Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Source and supply of sediment to a shoreline salient in a fringing reef environment

Reef-associated landforms are coupled to the health of the reef ecosystem which produces the sediment that forms and maintains these landforms. However, this connection can make reef-fronted coastlines sensitive to the impacts of climate change, given that any decline in ecosystem health (e.g. decreasing sediment supply) or changes to physical processes (e.g. sea level rise, increasing wave energy) could drive the sediment budgets of these systems into a net erosive state. Therefore, knowledge of both the sediment sources and transport mechanisms is required to predict the sensitivity of reef-associated landforms to future climate change. Here, we examine the benthic habitat composition, sediment characteristics (composition, texture, and age), and transport mechanisms and pathways to understand the interconnections between coastal morphology and the reef system at Tantabiddi, Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. Benthic surveys and sediment composition analysis revealed that although live coral accounts for less than 5% of the benthic cover, coral is the dominant sediment constituent (34% on average). Sediment ages (²³⁸U/²³⁰Th) were mostly found to be thousands of years old, suggesting that the primary sediment source is relic reef material (e.g. Holocene reef framework). Sediment transport across the lagoon was quantified through measurements of ripple migration rates, which were found to be shoreward migrating and responsible for feeding the large shoreline salient in the lee of the reef. The derived sediment fluxes were comparable with previously measured rates of sediment production by bioerosion. These results suggest that sediment budgets of systems dependent on old (>10³ years) source materials may be more resilient to climate change as present-day reef health and community composition (i.e. sources of ‘new’ carbonate production) have limited influence on sediment supply. Therefore, the vulnerability of reef-associated landforms in these systems will be dictated by future changes to mechanisms of sediment generation (e.g. bioerosion) and/or physical processes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new,valid measure of climate change understanding: associations with risk perception

The relationship between climate change understanding and other variables, including risk perception, beliefs, and worldviews, is an important consideration as we work to increase public attention to climate change. Despite significant effort to develop rigorous mechanisms for measuring affective variables, measurement of climate change understanding is often relegated to unvalidated questions or question sets. To remedy this situation, we constructed and analyzed a climate change concept inventory using a suite of validity and reliability steps, including Rasch analysis. The resultant 21-item test has a high degree of validity and reliability for measuring understanding about basic climate change processes. Inventory scores along with other variables were included in a model of climate change risk perception, providing both concurrent validity for the test and new insight into the importance of understanding, worldview, and values on risk perception. We find that environmental beliefs and cultural cognition worldview play a larger role in predicting an individual’s risk perception than knowledge. Implications for addressing climate change are considered.     

Mineralogical and geochemical investigation of clay-rich mine tailings from a closed phosphate mine, Bartow Florida, USA

Clay-rich mine tailings from phosphate mine operations in Florida are a major environmental and economic problem. Options for reclamation and restoration for these tailings are very limited and are fundamentally restricted by poor physical properties such as low mechanical strength, low hydraulic conductivity, and heavy metal content. The major control on these bulk physical properties is the mineralogy of the materials. Eight continuous push borings were obtained to investigate stratigraphy, mineralogy, aspects of geochemistry, and bulk properties of a deposit of clay-rich mine tailings from a phosphate mine near Bartow, Florida that ceased operations in the early 1970s. Stratigraphy is dominated by laminated clay-rich sediment with minor units of silt and sand. An intact kaolinite liner occurs near the impoundment walls and the impoundment floor has approximately 4 m of relief. Moisture content varies from 4.35 to 57.40 wt% and organic content varies from 0.41 to 9.53 wt%. Bulk XRF investigation indicates that the P₂O₅ concentrations vary from approximately 4 to 21 wt%. A very strong correlation (r ² = 0.92) between CaO and P₂O₅ indicates that apatite is a major control on the phosphate. The strong correlation (r ² = 0.77) of Al₂O₃ and TiO₂ suggests that the source materials for this deposit are comparatively uniform. A number of heavy metal elements and trace elements occur. Cr, V, Ni, Cu are interpreted to be in phosphate minerals, largely apatite. Sr and Pb are interpreted to be in both phyllosilicates and phosphate minerals. Two populations of apatite were observed in the clay-sized fraction, one that was Fe and Si- bearing and another that was only Si-bearing. Fe-bearing apatite had Fe₂O₃ contents that varied from 0.38 to 5.32 wt% and SiO₂ contents that varied from 0.90 to 3.32 wt%. The other apatite population had a wider range of SiO₂ contents that varied from 0.77 to 8.80 wt%. TEM imaging shows that apatite grains are dominantly single crystals with lesser amounts of aggregates. Wavellite commonly occurs as individual or clusters of lath-like crystals and the chemical composition differs from the pure aluminium phosphate end member with average concentrations of components being that of CaO (1.57 wt%), Fe₂O₃ (1.98 wt%), SiO₂ (5.94 wt%). In the clay-sized phosphate minerals investigated no fluorine was found above detection limit (approximately 0.15 wt%), nor was any uranium, radium, heavy metal, or REE element detected. The phyllosilicate mineralogy of the deposit is dominated by smectite (montmorillonite with lesser amounts of nontronite), palygorskite, illite and kaolinite. No systematic variation in the relative proportions of phyllosilicates was observed in the clay deposit. Energy dispersive spectroscopy EDS analysis indicates that chemical compositions of phyllosilicates are somewhat typical but overall are enriched with respect to Fe compared to theoretical end members. The relative enrichment of Fe is interpreted to be a primary sedimentary feature. Ca content in smectite minerals is high and may inhibit stabilization using lime or similar methods. The high percentages of montmorillonite and palygorskite explain the high bulk water contents observed. This investigation provides fundamentally new details regarding clay tailing deposits from closed phosphate mines in central Florida which can be used in restoration and reclamation efforts.     

An examination of the radiative and dissipative properties of deep ocean internal tides

In this study, the energy flux and energy dissipation of deep ocean internal tides are examined. Properties of the internal tide from two distinct generation regions are contrasted: the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and the Hawaiian Ridge. Considerable differences are noted for the baroclinic energy flux, u^′p^′, radiated from each site. Radiation from the MAR is relatively rich in high modes, with an energy flux spectral peak at mode 5 and modes 10 and greater accounting for 40% of the total flux. In contrast, Hawaiian Ridge radiation is dominantly composed of modes 1 and 2, with modes 10 and greater accounting for less than 5% of the total flux. Depth integrated energy flux levels are at the MAR site, and at the Hawaiian Ridge. Despite these differences, observed turbulent dissipation rates at these sites are similar in magnitude and depth dependence. Decay scales, estimated as , range from O(100)km to . The mean decay scale based on the MAR data is 230 km, a factor of 3 smaller than at the Hawaiian Ridge site. We demonstrate that the dissipation level scales with the energy flux available in the high modes, which is comparable at both sites, rather than the total energy flux.