Spatiotemporal estimation of snow depth using point data from snow stakes,digital terrain models,and satellite data

Snow availability in Alpine catchments plays an important role in water resources management. In this paper, we propose a method for an optimal estimation of snow depth (areal extension and thickness) in Alpine systems from point data and satellite observations by using significant explanatory variables deduced from a digital terrain model. It is intended to be a parsimonious approach that may complement physical‐based methodologies. Different techniques (multiple regression, multicriteria analysis, and kriging) are integrated to address the following issues: We identify the explanatory variables that could be helpful on the basis of a critical review of the scientific literature. We study the relationship between ground observations and explanatory variables using a systematic procedure for a complete multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression models are calibrated combining all suggested model structures and explanatory variables. We also propose an evaluation of the models (using indices to analyze the goodness of fit) and select the best approaches (models and variables) on the basis of multicriteria analysis. Estimation of the snow depth is performed with the selected regression models. The residual estimation is improved by applying kriging in cases with spatial correlation. The final estimate is obtained by combining regression and kriging results, and constraining the snow domain in accordance with satellite data. The method is illustrated using the case study of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southern Spain). A cross‐validation experiment has confirmed the efficiency of the proposed procedure. Finally, although it is not the scope of this work, the snow depth is used to asses a first estimation of snow water equivalent resources.     

Three‐dimensional shakedown solutions for anisotropic cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads

Previous work on three‐dimensional shakedown analysis of cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads has been entirely for isotropic materials. As a result, the effects of anisotropy, both elastic and plastic, of soil and pavement materials are ignored. This paper will, for the first time, develop three‐dimensional shakedown solutions to allow for the variation of elastic and plastic material properties with direction. Melan's lower‐bound shakedown theorem is used to derive shakedown solutions. In particular, a generalised, anisotropic Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and cross‐anisotropic elastic stress fields are utilised to develop anisotropic shakedown solutions. It is found that shakedown solutions for anisotropic materials are dominated by Young's modulus ratio for the cases of subsurface failure and by shear modulus ratio for the cases of surface failure. Plastic anisotropy is mainly controlled by material cohesion ratio, the rise of which increases the shakedown limit until a maximum value is reached. The anisotropic shakedown limit varies with frictional coefficient, and the peak value may not occur for the case of normal loading only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sima de los Huesos (Burgos,northern Spain): palaeoenvironment and habitats of Homo heidelbergensis during the Middle Pleistocene

Interpreting how environmental dynamics respond to global climate change and how this has affected human evolution and dispersal is an on-going topic of debate. During the early Middle Pleistocene (～0.6–0.4 Ma), as compared to earlier, environmental conditions were relatively more stable, with longer climatic cycles alternating between open and forested landscapes. During this interval, humans spread successfully providing an important number of fossil sites where fossils or tools are reported. The Atapuerca-Sima de los Huesos (Burgos, northern Spain) site (Atapuerca-SH) is one of the earliest localities with hominin evidence in the European Middle Pleistocene, with the most important accumulation of Homo heidelbergensis so far. We have analyzed the abundant faunal record from Sima de los Huesos, which is mainly comprised of carnivores, in order to approach an interpretation of the palaeoenvironmental circumstances where these hominids inhabited within the Sierra. Other sites from Sierra de Atapuerca referred to the same Faunal Unit (FU 6), are roughly contemporaneous, and include important ungulates, which are here analyzed with Atapuerca-SH. Additional information provided by isotopic analysis helps elucidate the ancient ecology of taxa present in Sima de los Huesos allowing for an accurate portrayal of the setting in which humans lived. The timing of the spread of Homo heidelbergensis is dominated by a relative climatic and environmental stability and points to a landscape dominated by savannah-like open woodland.     

Slab–mantle flow interaction: influence on subduction dynamics and duration

We investigate the influence of mantle flow relative to the lithosphere on subduction dynamics. We use 2D thermo‐mechanical models assuming incompressible non‐Newtonian fluid rheology. Different mantle flow velocities consistent with absolute plate motion models are tested, as well as both directions of flow, either sustaining or opposing slab dip. The effects of different inflow/outflow velocity profiles, slab strengths and upper–lower mantle viscosity contrasts are also evaluated. Slab dip deviations between models with opposite mantle flow directions range from 37° for relatively strong slabs (η_max = 10²⁵ Pa s) to 50° for weaker slabs (η_max = 10²⁴ Pa s), accounting for a significant amount of natural slab dip variability. For imposed mantle flow supporting the slab, the initial stage of slab steepening is followed by a stage of continuous slab dip decrease. This slab shallowing eventually leads to mantle wedge closure, subduction cessation and slab break‐off, possibly driving subduction flips.     

New graphical methods for estimating aquifer hydraulic parameters using pumping tests with exponentially decreasing rates

Actual pumping tests may involve continuously decreasing rates over a certain period of time, and the hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (S_s) of the tested confined aquifer cannot be interpreted from the classical constant‐rate test model. In this study, we revisit the aquifer drawdown characteristics of a pumping test with an exponentially decreasing rate using the dimensionless analytical solution for such a variable‐rate model. The drawdown may decrease with time for a short period of time at intermediate pumping times for such pumping tests. A larger ratio of initial to final pumping rate and a smaller radial distance of the observation well will enhance the decreasing feature. A larger decay constant results in an earlier decrease, but it weakens the extent of such a decrease. Based on the proposed dimensionless transformation, we have proposed two graphical methods for estimating K and S_s of the tested aquifer. The first is a new type curve method that does not employ the well function as commonly done in standard type curve analysis. Another is a new analytic method that takes advantage of the decreasing features of aquifer drawdown during the intermediate pumping stage. We have demonstrated the applicability and robustness of the two new graphical methods for aquifer characterization through a synthetic pumping test.     

Variability in the vertical hyporheic water exchange affected by hydraulic conductivity and river morphology at a natural confluent meander bend

River confluences and their associated tributaries are key morphodynamic nodes that play important roles in controlling hydraulic geometry and hyporheic water exchange in fluvial networks. However, the existing knowledge regarding hyporheic water exchange associated with river confluence morphology is relatively scarce. On January 14 and 15, 2016, the general hydraulic and morphological characteristics of the confluent meander bend (CMB) between the Juehe River and the Haohe River in the southern region of Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, were investigated. The patterns and magnitudes of vertical hyporheic water exchange (VHWE) were estimated based on a one‐dimensional heat steady‐state model, whereas the sediment vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) was calculated via in situ permeameter tests. The results demonstrated that 6 hydrodynamic zones and their extensions were observed at the CMB during the test period. These zones were likely controlled by the obtuse junction angle and low momentum flux ratio, influencing the sediment grain size distribution of the CMB. The VHWE patterns at the test site during the test period mostly showed upwelling flow dominated by regional groundwater discharging into the river. The occurrence of longitudinal downwelling and upwelling patterns along the meander bend at the CMB was likely subjected to the comprehensive influences of the local sinuosity of the meander bend and regional groundwater discharge and finally formed regional and local flow paths. Additionally, in dominated upwelling areas, the change in VHWE magnitudes was nearly consistent with that in K_v values, and higher values of both variables generally occurred in erosional zones near the thalweg paths of the CMB, which were mostly made up of sand and gravel. This was potentially caused by the erosional and depositional processes subjected to confluence morphology. Furthermore, lower K_v values observed in downwelling areas at the CMB were attributed to sediment clogging caused by local downwelling flow. The confluence morphology and sediment K_v are thus likely the driving factors that cause local variations in the VHWE of fluvial systems.     

Carboniferous eclogite and garnet–omphacite granulite from northeastern Hainan Island,South China: Implications for the evolution of the eastern Palaeo‐Tethys

High‐P (HP) eclogite and associated garnet–omphacite granulite have recently been discovered in the Mulantou area, northeastern Hainan Island, South China. These rocks consist mainly of garnet, omphacite, hornblende, quartz and rutile/ilmenite, with or without zoisite and plagioclase. Textural relationships, mineral compositions and thermobarometric calculations demonstrate that the eclogite and garnet–omphacite granulite share the same three‐stage metamorphic evolution, with prograde, peak and retrograde P?T conditions of 620–680°C and 8.7–11.1 kbar, 820–860°C and 17.0–18.2 kbar, and 700–730°C and 7.1–8.5 kbar respectively. Sensitive high‐resolution ion microprobe U–Pb zircon dating, coupled with the identification of mineral inclusions in zircon, reveals the formation of mafic protoliths before 355 Ma, prograde metamorphism at c. 340–330 Ma, peak to retrograde metamorphism at c. 310–300 Ma, and subsequent pegmatite intrusion at 295 Ma. Trace element geochemistry shows that most of the rocks have a MORB affinity, with initial ε_Nd values of +2.4 to +6.7. As with similar transitional eclogite–HP granulite facies rocks in the thickened root in the European Variscan orogen, the occurrence of relatively high P?T metamorphic rocks of oceanic origin in northeastern Hainan Island suggests Carboniferous oceanic subduction leading to collision of the Hainan continental block, or at least part of it, with the South China Block in the eastern Palaeo‐Tethyan tectonic domain.     

青海省祁漫塔格地区1∶5万水系沉积物测量衬值异常圈定实例

青海省祁漫塔格地区位于柴达木盆地西南缘,是青海省重要的铁多金属成矿基地之一。利用88442个野外采样点1∶5万水系沉积物测量数据,采用Geo Expl软件圈定了该地区的衬值异常。衬值是指各元素0.5 km×0.5 km网格化数据与其园域搜索半径5km、移动步长0.5km移动平均值的比值。选用自定义累频"90、95、98、100"确定了异常的外、中、内带。通过常规方法和衬值圈定的异常的对比,表明衬值异常能够削弱不同地质背景差异,使异常形态更为规整,浓集中心更为明显,并且可能发现新异常。