Great Barrier Reef considered to be at risk from herbicides is compared when exposures are considered for each herbicide individually and also for herbicide mixtures. Two normalisation indices for herbicide mixtures were calculated based on current guidelines and PSII inhibition thresholds. The results show that the area of risk for most regions is greatly increased under the proposed additive PSII inhibition threshold and that the resilience of this important ecosystem could be reduced by exposure to these herbicides.     

GPU accelerated radio astronomy signal convolution

The increasing array size of radio astronomy interferometers is causing the associated computation to scale quadratically with the number of array signals. Consequently, efficient usage of alternate processing architectures should be explored in order to meet this computational challenge. Affordable parallel processors have been made available to the general scientific community in the form of the commodity graphics card. This work investigates the use of the Graphics Processing Unit in the parallelisation of the combined conjugate multiply and accumulation stage of a correlator for a radio astronomy array. Using NVIDIA’s Compute Unified Device Architecture, our testing shows processing speeds from one to two orders of magnitude faster than a Central Processing Unit approach.     

Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin,Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree‐day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash–Sutcliffe metric ~0.84, annual volume bias < 3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002–2006 period is estimated to be 29.7 ± 2.9% (which includes 4.2 ± 0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3 ± 2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000–5500 m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9 ± 3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9 ± 1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree‐day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Caffeine and agricultural pesticide concentrations in surface water and groundwater on the north shore of Kauai (Hawaii, USA)

Caffeine has been associated with wastewater pollution in temperate and subtropical locations, but environmental caffeine concentrations in tropical locations have not been reported. The objectives of this study were to measure caffeine and agricultural pesticide (carbaryl, metalaxyl, and metribuzin) concentrations in environmental waters on the tropical north shore of Kauai (Hawaii, USA) and assess whether patterns in caffeine concentration were consistent with a wastewater caffeine source. Groundwater, river, stream and coastal ocean samples were collected in August 2006 and February 2007. Caffeine was detected in all August 2006 samples and in 33% of February 2007 samples at concentrations up to 88 ng L⁻¹. Metribuzin was detected in five samples collected in February 2007. Carbaryl and metalaxyl were not detected in any sample. Caffeine was not detected in offshore ocean samples or river samples upstream of human development. A positive correlation between caffeine and enterococci suggested a possible wastewater caffeine source.     

Comparison of linear and nonlinear dimension reduction techniques for automated process monitoring of a decentralized wastewater treatment facility

Multivariate statistical methods for online process monitoring have been widely applied to chemical, biological, and engineered systems. While methods based on principal component analysis (PCA) are popular, more recently kernel PCA (KPCA) and locally linear embedding (LLE) have been utilized to better model nonlinear process data. Additionally, various forms of dynamic and adaptive monitoring schemes have been proposed to address time-varying features in these processes. In this analysis, we extend a common simulation study in order to account for autocorrelation and nonstationarity in process data and comprehensively compare the monitoring performances of static, dynamic, adaptive, and adaptive–dynamic versions of PCA, KPCA, and LLE. Furthermore, we evaluate a nonparametric method to set thresholds for monitoring statistics and compare results with the standard parametric approaches. We then apply these methods to real-world data collected from a decentralized wastewater treatment system during normal and abnormal operations. From the simulation study, adaptive–dynamic versions of all three methods generally improve results when the process is autocorrelated and nonstationary. In the case study, adaptive–dynamic versions of PCA, KPCA, and LLE all flag a strong system fault, but nonparametric thresholds considerably reduce the number of false alarms for all three methods under normal operating conditions.     

Pyritization of Iron in Sediments from the Continental Slope of the Northern Gulf of Mexico

In sediments from the continental slope of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, generally,the degree of iron pyritization (DOP) is low (<0.1) and dissolved sulfide is belowdetection limits (5 M), whereas dissolved Fe is typically about 50 to100 M. Therefore, the dissolution of kinetically reactive iron minerals generallydominates over the rate of sulfide production in sediments throughout this region.However, in sediments where hydrocarbons have been added via seepage from thesubsurface, dissolved-Fe is undetectable, DOP can approach 1, and high concentrationsof dissolved sulfide (up to 11 mM) are commonly present. Even though thesesediments have high total reduced sulfide (TRS) concentrations (typically 150 to370 mol gdw^-1), their average C/S ratio is about 4 times that of normal marine sediments reflecting the major input of hydrocarbons. DOP is significantly (20%) higher when calculated using reactive-Fe extracted by citrate dithionite than by cold 1N HCl. This difference is primarily due to the greater extraction efficiency of the cold HCl method for silicate-Fe. TRS tends to rise to a maximum, and remains close to constant even at high (mM) dissolved sulfide concentrations. These TRS concentrations, therefore, represent the size of the ``kinetically' reactive-Fe pool during early diagenesis.