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21.
Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction. 相似文献
22.
The available data on known reserves of extracted resources have not previously been tabulated and graphed. In this article we compile the reserves data in one place for the first time. This serves to (1) show the trends in the reserves series, (2) make the series available to others, and (3) place the reserves data in the context of price data for which longer series have been available, and with which they can now be seen to be consistent in both showing increasing availability rather than increasing scarcity. 相似文献
23.
Continental flood basalts are usually regarded as a single tectonomagmatic entity but frequently quoted examples exhibit a variety of tectonic settings. In one well-studied, classic, flood basalt province, the Mesozoic Karoo province of southern Africa, magmatism occurred in the following tectonic settings: (a) continental rifting leading to ocean-floor spreading in the South Atlantic Ocean (Etendeka suite of Namibia); (b) stretched continental lithosphere and rifting not leading directly to ocean-floor formation (Lebombo suite of southeastern Africa); and (c) an a-tectonic, within-plate, continental setting characterized by an absence of faulting or warping (Lesotho highlands and Karoo dolerites of South Africa). By means of spidergrams of the elements Rb, Ba, Th, Nb, K, La, Ce, Sr, Nd, P, Hf, Zr, Sm, Ti, Tb, Y, V, Ni and Cr, uncontaminated tholeiites from (c) above [i.e. the Lesotho-type continental flood basalts (LTCFB)] are compared with mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB), ocean-island tholeiites (OIT), and tholeiites and calc-alkali basalts from subduction environments. The comparison reveals the LTCFBs are geochemically distinct. The differences are reflected in relative enrichments or depletions of the more incompatible elements (Rb-Ce) to less incompatible elements (Ce-Y), i.e. the overall slope of the spidergrams, and in anomalous enrichments or depletions of one or more of the elements Th, K, Nb, Sr, Ti, Hf, and Zr. The distinctive geochemical character of the Lesotho LTCFBs is interpreted in terms of a lithospheric mantle source for the basalts. This is supported by isotopic data. There are no major geochemical differences between Lesotho CFBs and basalts of the rift-related Etendeka and Lebombo suites, although the latter are somewhat enriched in Rb, Ba and K. However, unlike the Lesotho basalts, the Lebombo and Etendeka basalts are associated with voluminous silicic volcanics or intrusive centres and late-stage dolerites having MORB/OIT (i.e. asthenospheric) geochemical characteristics. The flood basalt/silicic magmatism/late-stage dyke swarm association is characteristic of several rift or thinned lithosphere environments (e.g., Ethiopia, Skye, eastern Greenland) but in many of these the flood basalts have ocean-island basalt (OIT) geochemical characteristics. The Lesotho-type CFB geochemistry is exhibited by the Grande Ronde Basalt of the Columbia River Group (a possible subduction-related flood basalt province) and the basic rocks associated with Mesozoic rifting in the North and South Atlantic. Basalt geochemistry alone is unhelpful in determining the tectonic setting of CFBs although the rift-related environments may be identified by the petrology and geochemistry of the whole igneous suite. A two-source model is proposed for the mantle-derived basic rocks in rift-related CFB provinces. Early enriched basalts are derived from the lithosphere and, following pronounced lithospheric attenuation or rifting, later MORB-like melts are emplaced from the rising asthenosphere. The presence of both Lesotho- and OIT-type geochemical patterns in rift-related CFBs suggests that the lithosphere exhibits different styles of enrichment. 相似文献
24.
Seismic tomography shows that upwelling beneath Iceland is confined to the upper mantle 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
25.
26.
The effect of the long‐period filter cut‐off, Tc, on elastic spectral displacements is investigated using a strong ground‐motion database from Europe and the Middle East. The relation between the filter and oscillator responses is considered to observe the influence of Tc for both analogue and digital records, and the variations with site classification, magnitude, filter order and viscous damping. Robust statistics are derived using the re‐processed European data to generalize the effects of the long‐period filter cut‐off on maximum oscillator deformation demands as a function of these seismological and structural features. Statistics with a 95% confidence interval are derived to suggest usable period ranges for spectral displacement computations as a function of Tc. The results indicate that the maximum period at which spectral displacements can be confidently calculated depend strongly on the site class, magnitude and filter order. The period range where reliable long‐period information can be extracted from digital accelerograms is twice that of analogue records. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
27.
Julian M. Szeicz Barbara A. Zeeb K.D. Bennett John P. Smol 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1998,20(3):235-252
A 1600 year paleoecological record of environmental change is developed from a small lake in the Nothofagus forest of southern Chile (45.5°S, 72°W). High resolution fossil pollen, charcoal, sedimentological, and chrysophycean stomatocyst analyses are used to investigate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on terrestrial and lacustrine environments. Chronological control is based on a combination of 210Pb and 14C dating. Temporal resolution during the past 150–200 yr is ca. 8 yr/sample. The macroscopic charcoal record correlates very closely with historical and dendroecological records of 20th century anthropogenic burning in this region. The chrysophyte stratigraphy indicates that this burning had immediate impacts on the lake itself, while the pollen record provides evidence for a succession of vegetation changes lagging slightly behind the disturbance. These palynological changes are very similar to the pollen signal of European disturbance in northeastern North America. Pre-European shifts in chrysophyte assemblages may be due to the influence of earthquake activity on the lake, though there is no corroborative evidence in the pollen or charcoal records. This study demonstrates that high resolution paleoecological methods can be used to help bridge the temporal gap between traditional ecological and paleoecological studies of environmental change in the temperate forests of southern South America. 相似文献
28.
29.
Accretion disks orbiting black holes power high-energy systems such as X-ray binaries and Active Galactic Nuclei. Observations
are providing increasingly detailed quantitative information about such systems. This data has been interpreted using standard
toy-models that rely on simplifying assumptions such as regular flow geometry and a parameterized stress. Global numerical
simulations offer a way to investigate the basic physical dynamics of accretion flows without these assumptions and, in principle,
lead to a genuinely predictive theory. In recent years we have developed a fully three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic
simulation code that evolves time-dependent inflows into Kerr black holes. Although the resulting global simulations of black
hole accretion are still somewhat simplified, they have brought to light a number of interesting results. These include the
formation of electro-magnetically dominated jets powered by the black hole’s rotation, and the presence of strong stresses
in the plunging region of the accretion flow. The observational consequences of these features are gradually being examined.
Increasing computer power and increasingly sophisticated algorithms promise a bright future for the computational approach
to black hole accretion. 相似文献
30.
Julian C. Green 《水文研究》2005,19(6):1245-1259
Aquatic macrophytes are often the dominant factor influencing flow conditions within the channels they occupy. Existing knowledge of how stream plants affect the flow is outlined, and the different scales at which vegetation resistance operates are proposed. Resistance is shown to be a function of the size of the plants, their structural properties, location in the channel, and the local flow conditions. Current models to calculate this composite resistance effect are assessed in the light of theoretical considerations of the nature of vegetation resistance. New theory is also presented, which demonstrates the non‐linear relationship between channel resistance and the proportion of the channel occupied by vegetation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献