A hybrid approach to improving the skills of seasonal climate outlook at the regional scale

A hybrid seasonal forecasting approach was generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational Climate Forecast System (CFS) and its nesting Climate extension of Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model to improve forecasting skill over the United States. Skills for the three summers of 2011–2013 were evaluated regarding location, timing, magnitude, and frequency. Higher spatial pattern correlation coefficients showed that the hybrid approach substantially improved summer mean precipitation and 2-m temperature geographical distributions compared with the results of the CFS and CWRF models. The area mean temporal correlation coefficients demonstrated that the hybrid approach also consistently improved the timing prediction skills for both variables. In general, the smaller root mean square errors indicated that the hybrid approach reduced the magnitude of the biases for both precipitation and temperature. The greatest improvements were achieved when the individual models had similar skills. The comparison with a North American multi-model ensemble further proved the feasibility of improving real-time seasonal forecast skill by using the hybrid approach, especially for heavy rain forecasting. Based on the complementary advantages of CFS the global model and CWRF the nesting regional model, the hybrid approach showed a substantial enhancement over CFS real-time forecasts during the summer. Future works are needed for further improving the quality of the hybrid approach through CWRF’s optimized physics ensemble, which has been proven to be feasible and reliable.     

A new North Atlantic Oscillation index and its variability

A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and     

下投式探空资料对Debby飓风路径预报影响的数值试验

在飓风路径的数值预报中，对于初始场的要求很高，然而，由于初始资料的缺乏，经常导致路径预报的误差较大，尤其是当飓风处于远离陆地的海上时，这种误差更大，通过利用UM模式在Debby飓风活动期间，对下投式探空仪所获取探空资料，采用不同使用方案的三个时次共计10次数值试验的结论分析，给出一些有意义的 结论，即非实时资料对实时资料的有效补充，能够提高飓风路径预报精度，而在众多气象要素场中，风场和湿度场对飓风路径预报的影响更大。     

大型缓倾煤矿采空区稳定性评价研究

煤矿采空区稳定性的影响因素众多,为了更好地解决大型缓倾煤矿采空区稳定性评价问题,通过FLAC 3D有限差分软件对采空区的多种开采工况进行数值模拟,提出了影响该类采空区稳定性的主要因素,并在此基础上采用层次分析法(AHP)进一步确定各影响因素的权重。针对山西中阳县多家煤矿采空区稳定性问题,根据影响因素综合评分表对各个影响因素进行评分赋值,最终计算得到采空区稳定性总得分,由此综合判定采空区稳定性等级。这种稳定性评价方法得出的结果与采空区地表位移变形观测法评价得出的结果相符,研究成果对类似采空区稳定性评价具有重要的借鉴参考意义。     

Abundance of larval rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) in relation to the maximum turbidity zone and associated macroplanktonic fauna of the middle St. Lawrence estuary

We tested the hypothesis that the distribution and retention of larval smelt (Osmerus mordax) in the middle estuary of the St. Lawrence River is related to the maintenance of other planktonic organisms in the maximum turbidity zone (MTZ). We documented the horizontal and vertical distribution of larval smelt, macrozooplankton, and suspended particulate matter over four tidal cycles at each of three stations located along the major axis of the turbid upstream portion of the middle estuary. During summer, the turbid, warm, and low salinity waters of the two upstream stations were characterized byNeomysis americana, Gammarus sp. (principallyG. tigrinus), larval smelt,Mysis stenolepsis, andCrangon septemspinosus. The more stratified and less turbid waters of the downstream station were characterized by a coastal marine macrozooplanktonic community and the almost total absence of smelt larvae. Within the MTZ, the distribution ofN. americana coincided with the zone of longest average advective replacement times (null zone). Smelt larvae were distributed further upstream within the MTZ thanN. americana. Overall, larger larvae were distributed further upstream than smaller larvae. The relationship between turbidity and larval density at a specific time was weak (due to resuspension of sediments but not larvae), but the mechanism responsible for producing higher residence times for both sediment and larvae on a longer term basis appears the same. The daily movement and skewed nature of the null zone (due to the general cyclonic circulation of the middle estuary) defines a geographic zone over which the larval smelt population oscillates and remains despite the mean downstream velocities over the water column.     

Soil-zone microfabrics in calcrete and in desiccation cracks from the upper Jurassic purbeck formation of dorset

Soil-zone microfabrics, alveolar-septal structure, needle-fibre calcite, and calcans are described from horizontal calcrete layers, stringers, and infillings in vertical desiccation cracks from an Upper Jurassic limestone in the Lower Purbeck Formation of Dorset. These calcrete palaeosols occur in an oolitic limestone (the Hard Cap) which represents former evaporitic lagoonal to carbonate mudflat environments. The calcretes occur 6-10 cm below the Great Dirt Bed, a former rendzina soil with rooted tree remains. Desiccation cracks and vugs formed in the oolitic sediment before Great Dirt Bed times. After formation of the Great Dirt Bed, soil-water rich in dissolved CaCO₃ preferentially flowed through natural conduits in the underlying sediment, namely the desiccation cracks and vugs. Calcrete precipitated in these cracks and vugs around decaying plant roots, and probably, during more arid (evaporative) climatic periods. These palaeosol microfabrics are among the first to be described from the British Jurassic and were probably preserved due to the semiarid Lower Purbeck climate where rapid oxidation of organic matter limited the amount and strength of carbonic acid generation, thereby limiting extensive dissolution of early formed soil-zone carbonate. Early diagenetic cementation of the sediment also aided microfabric preservation by sealing off soil-zone structures from subsequent diagenetic fluids.     

Inverse relationship between D/H fractionation in cyanobacterial lipids and salinity in Christmas Island saline ponds

Sediments from 28 saline and hypersaline (salinity 13.6-149.2) ponds on Christmas Island (Kiritimati), in the Central tropical Pacific Ocean, were investigated for the effect of salinity on the D/H ratios of lipid biomarkers. Hydrogen isotope ratios (expressed as δD values) of total lipid extracts, and individual hydrocarbons heptadecane, heptadecene, octadecane, octadecene, diploptene, and phytene from cyanobacteria, became increasingly enriched in deuterium as salinity increased, spanning a range of 100‰, while lake water δD values spanned a range of just 12‰. Net D/H fractionation between lipids and source water thus decreased as salinity increased. Isotope fractionation factors (α_lipid-water) were strongly correlated with salinity, and increased in all compound classes studied by up to 0.0967 over a salinity range of 136. Differences in the hydrogen isotopic composition of lipids derived from three biosynthetic pathways (acetogenic, mevalonate, and non-mevalonate) remained similar irrespective of the salinity. This suggests that the mechanism responsible for the observed α_lipid-water-salinity relationship originates prior to the last common biosynthetic branching point, the Calvin Cycle. We propose that a decrease in the exchange of intra- and extra-cellular (ambient) water resulting from down-regulation or closure of water channels (aquaporins) within cyanobacterial cell membranes, and subsequent isotopic enrichment of the intracellular water, likely resulting from metabolic reactions. These findings imply that caution must be exercised when attempting to reconstruct source water δD values using lipid δD values from environments that may have experienced salinity variations. On the other, hand our results can be used to establish a paleo-salinity proxy based on lipid δD, if additional constraints on source water δD values can be made.     

雁荡山世界地质公园火山岩年代学研究

雁荡山是中国第一个以中生代火山为主题的世界地质公园.长期以来,关于雁荡山火山岩时代及其层位归属存在争议.为了配合世界地质公园的申报、建设并提高其科学研究程度,笔者等对雁荡山火山岩开展了系统的同位素年代学研究.自下而上3个火山地层单元的锆石SHRIMPU-Pb年龄测定表明,雁荡山火山岩的形成时代为97.2~105.6Ma,属于早白垩世晚期;经区域地层对比,确定其层位应归属永康群小平田组,这为整个浙东、乃至与闽东之间的晚中生代火山-沉积地层系统划分与对比,提供了重要地质依据.     

小秦岭西南部金矿形成地质背景及成矿远景预测

本文在对小秦岭西南部灞源张家坪地区金矿形成地质背景的分析基础上，重点阐述了该区控制工业矿体的主要地质条件，包括控矿构造、岩浆岩、赋矿地层及热液活动等条件。最后通过对本区成矿地质条件及金矿化特征的总体评价，对金的成矿远景进行了地质预测，指出找到特大型或大型金矿床的希望不大，而可能在某些地带找到几处中等规模的矿床。