Stratigraphic evidence for anthropogenically induced coastal environmental change from Oaxaca, Mexico

Previous interdisciplinary paleoenvironmental and archaeological research along the Río Verde Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico, showed that Holocene erosion in the highland valleys of the upper drainage basin triggered geomorphic changes in the river's coastal floodplain. This article uses stratigraphic data from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Pastoría, an estuary in the lower Río Verde Valley, to examine changes in coastal geomorphology potentially triggered by highland erosion. Coastal lagoon sediments contain a stratigraphically and chronologically distinct record of major hurricane strikes during late Holocene times. Three distinct storm facies are identified from sediment cores obtained from Laguna Pastoría, which indicate that profound coastal environmental changes occurred within the region and are correlated with increased sediment supplied from highland erosion. The Chione/Laevicardium facies was deposited in an open bay while the Mytella/barnacle facies and sand facies were deposited in an enclosed lagoon following bay barrier formation. We argue that highland erosion triggered major geomorphic changes in the lowlands including bay barrier formation by 2500 cal yr B.P. These environmental changes may have had significant effects on human populations in the region. The lagoon stratigraphy further indicates an increase in mid–late Holocene hurricane activity, possibly caused by increased El Niño frequencies.     

Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.     

Limiting hydrochemical factors for sustainability of water resources: The Cisjordanian experience

In Cisjordan, surface- and groundwater flow are either towards the Jordan Valley-Dead Sea-Arava Valley (the Rift) or the Mediterranean Sea. Due to upstream exploitation by riparians to the Jordan River, the historical annual flow, which fluctuated between 250 and 1100 Mm³, has declined to a mere 100-200 Mm³. The remaining flow south of Lake Kinneret is highly polluted and heavily loaded with salts. Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) is one of the major water resources in the area. Annually, between 200 and 700 Mm³ reach the Lake as surface and groundwater flow. The relatively high salinity of the Lake is caused by thermomineral water discharging from springs and seepages located onshore and on the bottom of the Lake. The main factors causing deterioration of the groundwater quality in the Rift are of geogenic character. These are different types of brines, whose outflow and penetration into freshwater aquifers was triggered by overpumpage. Contemporary encroachment of seawater caused by intensive water exploitation in the Coastal Plain is manageable and reversible. However, due to lack of hydrogeological evidence, no such statement can be made about the circulation of seawater beneath the Coastal Plain and into the deep-seated Yarkon-Taninim aquifer or the upflow of brines in the Rift.The flow regimes of the different brine bodies could not be elucidated. Whether each such brine-body flows by its particular hydrological regime or whether the movement of the different bodies is intradependent or interdependent with the regional movement of fresh groundwater, remain open questions. Therefore, sustainable development of groundwater resources is clearly dependent on the elucidation of the relationship between changes in the pressure of the brine with depth and its relationship to the overlying freshwater.The average total annual recharge of all water sources in Cisjordan is 1820 Mm³, which means that the total production of water must be managed within the limits of this annual volume. During drought years, total groundwater extraction exceeds the safe yield, causing drastic lowering of water levels and upflow of saline waters from greater depths.Because of the structural complexity of aquifers and hydrochemical variability of the numerous groundwater bodies, new hydrochemical methods have been developed for the identification of groundwater bodies and for the elucidation of their origins. These methods combine macrochemical, microchemical, and isotopic evidences. By combining distribution patterns of rare earths, yttrium and stable isotopes, a complete picture of catchment lithology and the altitude and latitude of precipitation could be obtained.The area west of the Jordan River is characterized by the occurrence of transboundary surface- and groundwater basins in which fresh and saline water and brines flow across political borders between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. It is very difficult to assess separately the annual safe yield of water resources for each of the two national entities. Neither country may dispose independently of its waters and is usually at the mercy of the other riparian. There is as yet no general multilateral international treaty in force allocating the water resources of international watercourses. At present there are two rules for the management of the waters of an international drainage basin—the rule of Equitable Distribution, and the obligation Not to Cause Significant Harm. The rules of equitable distribution have tended to focus on the issue of quantities of water rather than on quality of water, which is really relevant to the issue of equitable distribution. Future negotiations on the uses of the basin will need to deal with issues of characteristic salinities and geochemical features and on their impact on equitable sharing of water resources.     

Seasonal warm-water refuge and sanctuary usage by the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in Kings Bay,Citrus County,Florida

The largest Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) aggregation at a natural warm-water site occurs in Kings Bay, Crystal River, FL. In accordance with the Manatee Recovery Plan, manatee protection areas within Kings Bay have been created by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the State of Florida including a year-round refuge designation and seven Federal manatee sanctuaries during the winter manatee season (15 November–31 March). Over the last 30 years, an increase in manatee counts has been observed in Kings Bay which has prompted the need to review existing manatee protection measures. Aerial survey data collected between 1983 and 2012 were used to examine the seasonal change in manatee distribution within Kings Bay to assess the effectiveness of current sanctuary sizes and locations. Regression analysis suggested a significant change in manatee abundance among the winter seasons (p < 0.05). The average winter manatee counts increased by 4.81 animals per year over the 30-year period. Spatially explicit maps using geographic information system (GIS) analysis revealed a strong correlation between high manatee density and artesian springs in Kings Bay during the winter seasons. Highest abundances were identified at three locations: King Spring, Three Sisters Springs, and Magnolia Springs, which coincide with preexisting sanctuary designations. Additional coverage is advocated to support the overflow of manatees outside of sanctuary boundaries. As density patterns were not uniform across summer periods, a consideration of additional boat speed regulations is recommended.     

Adaptation and poverty reduction in Mozambique: an opportunity for developing countries to lead§

Climate change disproportionately impacts the world’s poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of ‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability’, and the United States’ commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries’ policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks.     

Predicting long-term urban growth in Beijing (China) with new factors and constraints of environmental change under integrated stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties

Numerous studies related to the simulation and prediction of urban growth to address land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have been conducted in recent years, but very few have considered the impact of climate change, flooding impact, government relocation, corridor cities, and long-term rainfall variations simultaneously. To bridge the gap, this study predicts possible future LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 in Beijing (China), since Beijing is one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world. The proposed integrated modeling analysis covers four key scenarios to reflect the influences of different factors and constraints on LULC changes, in which cellular automata, Markov chain, and multi-criteria evaluation are fully coupled. While fuzzy membership function was used to address the uncertainty associated with the decision analysis, Markov chain, which is regarded as a stochastic process, was applied to predict future urban growth pathways. In addition, a statistical downscaling model driven by possible climate change scenarios was employed to address long-term rainfall variations in Beijing, China. This study differs from previous ones for Beijing in terms of not only the effects of climate change and flooding impact but also the newly-developed economic free trade zone in Xiong’an and the central government’s plan to relocate to the Tongzhou district. Findings indicate that there is no marked difference in LULC over the four key scenarios. Compared to the baseline LULC in 2010, the predicted results indicate that urban expansion is expected to increase more than 6 and 11% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.     

Storm observations by remote sensing and influences of gustiness on ocean waves and on generation of rogue waves

The impact of the gustiness on surface waves under storm conditions is investigated with focus on the appearance of wave groups with extreme high amplitude and wavelength in the North Sea. During many storms characterized by extremely high individual waves measured near the German coast, especially in cold air outbreaks, the moving atmospheric open cells are observed by optical and radar satellites. According to measurements, the footprint of the cell produces a local increase in the wind field at sea surface, moving as a consistent system with a propagation speed near to swell wave-traveling speed. The optical and microwave satellite data are used to connect mesoscale atmospheric turbulences and the extreme waves measured. The parameters of open cells observed are used for numerical spectral wave modeling. The North Sea with horizontal resolution of 2.5?km and with focus on the German Bight was simulated. The wind field “storm in storm,” including moving organized mesoscale eddies with increased wind speed, was generated. To take into account the rapid moving gust structure, the input wind field was updated each 5?min. The test cases idealized with one, two, and four open individual cells and, respectively, with groups of open cells, with and without preexisting sea state, as well the real storm conditions, are simulated. The model results confirm that an individual-moving open cell can cause the local significant wave height increase in order of meters within the cell area and especially in a narrow area of 1–2?km at the footprint center of a cell (the cell's diameter is 40–90?km). In a case of a traveling individual open cell with 15?m·s^?1 over a sea surface with a preexisting wind sea of and swell, a local significant wave height increase of 3.5?m is produced. A group of cells for a real storm condition produces a local increase of significant wave height of more than 6?m during a short time window of 10–20?min (cell passing). The sea surface simulation from modeled wave spectra points out the appearance of wave groups including extreme individual waves with a period of about 25?s and a wavelength of more than 350?m under the cell's footprint. This corresponds well with measurement of a rogue wave group with length of about 400?m and a period of near 25?s. This has been registered at FiNO-1 research platform in the North Sea during Britta storm on November 1, 2006 at 04:00 UTC. The results can explain the appearance of rogue waves in the German Bight and can be used for ship safety and coastal protection. Presently, the considered mesoscale gustiness cannot be incorporated in present operational wave forecasting systems, since it needs an update of the wind field at spatial and temporal scales, which is still not available for such applications. However, the scenario simulations for cell structures with appropriate travel speed, observed by optical and radar satellites, can be done and applied for warning messages.     

New perspectives on eighteen-degree water formation in the North Atlantic

In this report, eighteen-degree water (EDW) formation will be discussed, with emphasis on advances in understanding emerging within the past decade. In particular, a recently completed field study of EDW (CLIMODE) is suggesting that EDW formation within a given winter can have at least two different dominant physics and distinct locations: one type formed in the northern Sargasso Sea, largely away from the strong flows of the Gulf Stream where 1D physics may apply, and a second type formed along the southern flank of the Gulf Stream, in a region where the background vorticity of the flow and cross-frontal mixing play key roles in the convective formation process.