Volcanic ash clouds affecting Northern Europe: the long view

The volcanic ash or ‘tephra’ cloud resulting from the relatively small (volume and VEI) eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 caused major air travel disruption, at substantial global economic cost. On several occasions in the past few centuries, Icelandic eruptions have created ash and/or sulphur dioxide clouds which were detected over Europe (e.g. Hekla in 1947, Askja in 1875, and Laki in 1783). However, these historical observations do not represent a complete record of events serious enough to disrupt aviation in Europe. The only feasible evidence for this is within the geological tephra record. Ash layers are preserved in bogs and lakes where tephra deposited from the atmosphere is incorporated in the peat/mud. In this article we: 1, introduce the analysis of the Northern European sedimentary tephra record; 2, discuss our findings and modelling results; 3, highlight how these were misinterpreted by the popular media; and 4, use this experience to outline several existing problems with current tephra studies and suggest agendas for future research.     

Management of a marine protected area for sustainability and conflict resolution: Lessons from Loreto Bay National Park (Baja California Sur,Mexico)

The Loreto Bay National Park was established to protect the area's ecosystems from habitat destruction and overexploitation. However, the park has not met two of its primary goals: recovery of commercially valuable fish populations and their sustainable use by stakeholders. Based on evidence from the literature, dialogue with stakeholders, a literature review on using recreational fees for marine protected area (MPA) management, and an economic valuation survey, we provide practical guidelines for addressing factors hindering the park's success. These include: 1) the implementation of management based upon ecosystem science, and rigorous monitoring of park ecosystems, 2) increased communication among stake-holder groups, outreach and education, and 3) a re-organization of the park's administrative structure that would allow for more efficient use of funds. Our results also suggest that the park entrance fee could be raised to support these proposed improvements.     

A rare reflection effect eclipsing sdB+dM binary: 2M 1533+3759

In this paper, we report a rare reflection effect eclipsing sdB+dM binary, 2M?1533+3759. It is the seventh eclipsing sdB+dM binary that has been discovered to date. This system has an orbital period of 0.16177042 day and a velocity semi-amplitude of 71.1 km?s^?1. Using a grid of zero-metallicity NLTE model atmospheres, we derived T _eff=29250 K, log?g=5.58 and [He/H]=?2.37 from spectra taken near the reflection effection minimum. Lightcurve modeling resulted in a system mass ratio of 0.301 and an orbital inclination angle of 86.6°. The derived primary mass for 2M?1533+3759, 0.376±0.055 M _⊙, is significantly lower than the canonical mass (0.48 M _⊙) found for most previously investigated sdB stars. This implies an initial progenitor mass >1.8 M _⊙, at least a main sequence A star and perhaps even one massive enough to undergo non-degenerate helium ignition.     

Detecting infiltration and impacts of introduced water using strontium isotopes

Water introduced to surface drainages, such as agricultural and roadway runoff, mine drainage, or coalbed natural gas (CBNG)-produced water, potentially can be of environmental concern. In order to mitigate potential environmental effects, it may be important to be able to trace water discharged to the surface as it infiltrates and interacts with near-surface aquifers. We have chosen to study water withdrawn during CBNG production for isotope tracing in the hyporheic zone because it poses a variety of economic, environmental, and policy issues in the Rocky Mountain states. Ground water quality must be protected as CBNG water is added to semiarid ecosystems. Strontium (Sr) isotopes are effective fingerprints of the aquifer from which water originates. In this study, CBNG water was found to have a higher (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratio than the local alluvial aquifer water. This measurable difference allows the strontium isotope ratio and concentration to be used as tracers of CBNG water following its discharge to the surface. The dissolution and mobilization of salts from soil are an important contributor to ground water quality degradation. In the Powder River basin of Wyoming, the soils are calcium carbonate-buffered systems. The chemical similarity of strontium to calcium allows it to substitute into calcium minerals and enabled us to use strontium isotopes to identify calcium salts mobilized from the soil. Strontium isotopes are an effective monitor of the source of ions and the volume and direction of introduced water flow in the hyporheic zone.     

Interviewing landed elites in post-war Guatemala

This essay explores the methodological challenges of conducting ethnographic research among economic and managerial elites in Guatemala’s landed sector during the country’s post-war transition. Guatemala’s 34-year civil war ended with peace accords in 1996. From the mid 1990s through 2001, I conducted interviews with leading representatives of the private sector in Guatemala, including the owners and top managers of the country’s sugar plantations. The Guatemalan sugar elite describes itself as the new face of the private sector in Central America, implementing “corporate social responsibility” programs linked to the World Bank and other international agencies. Questions of access and interview dynamics are often discussed in relation to qualitative research on “elites.” Yet, I found the interview process to be less complicated than I anticipated. Of greater concern were the problems of research dissemination and praxis. The experience discussed here raises questions about whether research on particular elite groups can be sustained over long periods of time.     

Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

Nitrogen Uptake by Native and Invasive Temperate Coastal Macrophytes: Importance of Dissolved Organic Nitrogen

We investigated if the success of the invasive common reed Phragmites australis could be attributed to a competitive ability to use dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) when compared to the dominant macrophyte Spartina alterniflora in tidal wetlands. Short-term nutrient uptake experiments were performed in the laboratory on two genetic lineages of Phragmites (native and introduced to North America) and S. alterniflora. Our results provide the first evidence for direct assimilation of DON by temperate marsh plants and indicate that amino acids are assimilated intact by all plant types at similar rates. Both Phragmites lineages had significantly greater urea–N assimilation rates than S. alterniflora, and the affinity for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species was the greatest in native Phragmites > introduced Phragmites > S. alterniflora. Field studies demonstrated uptake of both DON and DIN in similar proportion as those determined in the laboratory experiments. Based on these uptake rates, we estimate that DON has the potential to account for up to 47% of N demand for Phragmites plants, and up to 24% for S. alterniflora plants. Additionally, we suggest that differences in N uptake between native and introduced Phragmites lineages explain one mechanism for the success of the introduced type under increasingly eutrophic conditions.     

The water impacts of climate change mitigation measures

A variety of proposed activities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions will impact on scarce water resources, which are coming under increasing pressure in many countries due to population growth and shifting weather patterns. However, the integrated analysis of water and carbon impacts has been given limited attention in greenhouse mitigation planning. In this Australian case study, we analyse a suite of 74 mitigation measures ranked as highest priority by one influential analysis, and we find that they have highly variable consequences for water quantity. We find: (1) The largest impacts result from land-based sequestration, which has the potential to intercept large quantities of water and reduce catchment yields, estimated to exceed 100 Mm³/MtCO₂-e of carbon mitigated (100,000 l per tonne CO₂-e). (2) Moderate impacts result from some renewable power options, including solar thermal power with a water cost estimated at nearly 4 Mm³/MtCO₂-e. However, the water impacts of solar thermal power facilities could be reduced by designing them to use existing power-related water supplies or to use air or salt-water cooling. (3) Wind power, biogas, solar photovoltaics, energy efficiency and operational improvements to existing power sources can reduce water demand through offsetting the water used to cool thermal power generation, with minor savings estimated at 2 Mm³/MtCO₂-e and amounting to nearly 100 Mm³ of water saved in Australia per annum in 2020. This integrated analysis significantly changes the attractiveness of some mitigation options, compared to the case where water impacts are not considered.     

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.