蒙特卡罗法在资源评价中的应用

结合陕西灞源地区金矿预测实例,探讨了在蒙特卡罗法应用中潜在矿床总数估计及资源总量概率分布向资源潜力分布转换两个环节的合理实现方法。在一定条件下,矿点空间分布模型和发现过程模型可有效地用于估计潜在矿床总数。通过坐标平移或求截尾分布而将资源总量的概率分布转变为资源潜力的概率分布,可得到较为符合地质实际的评价结果。     

Reconciling approaches to climate change adaptation for Colombian agriculture

The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a national-level assessment of the likely future impacts of climate change on agriculture was performed (Ramirez-Villegas et al. Clim Chang 115:611–628, 2012, RV2012). The study diagnosed key challenges directly affecting major crops and regions within the Colombian agricultural system and suggested a number of actions thought to facilitate adaptation, while refraining from proposing specific strategies at local scales. Further insights on the study were published by Feola (2013) (F2013), who stressed the need for transformative adaptation processes to reduce vulnerability particularly of resource-limited farmers, and the benefits of a predominantly stakeholder-led approach to adaptation. We clarify that the recommendations outlined in RV2012 were not intended as a recipe for multi-scale adaptation, but rather a set of actions that are required to diagnose and develop adaptation actions particularly at governmental levels in coordination with national and international adaptation initiatives. Such adaptation actions ought to be, ideally, a product of inclusive sub-sectorial assessments, which can take different forms. We argue that Colombian agriculture as a whole would benefit from a better outlining of adaptation needs across temporal scales in sub-sectorial assessments that take into account both RV2012 and F2013 orientations to adaptation. We conclude with two case studies of research on climate change impacts and adaptation developed in Colombia that serve as examples of realistic, productive sectorial and sub-national assessments.     

The Oxford Principles

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.     

四川渠县三叠系膏盐沉积环境探讨

四川渠县三叠系膏盐产于碳酸盐岩中,二者交互沉积,具明显的旋回性。根据岩性组合、生物组合、沉积构造及地球化学特征分析,该区碳酸盐岩形成于潮下至潮上的各种环境,而膏盐则主要沉积于潮上带的浅水盆地和大陆盐湖。     

南秦岭主要类型热水沉积岩的REE地球化学

南秦岭泥盆纪沉积柱中产有多种类型海底热水沉积岩．它们的ΣＲＥＥ偏低（平均６３．０９×１０－６），ＲＥＥ配分曲线平缓右倾，Ｌａ／Ｙｂ＝２～８，Ｃｅ亏损，总体上与海水相似。产于Ｓｅｄｅｘ含矿层中的热水沉积岩具有正Ｅｕ异常，与现代海底热液及红海热液沉积物可比；而产在Ｓｅｄｅｘ含矿层以下地层中的热水沉积岩Ｅｕ亏损，与ＥＰＲ热液沉积物相似。ＲＥＥ地球化学研究和岩石学研究结果一致，支持热水沉积岩ＲＥＥ来源于海水及部分下伏沉积柱（包括基底），含矿热水沉积岩是盆地热演化到一定阶段具有一定深度和规模的循环对流体系在海底的化学沉积，而Ｓｅｄｅｘ含矿层以下地层中的热水沉积岩则是浅部热水对流循环的海底显示．成岩和变质作用对岩石的ＲＥＥ未造成影响。     

Variations in dissolved CO2 and CH4 in a first‐order stream and catchment: an investigation of soil–stream linkages

Spatial and seasonal variations in CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations in streamwater and adjacent soils were studied at three sites on Brocky Burn, a headwater stream draining a peatland catchment in upland Britain. Concentrations of both gases in the soil atmosphere were significantly higher in peat and riparian soils than in mineral soils. Peat and riparian soil CO₂ concentrations varied seasonally, showing a positive correlation with air and soil temperature. Streamwater CO₂ concentrations at the upper sampling site, which mostly drained deep peats, varied from 2·8 to 9·8 mg l^?1 (2·5 to 11·9 times atmospheric saturation) and decreased markedly downstream. Temperature‐related seasonal variations in peat and riparian soil CO₂ were reflected in the stream at the upper site, where 77% of biweekly variation was explained by an autoregressive model based on: (i) a negative log‐linear relationship with stream flow; (ii) a positive linear relationship with soil CO₂ concentrations in the shallow riparian wells; and (iii) a negative linear relationship with soil CO₂ concentrations in the shallow peat wells, with a significant 2‐week lag term. These relationships changed markedly downstream, with an apparent decrease in the soil–stream linkage and a switch to a positive relationship between stream flow and stream CO₂. Streamwater CH₄ concentrations also declined sharply downstream, but were much lower (<0·01 to 0·12 mg l^?1) than those of CO₂ and showed no seasonal variation, nor any relationship with soil atmospheric CH₄ concentrations. However, stream CH₄ was significantly correlated with stream flow at the upper site, which explained 57% of biweekly variations in dissolved concentrations. We conclude that stream CO₂ can be a useful integrative measure of whole catchment respiration, but only at sites where the soil–stream linkage is strong. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probing the wind–wind collision in γ2 Velorum with high-resolution Chandra X-ray spectroscopy: evidence for sudden radiative braking and non-equilibrium ionization

We present a new analysis of an archived Chandra HETGS X-ray spectrum of the WR+O colliding wind binary γ² Velorum. The spectrum is dominated by emission lines from astrophysically abundant elements: Ne, Mg, Si, S and Fe. From a combination of broad-band spectral analysis and an analysis of line flux ratios we infer a wide range of temperatures in the X-ray-emitting plasma (∼4–40 MK). As in the previously published analysis, we find the X-ray emission lines are essentially unshifted, with a mean FWHM of  1240 ± 30 km s⁻¹  . Calculations of line profiles based on hydrodynamical simulations of the wind–wind collision predict lines that are blueshifted by a few hundred  km s⁻¹  . The lack of any observed shift in the lines may be evidence of a large shock-cone opening half-angle (>85°), and we suggest this may be evidence of sudden radiative braking. From the R and G ratios measured from He-like forbidden-intercombination-resonance triplets we find evidence that the Mg  xi emission originates from hotter gas closer to the O star than the Si  xiii emission, which suggests that non-equilibrium ionization may be present.     

Intrinsic variational equations for conservative dynamical systems withN degrees of freedom

For a conservative dynamical system withn deg. of freedom we show that the equations of variation along an orbit may be written with respect to an orthonormal moving frame (a generalized Frenet frame) in which the tangential variation is given by a quadrature and the normal andn-2 binormal variations are solutions ofn-1 coupled second order equations of the form of Hill's equation.     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.