Tumbi Landslide, Papua New Guinea: rainfall induced?

On 24 January 2012, a fatal landslide with an estimated volume of 3 Mm³ hit villagers and infrastructure in the Tagali Valley, Southern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Although a moderate event by PNG standards, the associated human casualties and infrastructure destruction give a human as well as a scientific need to review the potential causes for the event. PNG experiences numerous landslides annually, most of which are trigged either by rainfall events or seismic activity. Here, we review the short-term rainfall patterns leading up to the slope failure at Tumbi Quarry and compare the rainfall accumulations obtained over durations of 30, 60 and 90 days prior to the landslide, with comparable rainfall accumulations obtained for other failures observed in PNG over a 12-year period. Additionally, a review of long-term rainfall over a period of 6 months prior to the failure is completed as well as an assessment of seismic activity. Based on our analysis, we believe a seismic trigger to be very unlikely, while the increase in rainfall in the 2 weeks prior to the failure in conjunction with a high-intensity rainfall event at the end of October 2011 could have had a greater influence in enhancing rather than restraining slope failure. This, in addition to natural denudational processes, geological structure and the anthropogenic activity in the vicinity of the landslide, could all have served to affect slope stability.     

Source partitioning of anthropogenic groundwater nitrogen in a mixed-use landscape,Tutuila, American Samoa

This study presents a modeling framework for quantifying human impacts and for partitioning the sources of contamination related to water quality in the mixed-use landscape of a small tropical volcanic island. On Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, production wells in the most populated region (the Tafuna-Leone Plain) produce most of the island’s drinking water. However, much of this water has been deemed unsafe to drink since 2009. Tutuila has three predominant anthropogenic non-point-groundwater-pollution sources of concern: on-site disposal systems (OSDS), agricultural chemicals, and pig manure. These sources are broadly distributed throughout the landscape and are located near many drinking-water wells. Water quality analyses show a link between elevated levels of total dissolved groundwater nitrogen (TN) and areas with high non-point-source pollution density, suggesting that TN can be used as a tracer of groundwater contamination from these sources. The modeling framework used in this study integrates land-use information, hydrological data, and water quality analyses with nitrogen loading and transport models. The approach utilizes a numerical groundwater flow model, a nitrogen-loading model, and a multi-species contaminant transport model. Nitrogen from each source is modeled as an independent component in order to trace the impact from individual land-use activities. Model results are calibrated and validated with dissolved groundwater TN concentrations and inorganic δ¹⁵N values, respectively. Results indicate that OSDS contribute significantly more TN to Tutuila’s aquifers than other sources, and thus should be prioritized in future water-quality management efforts.     

Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal

We use daily satellite estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during 1998–2005 to show that onset of convection over the central Bay of Bengal (88–92°E, 14–18°N) during the core summer monsoon (mid-May to September) is linked to the meridional gradient of SST in the bay. The SST gradient was computed between two boxes in the northern (88–92°E, 18–22°N) and southern (82–88°E, 4–8°N) bay; the latter is the area of the cold tongue in the bay linked to the Summer Monsoon Current. Convection over central bay followed the SST difference between the northern and southern bay (ΔT) exceeding 0.75°C in 28 cases. There was no instance of ΔT exceeding this threshold without a burst in convection. There were, however, five instances of convection occurring without this SST gradient. Long rainfall events (events lasting more than a week) were associated with an SST event (ΔT ≥ 0.75°C); rainfall events tended to be short when not associated with an SST event. The SST gradient was important for the onset of convection, but not for its persistence: convection often persisted for several days even after the SST gradient weakened. The lag between ΔT exceeding 0.75°C and the onset of convection was 0–18 days, but the lag histogram peaked at one week. In 75% of the 28 cases, convection occurred within a week of ΔT exceeding the threshold of 0.75°C. The northern bay SST, T _N , contributed more to ΔT, but it was a weaker criterion for convection than the SST gradient. A sensitivity analysis showed that the corresponding threshold for T _N was 29°C. We hypothesise that the excess heating (∼1°C above the threshold for deep convection) required in the northern bay to trigger convection is because this excess in SST is what is required to establish the critical SST gradient.     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity II: the discrete-in-time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a discrete-in-time setting. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

Efficiency of kriging estimation for square, triangular, and hexagonal grids

Although several researchers have pointed out some advantages and disadvantages of various soil sampling designs in the presence of spatial autocorrelation, a more detailed study is presented herein which examines the geometrical relationship of three sampling designs, namely the square, the equilateral triangle, and the regular hexagon. Both advantages and disadvantages exist in the use of these designs with respect to estimation of the semivariogram and their effect on the mean square error or variance of error. This research could be used to design optimal sampling strategies; it is based on the theory of regionalized variables, in which the intrinsic hypothesis is satisfied. Among alternative designs, an equilateral triangle design gives the most reliable estimate of the semivariogram. It also gives the minimum maximum mean square error of point estimation of the concentration over the other two designs for the same number of measurements when the nugget effect is small relative to the variance. If the nugget effect is large (.90 ² or more), and the linear sampling density is >0.85r where r is the range, the hexagonal design is best. This study computes and compares the maximum mean square error for each of these designs.     

Characteristic analysis—1981: Final program and a possible discovery

The latest or n ewest version of the char acteristic an alysis (NCHARAN)computer program offers the exploration geologist a wide variety of options for integrating regionalized multivariate data. The options include the selection of regional cells for characterizing deposit models, the selection of variables that constitute the models, and the choice of logical combinations of variables that best represent these models. Moreover, the program provides for the display of results which, in turn, makes possible review, reselection, and refinement of a model. Most important, the performance of the above-mentioned steps in an interactive computing mode can result in a timely and meaningful interpretation of the data available to the exploration geologist. The most recent application of characteristic analysis has resulted in the possible discovery of economic sulfide mineralization in the Grong area in central Norway. Exploration data for 27 geophysical, geological, and geochemical variables were used to construct a mineralized and a lithogeochemical model for an area that contained a known massive sulfide deposit. The models were applied to exploration data collected from the Gjersvik area in the Grong mining district and resulted in the identification of two localities of possible mineralization. Detailed field examination revealed the presence of a sulfide vein system and a partially inverted stratigraphic sequence indicating the possible presence of a massive sulfide deposit at depth.     

Aquifer Storage Recovery (ASR) of chlorinated municipal drinking water in a confined aquifer

About 1.02 × 10⁶ m³ of chlorinated municipal drinking water was injected into a confined aquifer, 94–137 m below Roseville, California, between December 2005 and April 2006. The water was stored in the aquifer for 438 days, and 2.64 × 10⁶ m³ of water were extracted between July 2007 and February 2008. On the basis of Cl⁻ data, 35% of the injected water was recovered and 65% of the injected water and associated disinfection by-products (DBPs) remained in the aquifer at the end of extraction. About 46.3 kg of total trihalomethanes (TTHM) entered the aquifer with the injected water and 37.6 kg of TTHM were extracted. As much as 44 kg of TTHMs remained in the aquifer at the end of extraction because of incomplete recovery of injected water and formation of THMs within the aquifer by reactions with free-chlorine in the injected water. Well-bore velocity log data collected from the Aquifer Storage Recovery (ASR) well show as much as 60% of the injected water entered the aquifer through a 9 m thick, high-permeability layer within the confined aquifer near the top of the screened interval. Model simulations of ground-water flow near the ASR well indicate that (1) aquifer heterogeneity allowed injected water to move rapidly through the aquifer to nearby monitoring wells, (2) aquifer heterogeneity caused injected water to move further than expected assuming uniform aquifer properties, and (3) physical clogging of high-permeability layers is the probable cause for the observed change in the distribution of borehole flow. Aquifer heterogeneity also enhanced mixing of native anoxic ground water with oxic injected water, promoting removal of THMs primarily through sorption. A 3 to 4-fold reduction in TTHM concentrations was observed in the furthest monitoring well 427 m downgradient from the ASR well, and similar magnitude reductions were observed in depth-dependent water samples collected from the upper part of the screened interval in the ASR well near the end of the extraction phase. Haloacetic acids (HAAs) were completely sorbed or degraded within 10 months of injection.     

Landscape and prehistoric chronology of West-Central Jordan

Remnant lake and stream terraces of the Wadi el Hasa (west-central Jordan) are associated with in situ prehistoric sites spanning > 100,000 years. Eighteen radiocarbon dates from cultural and geological deposits on the terraces facilitate the first comprehensive prehistoric landscape chronology for the southern Levant east of the Jordan Rift. In the eastern Hasa basin, the uppermost of three cut and fill surfaces (>20 m) is linked to massive fossil spring deposits and an early Middle Paleolithic occupation (100,000–70,000 B. P.), suggestive of considerably wetter climates. A later Middle Paleolithic occupation may be synchronous with the emergence of Pleistocene Lake Hasa (ca. 70,000 B. P.). Peak lake levels were attained 40,000 years ago. Dates proliferate after 25,000 B. P. and register recession of Lake Hasa (ca. 20,000 B. P.), an intervening erosional phase, and the initiation of complex humid-desiccation cycles for the terminal Pleistocene—Holocene (17,000–9,000 B. P.). The contemporary Wadi el Hasa channel began aggrading its floodplain after 8000 B. P. and was incised to its present depths 1000–500 years ago. The prehistoric landscape history of the Hasa drainage is broadly synchronous with sequences in the Rift Valley and Negev desert and offers baseline chronologies for the Late Quaternary of eastern Jordan and the Arabian peninsula. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Assessment of soil erosion in a tropical mountain river basin of the southern Western Ghats,India using RUSLE and GIS

Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) model coupled with transport limited sediment delivery(TLSD) function was used to predict the longtime average annual soil loss, and to identify the critical erosion-/deposition-prone areas in a tropical mountain river basin, viz., Muthirapuzha River Basin(MRB; area=271.75 km~2), in the southern Western Ghats, India. Mean gross soil erosion in MRB is 14.36 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1), whereas mean net soil erosion(i.e., gross erosion-deposition) is only 3.60 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1)(i.e., roughly 25% of the gross erosion). Majority of the basin area(~86%) experiences only slight erosion(5 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1)), and nearly 3% of the area functions as depositional environment for the eroded sediments(e.g., the terraces of stream reaches, the gentle plains as well as the foot slopes of the plateau scarps and the terrain with concordant summits). Although mean gross soil erosion rates in the natural vegetation belts are relatively higher, compared to agriculture, settlement/built-up areas and tea plantation, the sediment transport efficiency in agricultural areas and tea plantation is significantly high,reflecting the role of human activities on accelerated soil erosion. In MRB, on a mean basis, 0.42 t of soil organic carbon(SOC) content is being eroded per hectare annually, and SOC loss from the 4th order subbasins shows considerable differences, mainly due to the spatial variability in the gross soil erosion rates among the sub-basins. The quantitative results, on soil erosion and deposition, modelled using RUSLE and TLSD, are expected to be beneficial while formulating comprehensive land management strategies for reducing the extent of soil degradation in tropical mountain river basins.     

Tellurium,selenium and cobalt enrichment in Neoproterozoic black shales,Gwna Group,UK: Deep marine trace element enrichment during the Second Great Oxygenation Event

Black shales of the late Neoproterozoic Gwna Group (570–580 Ma), UK, contain enrichments of tellurium (Te), selenium (Se) and cobalt (Co) relative to average shale compositions. The Te and Co enrichments bear comparison with those of ferromanganese crusts in the modern deep ocean. Gwna Group deposition coincides with the Second Great Oxidation Event, which had a significant effect on trace element fixation globally. Selenium and Te concentrations within these black shales indicate increased continental weathering rates, high biological productivity and corresponding increases in atmospheric O₂ concentrations. Cobalt, nickel (Ni) and arsenic (As) enrichments in this succession are secondary mineralisation phases. Demand for many of the trace elements found enriched in the Gwna Group black shales make their mechanisms of accumulation, and variations through the geological record, important to understand, and suggests that new resources may be sought based on black shale protoliths from this period.